Neural general circulation models optimized to predict satellite-based precipitation observations

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.

Neural General Circulation Models

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present the first GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with ML components, and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best ML and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with ML models for 1-10 day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for 1-15 day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics such as global mean temperature for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140 km resolution exhibit emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs, and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.

Learning to correct spectral methods for simulating turbulent flows

Despite their ubiquity throughout science and engineering, only a handful of partial differential equations (PDEs) have analytical, or closed-form solutions. This motivates a vast amount of classical work on numerical simulation of PDEs and more recently, a whirlwind of research into data-driven techniques leveraging machine learning (ML). A recent line of work indicates that a hybrid of classical numerical techniques with machine learning can offer significant improvements over either approach alone. In this work, we show that the choice of the numerical scheme is crucial when incorporating physics-based priors. We build upon Fourier-based spectral methods, which are considerably more efficient than other numerical schemes for simulating PDEs with smooth and periodic solutions. Specifically, we develop ML-augmented spectral solvers for three model PDEs of fluid dynamics, which improve upon the accuracy of standard spectral solvers at the same resolution. We also demonstrate a handful of key design principles for combining machine learning and numerical methods for solving PDEs.

Learned Coarse Models for Efficient Turbulence Simulation

Turbulence simulation with classical numerical solvers requires very high-resolution grids to accurately resolve dynamics. Here we train learned simulators at low spatial and temporal resolutions to capture turbulent dynamics generated at high resolution. We show that our proposed model can simulate turbulent dynamics more accurately than classical numerical solvers at the same low resolutions across various scientifically relevant metrics. Our model is trained end-to-end from data and is capable of learning a range of challenging chaotic and turbulent dynamics at low resolution, including trajectories generated by the state-of-the-art Athena++ engine. We show that our simpler, general-purpose architecture outperforms various more specialized, turbulence-specific architectures from the learned turbulence simulation literature. In general, we see that learned simulators yield unstable trajectories; however, we show that tuning training noise and temporal downsampling solves this problem. We also find that while generalization beyond the training distribution is a challenge for learned models, training noise, convolutional architectures, and added loss constraints can help. Broadly, we conclude that our learned simulator outperforms traditional solvers run on coarser grids, and emphasize that simple design choices can offer stability and robust generalization.

Learning ground states of quantum Hamiltonians with graph networks

Solving for the lowest energy eigenstate of the many-body Schrodinger equation is a cornerstone problem that hinders understanding of a variety of quantum phenomena. The difficulty arises from the exponential nature of the Hilbert space which casts the governing equations as an eigenvalue problem of exponentially large, structured matrices. Variational methods approach this problem by searching for the best approximation within a lower-dimensional variational manifold. In this work we use graph neural networks to define a structured variational manifold and optimize its parameters to find high quality approximations of the lowest energy solutions on a diverse set of Heisenberg Hamiltonians. Using graph networks we learn distributed representations that by construction respect underlying physical symmetries of the problem and generalize to problems of larger size. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on a set of quantum many-body benchmark problems and works well on problems whose solutions are not positive-definite. The discussed techniques hold promise of being a useful tool for studying quantum many-body systems and providing insights into optimization and implicit modeling of exponentially-sized objects.

Variational Data Assimilation with a Learned Inverse Observation Operator

Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a cornerstone of large scale forecasting applications such as numerical weather prediction. As such, it is implemented in current operational systems of weather forecasting agencies across the globe. However, finding a good initial state poses a difficult optimization problem in part due to the non-invertible relationship between physical states and their corresponding observations. We learn a mapping from observational data to physical states and show how it can be used to improve optimizability. We employ this mapping in two ways: to better initialize the non-convex optimization problem, and to reformulate the objective function in better behaved physics space instead of observation space. Our experimental results for the Lorenz96 model and a two-dimensional turbulent fluid flow demonstrate that this procedure significantly improves forecast quality for chaotic systems.

Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics

Numerical simulation of fluids plays an essential role in modeling many physical phenomena, such as weather, climate, aerodynamics and plasma physics. Fluids are well described by the Navier-Stokes equations, but solving these equations at scale remains daunting, limited by the computational cost of resolving the smallest spatiotemporal features. This leads to unfavorable trade-offs between accuracy and tractability. Here we use end-to-end deep learning to improve approximations inside computational fluid dynamics for modeling two-dimensional turbulent flows. For both direct numerical simulation of turbulence and large eddy simulation, our results are as accurate as baseline solvers with 8-10x finer resolution in each spatial dimension, resulting in 40-80x fold computational speedups. Our method remains stable during long simulations, and generalizes to forcing functions and Reynolds numbers outside of the flows where it is trained, in contrast to black box machine learning approaches. Our approach exemplifies how scientific computing can leverage machine learning and hardware accelerators to improve simulations without sacrificing accuracy or generalization.