Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt to model uncertainty by constructing a calibrated candidate set in place of a single prediction, with guarantees that the set contains the correct answer with high probability. In order to obey this coverage property, however, conformal sets can become inundated with noisy candidates -- which can render them unhelpful in practice. This is particularly relevant to practical applications where there is a limited budget, and the cost (monetary or otherwise) associated with false positives is non-negligible. We propose to trade coverage for a notion of precision by enforcing that the presence of incorrect candidates in the predicted conformal sets (i.e., the total number of false positives) is bounded according to a user-specified tolerance. Subject to this constraint, our algorithm then optimizes for a generalized notion of set coverage (i.e., the true positive rate) that allows for any number of true answers for a given query (including zero). We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across a number of classification tasks in natural language processing, computer vision, and computational chemistry.

Consistent Accelerated Inference via Confident Adaptive Transformers

We develop a novel approach for confidently accelerating inference in the large and expensive multilayer Transformers that are now ubiquitous in natural language processing (NLP). Amortized or approximate computational methods increase efficiency, but can come with unpredictable performance costs. In this work, we present CATs -- Confident Adaptive Transformers -- in which we simultaneously increase computational efficiency, while guaranteeing a specifiable degree of consistency with the original model with high confidence. Our method trains additional prediction heads on top of intermediate layers, and dynamically decides when to stop allocating computational effort to each input using a meta consistency classifier. To calibrate our early prediction stopping rule, we formulate a unique extension of conformal prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on four classification and regression tasks.

Get Your Vitamin C! Robust Fact Verification with Contrastive Evidence

Typical fact verification models use retrieved written evidence to verify claims. Evidence sources, however, often change over time as more information is gathered and revised. In order to adapt, models must be sensitive to subtle differences in supporting evidence. We present VitaminC, a benchmark infused with challenging cases that require fact verification models to discern and adjust to slight factual changes. We collect over 100,000 Wikipedia revisions that modify an underlying fact, and leverage these revisions, together with additional synthetically constructed ones, to create a total of over 400,000 claim-evidence pairs. Unlike previous resources, the examples in VitaminC are contrastive, i.e., they contain evidence pairs that are nearly identical in language and content, with the exception that one supports a given claim while the other does not. We show that training using this design increases robustness -- improving accuracy by 10% on adversarial fact verification and 6% on adversarial natural language inference (NLI). Moreover, the structure of VitaminC leads us to define additional tasks for fact-checking resources: tagging relevant words in the evidence for verifying the claim, identifying factual revisions, and providing automatic edits via factually consistent text generation.

Few-shot Conformal Prediction with Auxiliary Tasks

We develop a novel approach to conformal prediction when the target task has limited data available for training. Conformal prediction identifies a small set of promising output candidates in place of a single prediction, with guarantees that the set contains the correct answer with high probability. When training data is limited, however, the predicted set can easily become unusably large. In this work, we obtain substantially tighter prediction sets while maintaining desirable marginal guarantees by casting conformal prediction as a meta-learning paradigm over exchangeable collections of auxiliary tasks. Our conformalization algorithm is simple, fast, and agnostic to the choice of underlying model, learning algorithm, or dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across a number of few-shot classification and regression tasks in natural language processing, computer vision, and computational chemistry for drug discovery.

Making Pre-trained Language Models Better Few-shot Learners

The recent GPT-3 model (Brown et al., 2020) achieves remarkable few-shot performance solely by leveraging a natural-language prompt and a few task demonstrations as input context. Inspired by their findings, we study few-shot learning in a more practical scenario, where we use smaller language models for which fine-tuning is computationally efficient. We present LM-BFF--better few-shot fine-tuning of language models--a suite of simple and complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models on a small number of annotated examples. Our approach includes (1) prompt-based fine-tuning together with a novel pipeline for automating prompt generation; and (2) a refined strategy for dynamically and selectively incorporating demonstrations into each context. Finally, we present a systematic evaluation for analyzing few-shot performance on a range of NLP tasks, including classification and regression. Our experiments demonstrate that our methods combine to dramatically outperform standard fine-tuning procedures in this low resource setting, achieving up to 30% absolute improvement, and 11% on average across all tasks. Our approach makes minimal assumptions on task resources and domain expertise, and hence constitutes a strong task-agnostic method for few-shot learning.

CapWAP: Captioning with a Purpose

The traditional image captioning task uses generic reference captions to provide textual information about images. Different user populations, however, will care about different visual aspects of images. In this paper, we propose a new task, Captioning with a Purpose (CapWAP). Our goal is to develop systems that can be tailored to be useful for the information needs of an intended population, rather than merely provide generic information about an image. In this task, we use question-answer (QA) pairs---a natural expression of information need---from users, instead of reference captions, for both training and post-inference evaluation. We show that it is possible to use reinforcement learning to directly optimize for the intended information need, by rewarding outputs that allow a question answering model to provide correct answers to sampled user questions. We convert several visual question answering datasets into CapWAP datasets, and demonstrate that under a variety of scenarios our purposeful captioning system learns to anticipate and fulfill specific information needs better than its generic counterparts, as measured by QA performance on user questions from unseen images, when using the caption alone as context.

Relaxed Conformal Prediction Cascades for Efficient Inference Over Many Labels

Providing a small set of promising candidates in place of a single prediction is well-suited for many open-ended classification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a technique for creating classifiers that produce a valid set of predictions that contains the true answer with arbitrarily high probability. In practice, however, standard CP can suffer from both low predictive and computational efficiency during inference---i.e., the predicted set is both unusably large, and costly to obtain. This is particularly pervasive in the considered setting, where the correct answer is not unique and the number of total possible answers is high. In this work, we develop two simple and complementary techniques for improving both types of efficiencies. First, we relax CP validity to arbitrary criterions of success---allowing our framework to make more efficient predictions while remaining "equivalently correct." Second, we amortize cost by conformalizing prediction cascades, in which we aggressively prune implausible labels early on by using progressively stronger classifiers---while still guaranteeing marginal coverage. We demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our approach for multiple applications in natural language processing and computational chemistry for drug discovery.

MRQA 2019 Shared Task: Evaluating Generalization in Reading Comprehension

We present the results of the Machine Reading for Question Answering (MRQA) 2019 shared task on evaluating the generalization capabilities of reading comprehension systems. In this task, we adapted and unified 18 distinct question answering datasets into the same format. Among them, six datasets were made available for training, six datasets were made available for development, and the final six were hidden for final evaluation. Ten teams submitted systems, which explored various ideas including data sampling, multi-task learning, adversarial training and ensembling. The best system achieved an average F1 score of 72.5 on the 12 held-out datasets, 10.7 absolute points higher than our initial baseline based on BERT.

Working Hard or Hardly Working: Challenges of Integrating Typology into Neural Dependency Parsers

This paper explores the task of leveraging typology in the context of cross-lingual dependency parsing. While this linguistic information has shown great promise in pre-neural parsing, results for neural architectures have been mixed. The aim of our investigation is to better understand this state-of-the-art. Our main findings are as follows: 1) The benefit of typological information is derived from coarsely grouping languages into syntactically-homogeneous clusters rather than from learning to leverage variations along individual typological dimensions in a compositional manner; 2) Typology consistent with the actual corpus statistics yields better transfer performance; 3) Typological similarity is only a rough proxy of cross-lingual transferability with respect to parsing.

ParlAI: A Dialog Research Software Platform

We introduce ParlAI (pronounced "par-lay"), an open-source software platform for dialog research implemented in Python, available at http://parl.ai. Its goal is to provide a unified framework for sharing, training and testing of dialog models, integration of Amazon Mechanical Turk for data collection, human evaluation, and online/reinforcement learning; and a repository of machine learning models for comparing with others' models, and improving upon existing architectures. Over 20 tasks are supported in the first release, including popular datasets such as SQuAD, bAbI tasks, MCTest, WikiQA, QACNN, QADailyMail, CBT, bAbI Dialog, Ubuntu, OpenSubtitles and VQA. Several models are integrated, including neural models such as memory networks, seq2seq and attentive LSTMs.