Synthetic Augmentation in Imbalanced Learning: When It Helps, When It Hurts, and How Much to Add

Imbalanced classification, where one class is observed far less frequently than the other, often causes standard training procedures to prioritize the majority class and perform poorly on rare but important cases. A classic and widely used remedy is to augment the minority class with synthetic examples, but two basic questions remain under-resolved: when does synthetic augmentation actually help, and how many synthetic samples should be generated? We develop a unified statistical framework for synthetic augmentation in imbalanced learning, studying models trained on imbalanced data augmented with synthetic minority samples and evaluated under the balanced population risk. Our theory shows that synthetic data is not always beneficial. In a ``local symmetry" regime, imbalance is not the dominant source of error near the balanced optimum, so adding synthetic samples cannot improve learning rates and can even degrade performance by amplifying generator mismatch. When augmentation can help (a ``local asymmetry" regime), the optimal synthetic size depends on generator accuracy and on whether the generator's residual mismatch is directionally aligned with the intrinsic majority-minority shift. This structure can make the best synthetic size deviate from naive full balancing, sometimes by a small refinement and sometimes substantially when generator bias is systematic. Practically, we recommend Validation-Tuned Synthetic Size (VTSS): select the synthetic size by minimizing balanced validation loss over a range centered near the fully balanced baseline, while allowing meaningful departures when the data indicate them. Simulations and a real sepsis prediction study support the theory and illustrate when synthetic augmentation helps, when it cannot, and how to tune its quantity effectively.

Statistical Inference for Fuzzy Clustering

Clustering is a central tool in biomedical research for discovering heterogeneous patient subpopulations, where group boundaries are often diffuse rather than sharply separated. Traditional methods produce hard partitions, whereas soft clustering methods such as fuzzy $c$-means (FCM) allow mixed memberships and better capture uncertainty and gradual transitions. Despite the widespread use of FCM, principled statistical inference for fuzzy clustering remains limited. We develop a new framework for weighted fuzzy $c$-means (WFCM) for settings with potential cluster size imbalance. Cluster-specific weights rebalance the classical FCM criterion so that smaller clusters are not overwhelmed by dominant groups, and the weighted objective induces a normalized density model with scale parameter $σ$ and fuzziness parameter $m$. Estimation is performed via a blockwise majorize--minimize (MM) procedure that alternates closed-form membership and centroid updates with likelihood-based updates of $(σ,\bw)$. The intractable normalizing constant is approximated by importance sampling using a data-adaptive Gaussian mixture proposal. We further provide likelihood ratio tests for comparing cluster centers and bootstrap-based confidence intervals. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator, validate the method through simulations, and illustrate it using single-cell RNA-seq and Alzheimer disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data. These applications demonstrate stable uncertainty quantification and biologically meaningful soft memberships, ranging from well-separated cell populations under imbalance to a graded AD versus non-AD continuum consistent with disease progression.

Bias-Corrected Data Synthesis for Imbalanced Learning

Imbalanced data, where the positive samples represent only a small proportion compared to the negative samples, makes it challenging for classification problems to balance the false positive and false negative rates. A common approach to addressing the challenge involves generating synthetic data for the minority group and then training classification models with both observed and synthetic data. However, since the synthetic data depends on the observed data and fails to replicate the original data distribution accurately, prediction accuracy is reduced when the synthetic data is naively treated as the true data. In this paper, we address the bias introduced by synthetic data and provide consistent estimators for this bias by borrowing information from the majority group. We propose a bias correction procedure to mitigate the adverse effects of synthetic data, enhancing prediction accuracy while avoiding overfitting. This procedure is extended to broader scenarios with imbalanced data, such as imbalanced multi-task learning and causal inference. Theoretical properties, including bounds on bias estimation errors and improvements in prediction accuracy, are provided. Simulation results and data analysis on handwritten digit datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Integrated Analysis for Electronic Health Records with Structured and Sporadic Missingness

Objectives: We propose a novel imputation method tailored for Electronic Health Records (EHRs) with structured and sporadic missingness. Such missingness frequently arises in the integration of heterogeneous EHR datasets for downstream clinical applications. By addressing these gaps, our method provides a practical solution for integrated analysis, enhancing data utility and advancing the understanding of population health. Materials and Methods: We begin by demonstrating structured and sporadic missing mechanisms in the integrated analysis of EHR data. Following this, we introduce a novel imputation framework, Macomss, specifically designed to handle structurally and heterogeneously occurring missing data. We establish theoretical guarantees for Macomss, ensuring its robustness in preserving the integrity and reliability of integrated analyses. To assess its empirical performance, we conduct extensive simulation studies that replicate the complex missingness patterns observed in real-world EHR systems, complemented by validation using EHR datasets from the Duke University Health System (DUHS). Results: Simulation studies show that our approach consistently outperforms existing imputation methods. Using datasets from three hospitals within DUHS, Macomss achieves the lowest imputation errors for missing data in most cases and provides superior or comparable downstream prediction performance compared to benchmark methods. Conclusions: We provide a theoretically guaranteed and practically meaningful method for imputing structured and sporadic missing data, enabling accurate and reliable integrated analysis across multiple EHR datasets. The proposed approach holds significant potential for advancing research in population health.

Revisit CP Tensor Decomposition: Statistical Optimality and Fast Convergence

Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition is a fundamental technique for analyzing high-dimensional tensor data. While the Alternating Least Squares (ALS) algorithm is widely used for computing CP decomposition due to its simplicity and empirical success, its theoretical foundation, particularly regarding statistical optimality and convergence behavior, remain underdeveloped, especially in noisy, non-orthogonal, and higher-rank settings. In this work, we revisit CP tensor decomposition from a statistical perspective and provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of ALS under a signal-plus-noise model. We establish non-asymptotic, minimax-optimal error bounds for tensors of general order, dimensions, and rank, assuming suitable initialization. To enable such initialization, we propose Tucker-based Approximation with Simultaneous Diagonalization (TASD), a robust method that improves stability and accuracy in noisy regimes. Combined with ALS, TASD yields a statistically consistent estimator. We further analyze the convergence dynamics of ALS, identifying a two-phase pattern-initial quadratic convergence followed by linear refinement. We further show that in the rank-one setting, ALS with an appropriately chosen initialization attains optimal error within just one or two iterations.

Federated PCA and Estimation for Spiked Covariance Matrices: Optimal Rates and Efficient Algorithm

Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant recent attention in machine learning for its enhanced privacy and data security, making it indispensable in fields such as healthcare, finance, and personalized services. This paper investigates federated PCA and estimation for spiked covariance matrices under distributed differential privacy constraints. We establish minimax rates of convergence, with a key finding that the central server's optimal rate is the harmonic mean of the local clients' minimax rates. This guarantees consistent estimation at the central server as long as at least one local client provides consistent results. Notably, consistency is maintained even if some local estimators are inconsistent, provided there are enough clients. These findings highlight the robustness and scalability of FL for reliable statistical inference under privacy constraints. To establish minimax lower bounds, we derive a matrix version of van Trees' inequality, which is of independent interest. Furthermore, we propose an efficient algorithm that preserves differential privacy while achieving near-optimal rates at the central server, up to a logarithmic factor. We address significant technical challenges in analyzing this algorithm, which involves a three-layer spectral decomposition. Numerical performance of the proposed algorithm is investigated using both simulated and real data.

Tensor Decomposition with Unaligned Observations

This paper presents a canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition that addresses unaligned observations. The mode with unaligned observations is represented using functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We introduce a versatile loss function that effectively accounts for various types of data, including binary, integer-valued, and positive-valued types. Additionally, we propose an optimization algorithm for computing tensor decompositions with unaligned observations, along with a stochastic gradient method to enhance computational efficiency. A sketching algorithm is also introduced to further improve efficiency when using the $\ell_2$ loss function. To demonstrate the efficacy of our methods, we provide illustrative examples using both synthetic data and an early childhood human microbiome dataset.

Tensor Decomposition Meets RKHS: Efficient Algorithms for Smooth and Misaligned Data

The canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition decomposes a multidimensional data array into a sum of outer products of finite-dimensional vectors. Instead, we can replace some or all of the vectors with continuous functions (infinite-dimensional vectors) from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We refer to tensors with some infinite-dimensional modes as quasitensors, and the approach of decomposing a tensor with some continuous RKHS modes is referred to as CP-HiFi (hybrid infinite and finite dimensional) tensor decomposition. An advantage of CP-HiFi is that it can enforce smoothness in the infinite dimensional modes. Further, CP-HiFi does not require the observed data to lie on a regular and finite rectangular grid and naturally incorporates misaligned data. We detail the methodology and illustrate it on a synthetic example.

Fast and Reliable Generation of EHR Time Series via Diffusion Models

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are rich sources of patient-level data, including laboratory tests, medications, and diagnoses, offering valuable resources for medical data analysis. However, concerns about privacy often restrict access to EHRs, hindering downstream analysis. Researchers have explored various methods for generating privacy-preserving EHR data. In this study, we introduce a new method for generating diverse and realistic synthetic EHR time series data using Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). We conducted experiments on six datasets, comparing our proposed method with seven existing methods. Our results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms all existing methods in terms of data utility while requiring less training effort. Our approach also enhances downstream medical data analysis by providing diverse and realistic synthetic EHR data.

Mode-wise Principal Subspace Pursuit and Matrix Spiked Covariance Model

This paper introduces a novel framework called Mode-wise Principal Subspace Pursuit (MOP-UP) to extract hidden variations in both the row and column dimensions for matrix data. To enhance the understanding of the framework, we introduce a class of matrix-variate spiked covariance models that serve as inspiration for the development of the MOP-UP algorithm. The MOP-UP algorithm consists of two steps: Average Subspace Capture (ASC) and Alternating Projection (AP). These steps are specifically designed to capture the row-wise and column-wise dimension-reduced subspaces which contain the most informative features of the data. ASC utilizes a novel average projection operator as initialization and achieves exact recovery in the noiseless setting. We analyze the convergence and non-asymptotic error bounds of MOP-UP, introducing a blockwise matrix eigenvalue perturbation bound that proves the desired bound, where classic perturbation bounds fail. The effectiveness and practical merits of the proposed framework are demonstrated through experiments on both simulated and real datasets. Lastly, we discuss generalizations of our approach to higher-order data.