A Joint Learning Approach for Semi-supervised Neural Topic Modeling

Topic models are some of the most popular ways to represent textual data in an interpret-able manner. Recently, advances in deep generative models, specifically auto-encoding variational Bayes (AEVB), have led to the introduction of unsupervised neural topic models, which leverage deep generative models as opposed to traditional statistics-based topic models. We extend upon these neural topic models by introducing the Label-Indexed Neural Topic Model (LI-NTM), which is, to the extent of our knowledge, the first effective upstream semi-supervised neural topic model. We find that LI-NTM outperforms existing neural topic models in document reconstruction benchmarks, with the most notable results in low labeled data regimes and for data-sets with informative labels; furthermore, our jointly learned classifier outperforms baseline classifiers in ablation studies.

Wide Mean-Field Bayesian Neural Networks Ignore the Data

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) combine the expressive power of deep learning with the advantages of Bayesian formalism. In recent years, the analysis of wide, deep BNNs has provided theoretical insight into their priors and posteriors. However, we have no analogous insight into their posteriors under approximate inference. In this work, we show that mean-field variational inference entirely fails to model the data when the network width is large and the activation function is odd. Specifically, for fully-connected BNNs with odd activation functions and a homoscedastic Gaussian likelihood, we show that the optimal mean-field variational posterior predictive (i.e., function space) distribution converges to the prior predictive distribution as the width tends to infinity. We generalize aspects of this result to other likelihoods. Our theoretical results are suggestive of underfitting behavior previously observered in BNNs. While our convergence bounds are non-asymptotic and constants in our analysis can be computed, they are currently too loose to be applicable in standard training regimes. Finally, we show that the optimal approximate posterior need not tend to the prior if the activation function is not odd, showing that our statements cannot be generalized arbitrarily.

Generalizing Off-Policy Evaluation From a Causal Perspective For Sequential Decision-Making

Assessing the effects of a policy based on observational data from a different policy is a common problem across several high-stake decision-making domains, and several off-policy evaluation (OPE) techniques have been proposed. However, these methods largely formulate OPE as a problem disassociated from the process used to generate the data (i.e. structural assumptions in the form of a causal graph). We argue that explicitly highlighting this association has important implications on our understanding of the fundamental limits of OPE. First, this implies that current formulation of OPE corresponds to a narrow set of tasks, i.e. a specific causal estimand which is focused on prospective evaluation of policies over populations or sub-populations. Second, we demonstrate how this association motivates natural desiderata to consider a general set of causal estimands, particularly extending the role of OPE for counterfactual off-policy evaluation at the level of individuals of the population. A precise description of the causal estimand highlights which OPE estimands are identifiable from observational data under the stated generative assumptions. For those OPE estimands that are not identifiable, the causal perspective further highlights where more experimental data is necessary, and highlights situations where human expertise can aid identification and estimation. Furthermore, many formalisms of OPE overlook the role of uncertainty entirely in the estimation process.We demonstrate how specifically characterising the causal estimand highlights the different sources of uncertainty and when human expertise can naturally manage this uncertainty. We discuss each of these aspects as actionable desiderata for future OPE research at scale and in-line with practical utility.

Identification of Subgroups With Similar Benefits in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation

Off-policy policy evaluation methods for sequential decision making can be used to help identify if a proposed decision policy is better than a current baseline policy. However, a new decision policy may be better than a baseline policy for some individuals but not others. This has motivated a push towards personalization and accurate per-state estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Given the limited data present in many important applications, individual predictions can come at a cost to accuracy and confidence in such predictions. We develop a method to balance the need for personalization with confident predictions by identifying subgroups where it is possible to confidently estimate the expected difference in a new decision policy relative to a baseline. We propose a novel loss function that accounts for uncertainty during the subgroup partitioning phase. In experiments, we show that our method can be used to form accurate predictions of HTEs where other methods struggle.

On Learning Prediction-Focused Mixtures

Probabilistic models help us encode latent structures that both model the data and are ideally also useful for specific downstream tasks. Among these, mixture models and their time-series counterparts, hidden Markov models, identify discrete components in the data. In this work, we focus on a constrained capacity setting, where we want to learn a model with relatively few components (e.g. for interpretability purposes). To maintain prediction performance, we introduce prediction-focused modeling for mixtures, which automatically selects the dimensions relevant to the prediction task. Our approach identifies relevant signal from the input, outperforms models that are not prediction-focused, and is easy to optimize; we also characterize when prediction-focused modeling can be expected to work.

Learning Predictive and Interpretable Timeseries Summaries from ICU Data

Machine learning models that utilize patient data across time (rather than just the most recent measurements) have increased performance for many risk stratification tasks in the intensive care unit. However, many of these models and their learned representations are complex and therefore difficult for clinicians to interpret, creating challenges for validation. Our work proposes a new procedure to learn summaries of clinical time-series that are both predictive and easily understood by humans. Specifically, our summaries consist of simple and intuitive functions of clinical data (e.g. falling mean arterial pressure). Our learned summaries outperform traditional interpretable model classes and achieve performance comparable to state-of-the-art deep learning models on an in-hospital mortality classification task.

Comparison and Unification of Three Regularization Methods in Batch Reinforcement Learning

In batch reinforcement learning, there can be poorly explored state-action pairs resulting in poorly learned, inaccurate models and poorly performing associated policies. Various regularization methods can mitigate the problem of learning overly-complex models in Markov decision processes (MDPs), however they operate in technically and intuitively distinct ways and lack a common form in which to compare them. This paper unifies three regularization methods in a common framework -- a weighted average transition matrix. Considering regularization methods in this common form illuminates how the MDP structure and the state-action pair distribution of the batch data set influence the relative performance of regularization methods. We confirm intuitions generated from the common framework by empirical evaluation across a range of MDPs and data collection policies.

Pre-emptive learning-to-defer for sequential medical decision-making under uncertainty

We propose SLTD (`Sequential Learning-to-Defer') a framework for learning-to-defer pre-emptively to an expert in sequential decision-making settings. SLTD measures the likelihood of improving value of deferring now versus later based on the underlying uncertainty in dynamics. In particular, we focus on the non-stationarity in the dynamics to accurately learn the deferral policy. We demonstrate our pre-emptive deferral can identify regions where the current policy has a low probability of improving outcomes. SLTD outperforms existing non-sequential learning-to-defer baselines, whilst reducing overall uncertainty on multiple synthetic and real-world simulators with non-stationary dynamics. We further derive and decompose the propagated (long-term) uncertainty for interpretation by the domain expert to provide an indication of when the model's performance is reliable.

State Relevance for Off-Policy Evaluation

Importance sampling-based estimators for off-policy evaluation (OPE) are valued for their simplicity, unbiasedness, and reliance on relatively few assumptions. However, the variance of these estimators is often high, especially when trajectories are of different lengths. In this work, we introduce Omitting-States-Irrelevant-to-Return Importance Sampling (OSIRIS), an estimator which reduces variance by strategically omitting likelihood ratios associated with certain states. We formalize the conditions under which OSIRIS is unbiased and has lower variance than ordinary importance sampling, and we demonstrate these properties empirically.

Online structural kernel selection for mobile health

Motivated by the need for efficient and personalized learning in mobile health, we investigate the problem of online kernel selection for Gaussian Process regression in the multi-task setting. We propose a novel generative process on the kernel composition for this purpose. Our method demonstrates that trajectories of kernel evolutions can be transferred between users to improve learning and that the kernels themselves are meaningful for an mHealth prediction goal.