Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

NAS-Bench-x11 and the Power of Learning Curves

While early research in neural architecture search (NAS) required extreme computational resources, the recent releases of tabular and surrogate benchmarks have greatly increased the speed and reproducibility of NAS research. However, two of the most popular benchmarks do not provide the full training information for each architecture. As a result, on these benchmarks it is not possible to run many types of multi-fidelity techniques, such as learning curve extrapolation, that require evaluating architectures at arbitrary epochs. In this work, we present a method using singular value decomposition and noise modeling to create surrogate benchmarks, NAS-Bench-111, NAS-Bench-311, and NAS-Bench-NLP11, that output the full training information for each architecture, rather than just the final validation accuracy. We demonstrate the power of using the full training information by introducing a learning curve extrapolation framework to modify single-fidelity algorithms, showing that it leads to improvements over popular single-fidelity algorithms which claimed to be state-of-the-art upon release. Our code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/automl/nas-bench-x11.

CARL: A Benchmark for Contextual and Adaptive Reinforcement Learning

While Reinforcement Learning has made great strides towards solving ever more complicated tasks, many algorithms are still brittle to even slight changes in their environment. This is a limiting factor for real-world applications of RL. Although the research community continuously aims at improving both robustness and generalization of RL algorithms, unfortunately it still lacks an open-source set of well-defined benchmark problems based on a consistent theoretical framework, which allows comparing different approaches in a fair, reliable and reproducibleway. To fill this gap, we propose CARL, a collection of well-known RL environments extended to contextual RL problems to study generalization. We show the urgent need of such benchmarks by demonstrating that even simple toy environments become challenging for commonly used approaches if different contextual instances of this task have to be considered. Furthermore, CARL allows us to provide first evidence that disentangling representation learning of the states from the policy learning with the context facilitates better generalization. By providing variations of diverse benchmarks from classic control, physical simulations, games and a real-world application of RNA design, CARL will allow the community to derive many more such insights on a solid empirical foundation.

SMAC3: A Versatile Bayesian Optimization Package for Hyperparameter Optimization

Algorithm parameters, in particular hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms, can substantially impact their performance. To support users in determining well-performing hyperparameter configurations for their algorithms, datasets and applications at hand, SMAC3 offers a robust and flexible framework for Bayesian Optimization, which can improve performance within a few evaluations. It offers several facades and pre-sets for typical use cases, such as optimizing hyperparameters, solving low dimensional continuous (artificial) global optimization problems and configuring algorithms to perform well across multiple problem instances. The SMAC3 package is available under a permissive BSD-license at https://github.com/automl/SMAC3.

HPOBench: A Collection of Reproducible Multi-Fidelity Benchmark Problems for HPO

To achieve peak predictive performance, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a crucial component of machine learning and its applications. Over the last years,the number of efficient algorithms and tools for HPO grew substantially. At the same time, the community is still lacking realistic, diverse, computationally cheap,and standardized benchmarks. This is especially the case for multi-fidelity HPO methods. To close this gap, we propose HPOBench, which includes 7 existing and 5 new benchmark families, with in total more than 100 multi-fidelity benchmark problems. HPOBench allows to run this extendable set of multi-fidelity HPO benchmarks in a reproducible way by isolating and packaging the individual benchmarks in containers. It also provides surrogate and tabular benchmarks for computationally affordable yet statistically sound evaluations. To demonstrate the broad compatibility of HPOBench and its usefulness, we conduct an exemplary large-scale study evaluating 6 well known multi-fidelity HPO tools.

Multi-headed Neural Ensemble Search

Ensembles of CNN models trained with different seeds (also known as Deep Ensembles) are known to achieve superior performance over a single copy of the CNN. Neural Ensemble Search (NES) can further boost performance by adding architectural diversity. However, the scope of NES remains prohibitive under limited computational resources. In this work, we extend NES to multi-headed ensembles, which consist of a shared backbone attached to multiple prediction heads. Unlike Deep Ensembles, these multi-headed ensembles can be trained end to end, which enables us to leverage one-shot NAS methods to optimize an ensemble objective. With extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that multi-headed ensemble search finds robust ensembles 3 times faster, while having comparable performance to other ensemble search methods, in both predictive performance and uncertainty calibration.

Bag of Tricks for Neural Architecture Search

While neural architecture search methods have been successful in previous years and led to new state-of-the-art performance on various problems, they have also been criticized for being unstable, being highly sensitive with respect to their hyperparameters, and often not performing better than random search. To shed some light on this issue, we discuss some practical considerations that help improve the stability, efficiency and overall performance.

Regularization is all you Need: Simple Neural Nets can Excel on Tabular Data

Tabular datasets are the last "unconquered castle" for deep learning, with traditional ML methods like Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees still performing strongly even against recent specialized neural architectures. In this paper, we hypothesize that the key to boosting the performance of neural networks lies in rethinking the joint and simultaneous application of a large set of modern regularization techniques. As a result, we propose regularizing plain Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) networks by searching for the optimal combination/cocktail of 13 regularization techniques for each dataset using a joint optimization over the decision on which regularizers to apply and their subsidiary hyperparameters. We empirically assess the impact of these regularization cocktails for MLPs on a large-scale empirical study comprising 40 tabular datasets and demonstrate that (i) well-regularized plain MLPs significantly outperform recent state-of-the-art specialized neural network architectures, and (ii) they even outperform strong traditional ML methods, such as XGBoost.

TempoRL: Learning When to Act

Reinforcement learning is a powerful approach to learn behaviour through interactions with an environment. However, behaviours are usually learned in a purely reactive fashion, where an appropriate action is selected based on an observation. In this form, it is challenging to learn when it is necessary to execute new decisions. This makes learning inefficient, especially in environments that need various degrees of fine and coarse control. To address this, we propose a proactive setting in which the agent not only selects an action in a state but also for how long to commit to that action. Our TempoRL approach introduces skip connections between states and learns a skip-policy for repeating the same action along these skips. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TempoRL on a variety of traditional and deep RL environments, showing that our approach is capable of learning successful policies up to an order of magnitude faster than vanilla Q-learning.

Self-Paced Context Evaluation for Contextual Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has made a lot of advances for solving a single problem in a given environment; but learning policies that generalize to unseen variations of a problem remains challenging. To improve sample efficiency for learning on such instances of a problem domain, we present Self-Paced Context Evaluation (SPaCE). Based on self-paced learning, \spc automatically generates \task curricula online with little computational overhead. To this end, SPaCE leverages information contained in state values during training to accelerate and improve training performance as well as generalization capabilities to new instances from the same problem domain. Nevertheless, SPaCE is independent of the problem domain at hand and can be applied on top of any RL agent with state-value function approximation. We demonstrate SPaCE's ability to speed up learning of different value-based RL agents on two environments, showing better generalization capabilities and up to 10x faster learning compared to naive approaches such as round robin or SPDRL, as the closest state-of-the-art approach.