Towards a universal neural network encoder for time series

We study the use of a time series encoder to learn representations that are useful on data set types with which it has not been trained on. The encoder is formed of a convolutional neural network whose temporal output is summarized by a convolutional attention mechanism. This way, we obtain a compact, fixed-length representation from longer, variable-length time series. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a well-known time series classification benchmark, considering full adaptation, partial adaptation, and no adaptation of the encoder to the new data type. Results show that such strategies are competitive with the state-of-the-art, often outperforming conceptually-matching approaches. Besides accuracy scores, the facility of adaptation and the efficiency of pre-trained encoders make them an appealing option for the processing of scarcely- or non-labeled time series.

Personalizing Session-based Recommendations with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks

Session-based recommendations are highly relevant in many modern on-line services (e.g. e-commerce, video streaming) and recommendation settings. Recently, Recurrent Neural Networks have been shown to perform very well in session-based settings. While in many session-based recommendation domains user identifiers are hard to come by, there are also domains in which user profiles are readily available. We propose a seamless way to personalize RNN models with cross-session information transfer and devise a Hierarchical RNN model that relays end evolves latent hidden states of the RNNs across user sessions. Results on two industry datasets show large improvements over the session-only RNNs.

Getting deep recommenders fit: Bloom embeddings for sparse binary input/output networks

Recommendation algorithms that incorporate techniques from deep learning are becoming increasingly popular. Due to the structure of the data coming from recommendation domains (i.e., one-hot-encoded vectors of item preferences), these algorithms tend to have large input and output dimensionalities that dominate their overall size. This makes them difficult to train, due to the limited memory of graphical processing units, and difficult to deploy on mobile devices with limited hardware. To address these difficulties, we propose Bloom embeddings, a compression technique that can be applied to the input and output of neural network models dealing with sparse high-dimensional binary-coded instances. Bloom embeddings are computationally efficient, and do not seriously compromise the accuracy of the model up to 1/5 compression ratios. In some cases, they even improve over the original accuracy, with relative increases up to 12%. We evaluate Bloom embeddings on 7 data sets and compare it against 4 alternative methods, obtaining favorable results. We also discuss a number of further advantages of Bloom embeddings, such as 'on-the-fly' constant-time operation, zero or marginal space requirements, training time speedups, or the fact that they do not require any change to the core model architecture or training configuration.

Hot or not? Forecasting cellular network hot spots using sector performance indicators

To manage and maintain large-scale cellular networks, operators need to know which sectors underperform at any given time. For this purpose, they use the so-called hot spot score, which is the result of a combination of multiple network measurements and reflects the instantaneous overall performance of individual sectors. While operators have a good understanding of the current performance of a network and its overall trend, forecasting the performance of each sector over time is a challenging task, as it is affected by both regular and non-regular events, triggered by human behavior and hardware failures. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal patterns of the hot spot score and uncover its regularities. Based on our observations, we then explore the possibility to use recent measurements' history to predict future hot spots. To this end, we consider tree-based machine learning models, and study their performance as a function of time, amount of past data, and prediction horizon. Our results indicate that, compared to the best baseline, tree-based models can deliver up to 14% better forecasts for regular hot spots and 153% better forecasts for non-regular hot spots. The latter brings strong evidence that, for moderate horizons, forecasts can be made even for sectors exhibiting isolated, non-regular behavior. Overall, our work provides insight into the dynamics of cellular sectors and their predictability. It also paves the way for more proactive network operations with greater forecasting horizons.

On Context-Dependent Clustering of Bandits

We investigate a novel cluster-of-bandit algorithm CAB for collaborative recommendation tasks that implements the underlying feedback sharing mechanism by estimating the neighborhood of users in a context-dependent manner. CAB makes sharp departures from the state of the art by incorporating collaborative effects into inference as well as learning processes in a manner that seamlessly interleaving explore-exploit tradeoffs and collaborative steps. We prove regret bounds under various assumptions on the data, which exhibit a crisp dependence on the expected number of clusters over the users, a natural measure of the statistical difficulty of the learning task. Experiments on production and real-world datasets show that CAB offers significantly increased prediction performance against a representative pool of state-of-the-art methods.

A genetic algorithm to discover flexible motifs with support

Finding repeated patterns or motifs in a time series is an important unsupervised task that has still a number of open issues, starting by the definition of motif. In this paper, we revise the notion of motif support, characterizing it as the number of patterns or repetitions that define a motif. We then propose GENMOTIF, a genetic algorithm to discover motifs with support which, at the same time, is flexible enough to accommodate other motif specifications and task characteristics. GENMOTIF is an anytime algorithm that easily adapts to many situations: searching in a range of segment lengths, applying uniform scaling, dealing with multiple dimensions, using different similarity and grouping criteria, etc. GENMOTIF is also parameter-friendly: it has only two intuitive parameters which, if set within reasonable bounds, do not substantially affect its performance. We demonstrate the value of our approach in a number of synthetic and real-world settings, considering traffic volume measurements, accelerometer signals, and telephone call records.

Collaborative Filtering Bandits

Classical collaborative filtering, and content-based filtering methods try to learn a static recommendation model given training data. These approaches are far from ideal in highly dynamic recommendation domains such as news recommendation and computational advertisement, where the set of items and users is very fluid. In this work, we investigate an adaptive clustering technique for content recommendation based on exploration-exploitation strategies in contextual multi-armed bandit settings. Our algorithm takes into account the collaborative effects that arise due to the interaction of the users with the items, by dynamically grouping users based on the items under consideration and, at the same time, grouping items based on the similarity of the clusterings induced over the users. The resulting algorithm thus takes advantage of preference patterns in the data in a way akin to collaborative filtering methods. We provide an empirical analysis on medium-size real-world datasets, showing scalability and increased prediction performance (as measured by click-through rate) over state-of-the-art methods for clustering bandits. We also provide a regret analysis within a standard linear stochastic noise setting.

Graph Clustering Bandits for Recommendation

We investigate an efficient context-dependent clustering technique for recommender systems based on exploration-exploitation strategies through multi-armed bandits over multiple users. Our algorithm dynamically groups users based on their observed behavioral similarity during a sequence of logged activities. In doing so, the algorithm reacts to the currently served user by shaping clusters around him/her but, at the same time, it explores the generation of clusters over users which are not currently engaged. We motivate the effectiveness of this clustering policy, and provide an extensive empirical analysis on real-world datasets, showing scalability and improved prediction performance over state-of-the-art methods for sequential clustering of users in multi-armed bandit scenarios.

Session-based Recommendations with Recurrent Neural Networks

We apply recurrent neural networks (RNN) on a new domain, namely recommender systems. Real-life recommender systems often face the problem of having to base recommendations only on short session-based data (e.g. a small sportsware website) instead of long user histories (as in the case of Netflix). In this situation the frequently praised matrix factorization approaches are not accurate. This problem is usually overcome in practice by resorting to item-to-item recommendations, i.e. recommending similar items. We argue that by modeling the whole session, more accurate recommendations can be provided. We therefore propose an RNN-based approach for session-based recommendations. Our approach also considers practical aspects of the task and introduces several modifications to classic RNNs such as a ranking loss function that make it more viable for this specific problem. Experimental results on two data-sets show marked improvements over widely used approaches.