Multi-Aspect Temporal Network Embedding: A Mixture of Hawkes Process View

Recent years have witnessed the tremendous research interests in network embedding. Extant works have taken the neighborhood formation as the critical information to reveal the inherent dynamics of network structures, and suggested encoding temporal edge formation sequences to capture the historical influences of neighbors. In this paper, however, we argue that the edge formation can be attributed to a variety of driving factors including the temporal influence, which is better referred to as multiple aspects. As a matter of fact, different node aspects can drive the formation of distinctive neighbors, giving birth to the multi-aspect embedding that relates to but goes beyond a temporal scope. Along this vein, we propose a Mixture of Hawkes-based Temporal Network Embeddings (MHNE) model to capture the aspect-driven neighborhood formation of networks. In MHNE, we encode the multi-aspect embeddings into the mixture of Hawkes processes to gain the advantages in modeling the excitation effects and the latent aspects. Specifically, a graph attention mechanism is used to assign different weights to account for the excitation effects of history events, while a Gumbel-Softmax is plugged in to derive the distribution over the aspects. Extensive experiments on 8 different temporal networks have demonstrated the great performance of the multi-aspect embeddings obtained by MHNE in comparison with the state-of-the-art methods.

Social Media Would Not Lie: Prediction of the 2016 Taiwan Election via Online Heterogeneous Data

The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing research, we take a "signal" view of heterogeneous information and adopt the Kalman filter to fuse multiple signals into daily vote predictions for the candidates. We also consider events that influenced the election in a quantitative manner based on the so-called event study model that originated in the field of financial research. We obtained the following interesting findings. First, public opinions in online media dominate traditional polls in Taiwan election prediction in terms of both predictive power and timeliness. But offline polls can still function on alleviating the sample bias of online opinions. Second, although online signals converge as election day approaches, the simple Facebook "Like" is consistently the strongest indicator of the election result. Third, most influential events have a strong connection to cross-strait relations, and the Chou Tzu-yu flag incident followed by the apology video one day before the election increased the vote share of Tsai Ing-Wen by 3.66%. This research justifies the predictive power of online media in politics and the advantages of information fusion. The combined use of the Kalman filter and the event study method contributes to the data-driven political analytics paradigm for both prediction and attribution purposes.