Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance $2$-$4\times$ more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works.

The Role of Permutation Invariance in Linear Mode Connectivity of Neural Networks

In this paper, we conjecture that if the permutation invariance of neural networks is taken into account, SGD solutions will likely have no barrier in the linear interpolation between them. Although it is a bold conjecture, we show how extensive empirical attempts fall short of refuting it. We further provide a preliminary theoretical result to support our conjecture. Our conjecture has implications for lottery ticket hypothesis, distributed training, and ensemble methods.

Exploring the Limits of Large Scale Pre-training

Recent developments in large-scale machine learning suggest that by scaling up data, model size and training time properly, one might observe that improvements in pre-training would transfer favorably to most downstream tasks. In this work, we systematically study this phenomena and establish that, as we increase the upstream accuracy, the performance of downstream tasks saturates. In particular, we investigate more than 4800 experiments on Vision Transformers, MLP-Mixers and ResNets with number of parameters ranging from ten million to ten billion, trained on the largest scale of available image data (JFT, ImageNet21K) and evaluated on more than 20 downstream image recognition tasks. We propose a model for downstream performance that reflects the saturation phenomena and captures the nonlinear relationship in performance of upstream and downstream tasks. Delving deeper to understand the reasons that give rise to these phenomena, we show that the saturation behavior we observe is closely related to the way that representations evolve through the layers of the models. We showcase an even more extreme scenario where performance on upstream and downstream are at odds with each other. That is, to have a better downstream performance, we need to hurt upstream accuracy.

Gradual Domain Adaptation in the Wild:When Intermediate Distributions are Absent

We focus on the problem of domain adaptation when the goal is shifting the model towards the target distribution, rather than learning domain invariant representations. It has been shown that under the following two assumptions: (a) access to samples from intermediate distributions, and (b) samples being annotated with the amount of change from the source distribution, self-training can be successfully applied on gradually shifted samples to adapt the model toward the target distribution. We hypothesize having (a) is enough to enable iterative self-training to slowly adapt the model to the target distribution, by making use of an implicit curriculum. In the case where (a) does not hold, we observe that iterative self-training falls short. We propose GIFT, a method that creates virtual samples from intermediate distributions by interpolating representations of examples from source and target domains. We evaluate an iterative-self-training method on datasets with natural distribution shifts, and show that when applied on top of other domain adaptation methods, it improves the performance of the model on the target dataset. We run an analysis on a synthetic dataset to show that in the presence of (a) iterative-self-training naturally forms a curriculum of samples. Furthermore, we show that when (a) does not hold, GIFT performs better than iterative self-training.

The Deep Bootstrap: Good Online Learners are Good Offline Generalizers

We propose a new framework for reasoning about generalization in deep learning. The core idea is to couple the Real World, where optimizers take stochastic gradient steps on the empirical loss, to an Ideal World, where optimizers take steps on the population loss. This leads to an alternate decomposition of test error into: (1) the Ideal World test error plus (2) the gap between the two worlds. If the gap (2) is universally small, this reduces the problem of generalization in offline learning to the problem of optimization in online learning. We then give empirical evidence that this gap between worlds can be small in realistic deep learning settings, in particular supervised image classification. For example, CNNs generalize better than MLPs on image distributions in the Real World, but this is "because" they optimize faster on the population loss in the Ideal World. This suggests our framework is a useful tool for understanding generalization in deep learning, and lays a foundation for future research in the area.

What is being transferred in transfer learning?

One desired capability for machines is the ability to transfer their knowledge of one domain to another where data is (usually) scarce. Despite ample adaptation of transfer learning in various deep learning applications, we yet do not understand what enables a successful transfer and which part of the network is responsible for that. In this paper, we provide new tools and analyses to address these fundamental questions. Through a series of analyses on transferring to block-shuffled images, we separate the effect of feature reuse from learning low-level statistics of data and show that some benefit of transfer learning comes from the latter. We present that when training from pre-trained weights, the model stays in the same basin in the loss landscape and different instances of such model are similar in feature space and close in parameter space.

The intriguing role of module criticality in the generalization of deep networks

We study the phenomenon that some modules of deep neural networks (DNNs) are more critical than others. Meaning that rewinding their parameter values back to initialization, while keeping other modules fixed at the trained parameters, results in a large drop in the network's performance. Our analysis reveals interesting properties of the loss landscape which leads us to propose a complexity measure, called module criticality, based on the shape of the valleys that connects the initial and final values of the module parameters. We formulate how generalization relates to the module criticality, and show that this measure is able to explain the superior generalization performance of some architectures over others, whereas earlier measures fail to do so.

Size-free generalization bounds for convolutional neural networks

We prove bounds on the generalization error of convolutional networks. The bounds are in terms of the training loss, the number of parameters, the Lipschitz constant of the loss and the distance from the weights to the initial weights. They are independent of the number of pixels in the input, and the height and width of hidden feature maps. We present experiments with CIFAR-10 and a scaled-down variant, along with varying hyperparameters of a deep convolutional network, comparing our bounds with practical generalization gaps.