Posterior Sampling via Autoregressive Generation

Real-world decision-making requires grappling with a perpetual lack of data as environments change; intelligent agents must comprehend uncertainty and actively gather information to resolve it. We propose a new framework for learning bandit algorithms from massive historical data, which we demonstrate in a cold-start recommendation problem. First, we use historical data to pretrain an autoregressive model to predict a sequence of repeated feedback/rewards (e.g., responses to news articles shown to different users over time). In learning to make accurate predictions, the model implicitly learns an informed prior based on rich action features (e.g., article headlines) and how to sharpen beliefs as more rewards are gathered (e.g., clicks as each article is recommended). At decision-time, we autoregressively sample (impute) an imagined sequence of rewards for each action, and choose the action with the largest average imputed reward. Far from a heuristic, our approach is an implementation of Thompson sampling (with a learned prior), a prominent active exploration algorithm. We prove our pretraining loss directly controls online decision-making performance, and we demonstrate our framework on a news recommendation task where we integrate end-to-end fine-tuning of a pretrained language model to process news article headline text to improve performance.

On the Limited Representational Power of Value Functions and its Links to Statistical (In)Efficiency

Identifying the trade-offs between model-based and model-free methods is a central question in reinforcement learning. Value-based methods offer substantial computational advantages and are sometimes just as statistically efficient as model-based methods. However, focusing on the core problem of policy evaluation, we show information about the transition dynamics may be impossible to represent in the space of value functions. We explore this through a series of case studies focused on structures that arises in many important problems. In several, there is no information loss and value-based methods are as statistically efficient as model based ones. In other closely-related examples, information loss is severe and value-based methods are severely outperformed. A deeper investigation points to the limitations of the representational power as the driver of the inefficiency, as opposed to failure in algorithm design.

Optimizing Adaptive Experiments: A Unified Approach to Regret Minimization and Best-Arm Identification

Practitioners conducting adaptive experiments often encounter two competing priorities: reducing the cost of experimentation by effectively assigning treatments during the experiment itself, and gathering information swiftly to conclude the experiment and implement a treatment across the population. Currently, the literature is divided, with studies on regret minimization addressing the former priority in isolation, and research on best-arm identification focusing solely on the latter. This paper proposes a unified model that accounts for both within-experiment performance and post-experiment outcomes. We then provide a sharp theory of optimal performance in large populations that unifies canonical results in the literature. This unification also uncovers novel insights. For example, the theory reveals that familiar algorithms, like the recently proposed top-two Thompson sampling algorithm, can be adapted to optimize a broad class of objectives by simply adjusting a single scalar parameter. In addition, the theory reveals that enormous reductions in experiment duration can sometimes be achieved with minimal impact on both within-experiment and post-experiment regret.

Countering Misinformation via Emotional Response Generation

The proliferation of misinformation on social media platforms (SMPs) poses a significant danger to public health, social cohesion and ultimately democracy. Previous research has shown how social correction can be an effective way to curb misinformation, by engaging directly in a constructive dialogue with users who spread -- often in good faith -- misleading messages. Although professional fact-checkers are crucial to debunking viral claims, they usually do not engage in conversations on social media. Thereby, significant effort has been made to automate the use of fact-checker material in social correction; however, no previous work has tried to integrate it with the style and pragmatics that are commonly employed in social media communication. To fill this gap, we present VerMouth, the first large-scale dataset comprising roughly 12 thousand claim-response pairs (linked to debunking articles), accounting for both SMP-style and basic emotions, two factors which have a significant role in misinformation credibility and spreading. To collect this dataset we used a technique based on an author-reviewer pipeline, which efficiently combines LLMs and human annotators to obtain high-quality data. We also provide comprehensive experiments showing how models trained on our proposed dataset have significant improvements in terms of output quality and generalization capabilities.

Benchmarking the Generation of Fact Checking Explanations

Fighting misinformation is a challenging, yet crucial, task. Despite the growing number of experts being involved in manual fact-checking, this activity is time-consuming and cannot keep up with the ever-increasing amount of Fake News produced daily. Hence, automating this process is necessary to help curb misinformation. Thus far, researchers have mainly focused on claim veracity classification. In this paper, instead, we address the generation of justifications (textual explanation of why a claim is classified as either true or false) and benchmark it with novel datasets and advanced baselines. In particular, we focus on summarization approaches over unstructured knowledge (i.e. news articles) and we experiment with several extractive and abstractive strategies. We employed two datasets with different styles and structures, in order to assess the generalizability of our findings. Results show that in justification production summarization benefits from the claim information, and, in particular, that a claim-driven extractive step improves abstractive summarization performances. Finally, we show that although cross-dataset experiments suffer from performance degradation, a unique model trained on a combination of the two datasets is able to retain style information in an efficient manner.

Impatient Bandits: Optimizing Recommendations for the Long-Term Without Delay

Recommender systems are a ubiquitous feature of online platforms. Increasingly, they are explicitly tasked with increasing users' long-term satisfaction. In this context, we study a content exploration task, which we formalize as a multi-armed bandit problem with delayed rewards. We observe that there is an apparent trade-off in choosing the learning signal: Waiting for the full reward to become available might take several weeks, hurting the rate at which learning happens, whereas measuring short-term proxy rewards reflects the actual long-term goal only imperfectly. We address this challenge in two steps. First, we develop a predictive model of delayed rewards that incorporates all information obtained to date. Full observations as well as partial (short or medium-term) outcomes are combined through a Bayesian filter to obtain a probabilistic belief. Second, we devise a bandit algorithm that takes advantage of this new predictive model. The algorithm quickly learns to identify content aligned with long-term success by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation. We apply our approach to a podcast recommendation problem, where we seek to identify shows that users engage with repeatedly over two months. We empirically validate that our approach results in substantially better performance compared to approaches that either optimize for short-term proxies, or wait for the long-term outcome to be fully realized.

Neural Inventory Control in Networks via Hindsight Differentiable Policy Optimization

Inventory management offers unique opportunities for reliably evaluating and applying deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Rather than evaluate DRL algorithms by comparing against one another or against human experts, we can compare to the optimum itself in several problem classes with hidden structure. Our DRL methods consistently recover near-optimal policies in such settings, despite being applied with up to 600-dimensional raw state vectors. In others, they can vastly outperform problem-specific heuristics. To reliably apply DRL, we leverage two insights. First, one can directly optimize the hindsight performance of any policy using stochastic gradient descent. This uses (i) an ability to backtest any policy's performance on a subsample of historical demand observations, and (ii) the differentiability of the total cost incurred on any subsample with respect to policy parameters. Second, we propose a natural neural network architecture to address problems with weak (or aggregate) coupling constraints between locations in an inventory network. This architecture employs weight duplication for ``sibling'' locations in the network, and state summarization. We justify this architecture through an asymptotic guarantee, and empirically affirm its value in handling large-scale problems.

Optimizing Audio Recommendations for the Long-Term: A Reinforcement Learning Perspective

We study the problem of optimizing a recommender system for outcomes that occur over several weeks or months. We begin by drawing on reinforcement learning to formulate a comprehensive model of users' recurring relationships with a recommender system. Measurement, attribution, and coordination challenges complicate algorithm design. We describe careful modeling -- including a new representation of user state and key conditional independence assumptions -- which overcomes these challenges and leads to simple, testable recommender system prototypes. We apply our approach to a podcast recommender system that makes personalized recommendations to hundreds of millions of listeners. A/B tests demonstrate that purposefully optimizing for long-term outcomes leads to large performance gains over conventional approaches that optimize for short-term proxies.

An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Nonstationary Bandit Learning

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

On the Statistical Benefits of Temporal Difference Learning

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.