When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction

Predicting individual panic emotional arousal timing before manifestation is essential for proactive emergency intervention. Existing methods incorporate cognitive elements but none explicitly model the emotional arousal process, making them ill-suited for emotional arousal timing prediction. We argue that grounding prediction in appraisal emotion theory is necessary because it explicitly models this process, but three problems must be solved. (1) Appraisal theory posits that emotion arises from simultaneous evaluation across multiple threat dimensions, yet no prior work fuses these inputs into risk perception. (2) Existing cognitive models lack an Emotion node, decoupling threat appraisal from emotional arousal and forcing emotions to be inferred indirectly from behaviors. (3) Given their generalizable cognitive reasoning, current approaches adopt LLMs as the primary decision-maker, yet overlook the fragility and hallucination-proneness of their outputs. To address these issues, we introduce PanicCognitivePath (PCP), a framework that addresses all three. A Psychological Safety Distance (PSD) model, grounded in psychological distance theory, maps four-domain signals into a unified risk metric as the entry condition for subsequent cognitive reasoning. An explicit Emotion node grounded in appraisal emotion theory is introduced into BDI, forming a Belief-Desire-Emotion-Intention (BDEI) pathway. Agents whose risk metric exceeds the PSD threshold enter this pathway, coupling threat appraisal directly to emotional arousal. The BDEI pathway governs all state transitions while the LLM is confined to parameter estimation for the Belief-to-Desire transition, confining hallucinations to a single step and preventing error propagation. Experiments on Hurricane Sandy show PCP improves arousal timing accuracy by 10.68% over baselines, reduces peak count error to 7.07%.

Psychology-driven LLM Agents for Explainable Panic Prediction on Social Media during Sudden Disaster Events

During sudden disaster events, accurately predicting public panic sentiment on social media is crucial for proactive governance and crisis management. Current efforts on this problem face three main challenges: lack of finely annotated data hinders emotion prediction studies, unmodeled risk perception causes prediction inaccuracies, and insufficient interpretability of panic formation mechanisms. We address these issues by proposing a Psychology-driven generative Agent framework (PsychoAgent) for explainable panic prediction based on emotion arousal theory. Specifically, we first construct a fine-grained open panic emotion dataset (namely COPE) via human-large language models (LLMs) collaboration to mitigate semantic bias. Then, we develop a framework integrating cross-domain heterogeneous data grounded in psychological mechanisms to model risk perception and cognitive differences in emotion generation. To enhance interpretability, we design an LLM-based role-playing agent that simulates individual psychological chains through dedicatedly designed prompts. Experimental results on our annotated dataset show that PsychoAgent improves panic emotion prediction performance by 12.6% to 21.7% compared to baseline models. Furthermore, the explainability and generalization of our approach is validated. Crucially, this represents a paradigm shift from opaque "data-driven fitting" to transparent "role-based simulation with mechanistic interpretation" for panic emotion prediction during emergencies. Our implementation is publicly available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PsychoAgent-19DD.

DLW-CI: A Dynamic Likelihood-Weighted Cooperative Infotaxis Approach for Multi-Source Search in Urban Environments Using Consumer Drone Networks

Consumer-grade drones equipped with low-cost sensors have emerged as a cornerstone of Autonomous Intelligent Systems (AISs) for environmental monitoring and hazardous substance detection in urban environments. However, existing research primarily addresses single-source search problems, overlooking the complexities of real-world urban scenarios where both the location and quantity of hazardous sources remain unknown. To address this issue, we propose the Dynamic Likelihood-Weighted Cooperative Infotaxis (DLW-CI) approach for consumer drone networks. Our approach enhances multi-drone collaboration in AISs by combining infotaxis (a cognitive search strategy) with optimized source term estimation and an innovative cooperative mechanism. Specifically, we introduce a novel source term estimation method that utilizes multiple parallel particle filters, with each filter dedicated to estimating the parameters of a potentially unknown source within the search scene. Furthermore, we develop a cooperative mechanism based on dynamic likelihood weights to prevent multiple drones from simultaneously estimating and searching for the same source, thus optimizing the energy efficiency and search coverage of the consumer AIS. Experimental results demonstrate that the DLW-CI approach significantly outperforms baseline methods regarding success rate, accuracy, and root mean square error, particularly in scenarios with relatively few sources, regardless of the presence of obstacles. Also, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified in a diffusion scenario generated by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Research findings indicate that our approach could improve source estimation accuracy and search efficiency by consumer drone-based AISs, making a valuable contribution to environmental safety monitoring applications within smart city infrastructure.