Visualization for Trust in Machine Learning Revisited: The State of the Field in 2023

Visualization for explainable and trustworthy machine learning remains one of the most important and heavily researched fields within information visualization and visual analytics with various application domains, such as medicine, finance, and bioinformatics. After our 2020 state-of-the-art report comprising 200 techniques, we have persistently collected peer-reviewed articles describing visualization techniques, categorized them based on the previously established categorization schema consisting of 119 categories, and provided the resulting collection of 542 techniques in an online survey browser. In this survey article, we present the updated findings of new analyses of this dataset as of fall 2023 and discuss trends, insights, and eight open challenges for using visualizations in machine learning. Our results corroborate the rapidly growing trend of visualization techniques for increasing trust in machine learning models in the past three years, with visualization found to help improve popular model explainability methods and check new deep learning architectures, for instance.

DimVis: Interpreting Visual Clusters in Dimensionality Reduction With Explainable Boosting Machine

Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques such as t-SNE and UMAP are popular for transforming complex datasets into simpler visual representations. However, while effective in uncovering general dataset patterns, these methods may introduce artifacts and suffer from interpretability issues. This paper presents DimVis, a visualization tool that employs supervised Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) models (trained on user-selected data of interest) as an interpretation assistant for DR projections. Our tool facilitates high-dimensional data analysis by providing an interpretation of feature relevance in visual clusters through interactive exploration of UMAP projections. Specifically, DimVis uses a contrastive EBM model that is trained in real time to differentiate between the data inside and outside a cluster of interest. Taking advantage of the inherent explainable nature of the EBM, we then use this model to interpret the cluster itself via single and pairwise feature comparisons in a ranking based on the EBM model's feature importance. The applicability and effectiveness of DimVis are demonstrated through two use cases involving real-world datasets, and we also discuss the limitations and potential directions for future research.

Evaluating the Utility of Conformal Prediction Sets for AI-Advised Image Labeling

As deep neural networks are more commonly deployed in high-stakes domains, their lack of interpretability makes uncertainty quantification challenging. We investigate the effects of presenting conformal prediction sets$\unicode{x2013}$a method for generating valid confidence sets in distribution-free uncertainty quantification$\unicode{x2013}$to express uncertainty in AI-advised decision-making. Through a large online experiment, we compare the utility of conformal prediction sets to displays of Top-$1$ and Top-$k$ predictions for AI-advised image labeling. We find that the utility of prediction sets for accuracy varies with the difficulty of the task: while they result in accuracy on par with or less than Top-$1$ and Top-$k$ displays for easy images, prediction sets excel at assisting humans in labeling out-of-distribution (OOD) images especially when the set size is small. Our results empirically pinpoint the practical challenges of conformal prediction sets and provide implications on how to incorporate them for real-world decision-making.

Pre-registration for Predictive Modeling

Amid rising concerns of reproducibility and generalizability in predictive modeling, we explore the possibility and potential benefits of introducing pre-registration to the field. Despite notable advancements in predictive modeling, spanning core machine learning tasks to various scientific applications, challenges such as overlooked contextual factors, data-dependent decision-making, and unintentional re-use of test data have raised questions about the integrity of results. To address these issues, we propose adapting pre-registration practices from explanatory modeling to predictive modeling. We discuss current best practices in predictive modeling and their limitations, introduce a lightweight pre-registration template, and present a qualitative study with machine learning researchers to gain insight into the effectiveness of pre-registration in preventing biased estimates and promoting more reliable research outcomes. We conclude by exploring the scope of problems that pre-registration can address in predictive modeling and acknowledging its limitations within this context.

DeforestVis: Behavior Analysis of Machine Learning Models with Surrogate Decision Stumps

As the complexity of machine learning (ML) models increases and the applications in different (and critical) domains grow, there is a strong demand for more interpretable and trustworthy ML. One straightforward and model-agnostic way to interpret complex ML models is to train surrogate models, such as rule sets and decision trees, that sufficiently approximate the original ones while being simpler and easier-to-explain. Yet, rule sets can become very lengthy, with many if-else statements, and decision tree depth grows rapidly when accurately emulating complex ML models. In such cases, both approaches can fail to meet their core goal, providing users with model interpretability. We tackle this by proposing DeforestVis, a visual analytics tool that offers user-friendly summarization of the behavior of complex ML models by providing surrogate decision stumps (one-level decision trees) generated with the adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) technique. Our solution helps users to explore the complexity vs fidelity trade-off by incrementally generating more stumps, creating attribute-based explanations with weighted stumps to justify decision making, and analyzing the impact of rule overriding on training instance allocation between one or more stumps. An independent test set allows users to monitor the effectiveness of manual rule changes and form hypotheses based on case-by-case investigations. We show the applicability and usefulness of DeforestVis with two use cases and expert interviews with data analysts and model developers.

MetaStackVis: Visually-Assisted Performance Evaluation of Metamodels

Stacking (or stacked generalization) is an ensemble learning method with one main distinctiveness from the rest: even though several base models are trained on the original data set, their predictions are further used as input data for one or more metamodels arranged in at least one extra layer. Composing a stack of models can produce high-performance outcomes, but it usually involves a trial-and-error process. Therefore, our previously developed visual analytics system, StackGenVis, was mainly designed to assist users in choosing a set of top-performing and diverse models by measuring their predictive performance. However, it only employs a single logistic regression metamodel. In this paper, we investigate the impact of alternative metamodels on the performance of stacking ensembles using a novel visualization tool, called MetaStackVis. Our interactive tool helps users to visually explore different singular and pairs of metamodels according to their predictive probabilities and multiple validation metrics, as well as their ability to predict specific problematic data instances. MetaStackVis was evaluated with a usage scenario based on a medical data set and via expert interviews.

HardVis: Visual Analytics to Handle Instance Hardness Using Undersampling and Oversampling Techniques

Despite the tremendous advances in machine learning (ML), training with imbalanced data still poses challenges in many real-world applications. Among a series of diverse techniques to solve this problem, sampling algorithms are regarded as an efficient solution. However, the problem is more fundamental, with many works emphasizing the importance of instance hardness. This issue refers to the significance of managing unsafe or potentially noisy instances that are more likely to be misclassified and serve as the root cause of poor classification performance. This paper introduces HardVis, a visual analytics system designed to handle instance hardness mainly in imbalanced classification scenarios. Our proposed system assists users in visually comparing different distributions of data types, selecting types of instances based on local characteristics that will later be affected by the active sampling method, and validating which suggestions from undersampling or oversampling techniques are beneficial for the ML model. Additionally, rather than uniformly undersampling/oversampling a specific class, we allow users to find and sample easy and difficult to classify training instances from all classes. Users can explore subsets of data from different perspectives to decide all those parameters, while HardVis keeps track of their steps and evaluates the model's predictive performance in a test set separately. The end result is a well-balanced data set that boosts the predictive power of the ML model. The efficacy and effectiveness of HardVis are demonstrated with a hypothetical usage scenario and a use case. Finally, we also look at how useful our system is based on feedback we received from ML experts.

VisRuler: Visual Analytics for Extracting Decision Rules from Bagged and Boosted Decision Trees

Bagging and boosting are two popular ensemble methods in machine learning (ML) that produce many individual decision trees. Due to the inherent ensemble characteristic of these methods, they typically outperform single decision trees or other ML models in predictive performance. However, numerous decision paths are generated for each decision tree, increasing the overall complexity of the model and hindering its use in domains that require trustworthy and explainable decisions, such as finance, social care, and health care. Thus, the interpretability of bagging and boosting algorithms, such as random forests and adaptive boosting, reduces as the number of decisions rises. In this paper, we propose a visual analytics tool that aims to assist users in extracting decisions from such ML models via a thorough visual inspection workflow that includes selecting a set of robust and diverse models (originating from different ensemble learning algorithms), choosing important features according to their global contribution, and deciding which decisions are essential for global explanation (or locally, for specific cases). The outcome is a final decision based on the class agreement of several models and the explored manual decisions exported by users. Finally, we evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of VisRuler via a use case, a usage scenario, and a user study.

FeatureEnVi: Visual Analytics for Feature Engineering Using Stepwise Selection and Semi-Automatic Extraction Approaches

The machine learning (ML) life cycle involves a series of iterative steps, from the effective gathering and preparation of the data, including complex feature engineering processes, to the presentation and improvement of results, with various algorithms to choose from in every step. Feature engineering in particular can be very beneficial for ML, leading to numerous improvements such as boosting the predictive results, decreasing computational times, reducing excessive noise, and increasing the transparency behind the decisions taken during the training. Despite that, while several visual analytics tools exist to monitor and control the different stages of the ML life cycle (especially those related to data and algorithms), feature engineering support remains inadequate. In this paper, we present FeatureEnVi, a visual analytics system specifically designed to assist with the feature engineering process. Our proposed system helps users to choose the most important feature, to transform the original features into powerful alternatives, and to experiment with different feature generation combinations. Additionally, data space slicing allows users to explore the impact of features on both local and global scales. FeatureEnVi utilizes multiple automatic feature selection techniques; furthermore, it visually guides users with statistical evidence about the influence of each feature (or subsets of features). The final outcome is the extraction of heavily engineered features, evaluated by multiple validation metrics. The usefulness and applicability of FeatureEnVi are demonstrated with two use cases, using a popular red wine quality data set and publicly available data related to vehicle recognition from their silhouettes. We also report feedback from interviews with ML experts and a visualization researcher who assessed the effectiveness of our system.

VisEvol: Visual Analytics to Support Hyperparameter Search through Evolutionary Optimization

During the training phase of machine learning (ML) models, it is usually necessary to configure several hyperparameters. This process is computationally intensive and requires an extensive search to infer the best hyperparameter set for the given problem. The challenge is exacerbated by the fact that most ML models are complex internally, and training involves trial-and-error processes that could remarkably affect the predictive result. Moreover, each hyperparameter of an ML algorithm is potentially intertwined with the others, and changing it might result in unforeseeable impacts on the remaining hyperparameters. Evolutionary optimization is a promising method to try and address those issues. According to this method, performant models are stored, while the remainder are improved through crossover and mutation processes inspired by genetic algorithms. We present VisEvol, a visual analytics tool that supports interactive exploration of hyperparameters and intervention in this evolutionary procedure. In summary, our proposed tool helps the user to generate new models through evolution and eventually explore powerful hyperparameter combinations in diverse regions of the extensive hyperparameter space. The outcome is a voting ensemble (with equal rights) that boosts the final predictive performance. The utility and applicability of VisEvol are demonstrated with two use cases and interviews with ML experts who evaluated the effectiveness of the tool.