Conditionally valid Probabilistic Conformal Prediction

We develop a new method for creating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Most existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and probabilistic conformal prediction, only offer marginal coverage guarantees. Our approach extends these methods to achieve conditional coverage, which is essential for many practical applications. While exact conditional guarantees are impossible without assumptions on the data distribution, we provide non-asymptotic bounds that explicitly depend on the quality of the available estimate of the conditional distribution. Our confidence sets are highly adaptive to the local structure of the data, making them particularly useful in high heteroskedasticity situations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive simulations, showing that it outperforms existing methods in terms of conditional coverage and improves the reliability of statistical inference in a wide range of applications.

Theoretical Guarantees for Variational Inference with Fixed-Variance Mixture of Gaussians

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical properties of VI have only received attention recently, and mostly when the parametric family is the one of Gaussians. This work aims to contribute to the theoretical study of VI in the non-Gaussian case by investigating the setting of Mixture of Gaussians with fixed covariance and constant weights. In this view, VI over this specific family can be casted as the minimization of a Mollified relative entropy, i.e. the KL between the convolution (with respect to a Gaussian kernel) of an atomic measure supported on Diracs, and the target distribution. The support of the atomic measure corresponds to the localization of the Gaussian components. Hence, solving variational inference becomes equivalent to optimizing the positions of the Diracs (the particles), which can be done through gradient descent and takes the form of an interacting particle system. We study two sources of error of variational inference in this context when optimizing the mollified relative entropy. The first one is an optimization result, that is a descent lemma establishing that the algorithm decreases the objective at each iteration. The second one is an approximation error, that upper bounds the objective between an optimal finite mixture and the target distribution.

Variational inference, Mixture of Gaussians, Bayesian Machine Learning

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical properties of VI have only received attention recently, and mostly when the parametric family is the one of Gaussians. This work aims to contribute to the theoretical study of VI in the non-Gaussian case by investigating the setting of Mixture of Gaussians with fixed covariance and constant weights. In this view, VI over this specific family can be casted as the minimization of a Mollified relative entropy, i.e. the KL between the convolution (with respect to a Gaussian kernel) of an atomic measure supported on Diracs, and the target distribution. The support of the atomic measure corresponds to the localization of the Gaussian components. Hence, solving variational inference becomes equivalent to optimizing the positions of the Diracs (the particles), which can be done through gradient descent and takes the form of an interacting particle system. We study two sources of error of variational inference in this context when optimizing the mollified relative entropy. The first one is an optimization result, that is a descent lemma establishing that the algorithm decreases the objective at each iteration. The second one is an approximation error, that upper bounds the objective between an optimal finite mixture and the target distribution.

Gaussian Approximation and Multiplier Bootstrap for Polyak-Ruppert Averaged Linear Stochastic Approximation with Applications to TD Learning

In this paper, we obtain the Berry-Esseen bound for multivariate normal approximation for the Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates of the linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithm with decreasing step size. Our findings reveal that the fastest rate of normal approximation is achieved when setting the most aggressive step size $\alpha_{k} \asymp k^{-1/2}$. Moreover, we prove the non-asymptotic validity of the confidence intervals for parameter estimation with LSA based on multiplier bootstrap. This procedure updates the LSA estimate together with a set of randomly perturbed LSA estimates upon the arrival of subsequent observations. We illustrate our findings in the setting of temporal difference learning with linear function approximation.

ReALLM: A general framework for LLM compression and fine-tuning

We introduce ReALLM, a novel approach for compression and memory-efficient adaptation of pre-trained language models that encompasses most of the post-training quantization and fine-tuning methods for a budget of <4 bits. Pre-trained matrices are decomposed into a high-precision low-rank component and a vector-quantized latent representation (using an autoencoder). During the fine-tuning step, only the low-rank components are updated. Our results show that pre-trained matrices exhibit different patterns. ReALLM adapts the shape of the encoder (small/large embedding, high/low bit VQ, etc.) to each matrix. ReALLM proposes to represent each matrix with a small embedding on $b$ bits and a neural decoder model $\mathcal{D}_\phi$ with its weights on $b_\phi$ bits. The decompression of a matrix requires only one embedding and a single forward pass with the decoder. Our weight-only quantization algorithm yields the best results on language generation tasks (C4 and WikiText-2) for a budget of $3$ bits without any training. With a budget of $2$ bits, ReALLM achieves state-of-the art performance after fine-tuning on a small calibration dataset.

Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling for Denoising Diffusion Priors

Interest in the use of Denoising Diffusion Models (DDM) as priors for solving inverse Bayesian problems has recently increased significantly. However, sampling from the resulting posterior distribution poses a challenge. To solve this problem, previous works have proposed approximations to bias the drift term of the diffusion. In this work, we take a different approach and utilize the specific structure of the DDM prior to define a set of intermediate and simpler posterior sampling problems, resulting in a lower approximation error compared to previous methods. We empirically demonstrate the reconstruction capability of our method for general linear inverse problems using synthetic examples and various image restoration tasks.

Incentivized Learning in Principal-Agent Bandit Games

This work considers a repeated principal-agent bandit game, where the principal can only interact with her environment through the agent. The principal and the agent have misaligned objectives and the choice of action is only left to the agent. However, the principal can influence the agent's decisions by offering incentives which add up to his rewards. The principal aims to iteratively learn an incentive policy to maximize her own total utility. This framework extends usual bandit problems and is motivated by several practical applications, such as healthcare or ecological taxation, where traditionally used mechanism design theories often overlook the learning aspect of the problem. We present nearly optimal (with respect to a horizon $T$) learning algorithms for the principal's regret in both multi-armed and linear contextual settings. Finally, we support our theoretical guarantees through numerical experiments.

SCAFFLSA: Quantifying and Eliminating Heterogeneity Bias in Federated Linear Stochastic Approximation and Temporal Difference Learning

In this paper, we perform a non-asymptotic analysis of the federated linear stochastic approximation (FedLSA) algorithm. We explicitly quantify the bias introduced by local training with heterogeneous agents, and investigate the sample complexity of the algorithm. We show that the communication complexity of FedLSA scales polynomially with the desired precision $\epsilon$, which limits the benefits of federation. To overcome this, we propose SCAFFLSA, a novel variant of FedLSA, that uses control variates to correct the bias of local training, and prove its convergence without assumptions on statistical heterogeneity. We apply the proposed methodology to federated temporal difference learning with linear function approximation, and analyze the corresponding complexity improvements.

Efficient Conformal Prediction under Data Heterogeneity

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often violated in practice. Existing approaches for tackling non-exchangeability lead to methods that are not computable beyond the simplest examples. This work introduces a new efficient approach to CP that produces provably valid confidence sets for fairly general non-exchangeable data distributions. We illustrate the general theory with applications to the challenging setting of federated learning under data heterogeneity between agents. Our method allows constructing provably valid personalized prediction sets for agents in a fully federated way. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a series of experiments on real-world datasets.

Model-free Posterior Sampling via Learning Rate Randomization

In this paper, we introduce Randomized Q-learning (RandQL), a novel randomized model-free algorithm for regret minimization in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). To the best of our knowledge, RandQL is the first tractable model-free posterior sampling-based algorithm. We analyze the performance of RandQL in both tabular and non-tabular metric space settings. In tabular MDPs, RandQL achieves a regret bound of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{H^{5}SAT})$, where $H$ is the planning horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the number of episodes. For a metric state-action space, RandQL enjoys a regret bound of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^{5/2} T^{(d_z+1)/(d_z+2)})$, where $d_z$ denotes the zooming dimension. Notably, RandQL achieves optimistic exploration without using bonuses, relying instead on a novel idea of learning rate randomization. Our empirical study shows that RandQL outperforms existing approaches on baseline exploration environments.