tsGT: Stochastic Time Series Modeling With Transformer

Time series methods are of fundamental importance in virtually any field of science that deals with temporally structured data. Recently, there has been a surge of deterministic transformer models with time series-specific architectural biases. In this paper, we go in a different direction by introducing tsGT, a stochastic time series model built on a general-purpose transformer architecture. We focus on using a well-known and theoretically justified rolling window backtesting and evaluation protocol. We show that tsGT outperforms the state-of-the-art models on MAD and RMSE, and surpasses its stochastic peers on QL and CRPS, on four commonly used datasets. We complement these results with a detailed analysis of tsGT's ability to model the data distribution and predict marginal quantile values.

GUIDE: Guidance-based Incremental Learning with Diffusion Models

We introduce GUIDE, a novel continual learning approach that directs diffusion models to rehearse samples at risk of being forgotten. Existing generative strategies combat catastrophic forgetting by randomly sampling rehearsal examples from a generative model. Such an approach contradicts buffer-based approaches where sampling strategy plays an important role. We propose to bridge this gap by integrating diffusion models with classifier guidance techniques to produce rehearsal examples specifically targeting information forgotten by a continuously trained model. This approach enables the generation of samples from preceding task distributions, which are more likely to be misclassified in the context of recently encountered classes. Our experimental results show that GUIDE significantly reduces catastrophic forgetting, outperforming conventional random sampling approaches and surpassing recent state-of-the-art methods in continual learning with generative replay.

Fine-tuning Reinforcement Learning Models is Secretly a Forgetting Mitigation Problem

Fine-tuning is a widespread technique that allows practitioners to transfer pre-trained capabilities, as recently showcased by the successful applications of foundation models. However, fine-tuning reinforcement learning (RL) models remains a challenge. This work conceptualizes one specific cause of poor transfer, accentuated in the RL setting by the interplay between actions and observations: forgetting of pre-trained capabilities. Namely, a model deteriorates on the state subspace of the downstream task not visited in the initial phase of fine-tuning, on which the model behaved well due to pre-training. This way, we lose the anticipated transfer benefits. We identify conditions when this problem occurs, showing that it is common and, in many cases, catastrophic. Through a detailed empirical analysis of the challenging NetHack and Montezuma's Revenge environments, we show that standard knowledge retention techniques mitigate the problem and thus allow us to take full advantage of the pre-trained capabilities. In particular, in NetHack, we achieve a new state-of-the-art for neural models, improving the previous best score from $5$K to over $10$K points in the Human Monk scenario.

Structured Packing in LLM Training Improves Long Context Utilization

Recent advances in long-context Large Language Models (LCLMs) have generated significant interest, especially in applications such as querying scientific research papers. However, their potential is often limited by inadequate context utilization. We identify the absence of long-range semantic dependencies in typical training data as a primary hindrance. To address this, we delve into the benefits of frequently incorporating related documents into training inputs. Using the inherent directory structure of code data as a source of training examples, we demonstrate improvements in perplexity, even for tasks unrelated to coding. Building on these findings, but with a broader focus, we introduce Structured Packing for Long Context (SPLiCe). SPLiCe is an innovative method for creating training examples by using a retrieval method to collate the most mutually relevant documents into a single training context. Our results indicate that \method{} enhances model performance and can be used to train large models to utilize long contexts better. We validate our results by training a large $3$B model, showing both perplexity improvements and better long-context performance on downstream tasks.

Magnushammer: A Transformer-based Approach to Premise Selection

Premise selection is a fundamental problem of automated theorem proving. Previous works often use intricate symbolic methods, rely on domain knowledge, and require significant engineering effort to solve this task. In this work, we show that Magnushammer, a neural transformer-based approach, can outperform traditional symbolic systems by a large margin. Tested on the PISA benchmark, Magnushammer achieves $59.5\%$ proof rate compared to a $38.3\%$ proof rate of Sledgehammer, the most mature and popular symbolic-based solver. Furthermore, by combining Magnushammer with a neural formal prover based on a language model, we significantly improve the previous state-of-the-art proof rate from $57.0\%$ to $71.0\%$.

Trust Your $\nabla$: Gradient-based Intervention Targeting for Causal Discovery

Inferring causal structure from data is a challenging task of fundamental importance in science. Observational data are often insufficient to identify a system's causal structure uniquely. While conducting interventions (i.e., experiments) can improve the identifiability, such samples are usually challenging and expensive to obtain. Hence, experimental design approaches for causal discovery aim to minimize the number of interventions by estimating the most informative intervention target. In this work, we propose a novel Gradient-based Intervention Targeting method, abbreviated GIT, that 'trusts' the gradient estimator of a gradient-based causal discovery framework to provide signals for the intervention acquisition function. We provide extensive experiments in simulated and real-world datasets and demonstrate that GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in the low-data regime.

Disentangling Transfer in Continual Reinforcement Learning

The ability of continual learning systems to transfer knowledge from previously seen tasks in order to maximize performance on new tasks is a significant challenge for the field, limiting the applicability of continual learning solutions to realistic scenarios. Consequently, this study aims to broaden our understanding of transfer and its driving forces in the specific case of continual reinforcement learning. We adopt SAC as the underlying RL algorithm and Continual World as a suite of continuous control tasks. We systematically study how different components of SAC (the actor and the critic, exploration, and data) affect transfer efficacy, and we provide recommendations regarding various modeling options. The best set of choices, dubbed ClonEx-SAC, is evaluated on the recent Continual World benchmark. ClonEx-SAC achieves 87% final success rate compared to 80% of PackNet, the best method in the benchmark. Moreover, the transfer grows from 0.18 to 0.54 according to the metric provided by Continual World.

Fast and Precise: Adjusting Planning Horizon with Adaptive Subgoal Search

Complex reasoning problems contain states that vary in the computational cost required to determine a good action plan. Taking advantage of this property, we propose Adaptive Subgoal Search (AdaSubS), a search method that adaptively adjusts the planning horizon. To this end, AdaSubS generates diverse sets of subgoals at different distances. A verification mechanism is employed to filter out unreachable subgoals swiftly and thus allowing to focus on feasible further subgoals. In this way, AdaSubS benefits from the efficiency of planning with longer subgoals and the fine control with the shorter ones. We show that AdaSubS significantly surpasses hierarchical planning algorithms on three complex reasoning tasks: Sokoban, the Rubik's Cube, and inequality proving benchmark INT, setting new state-of-the-art on INT.

Continuous Control With Ensemble Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients

The growth of deep reinforcement learning (RL) has brought multiple exciting tools and methods to the field. This rapid expansion makes it important to understand the interplay between individual elements of the RL toolbox. We approach this task from an empirical perspective by conducting a study in the continuous control setting. We present multiple insights of fundamental nature, including: an average of multiple actors trained from the same data boosts performance; the existing methods are unstable across training runs, epochs of training, and evaluation runs; a commonly used additive action noise is not required for effective training; a strategy based on posterior sampling explores better than the approximated UCB combined with the weighted Bellman backup; the weighted Bellman backup alone cannot replace the clipped double Q-Learning; the critics' initialization plays the major role in ensemble-based actor-critic exploration. As a conclusion, we show how existing tools can be brought together in a novel way, giving rise to the Ensemble Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients (ED2) method, to yield state-of-the-art results on continuous control tasks from OpenAI Gym MuJoCo. From the practical side, ED2 is conceptually straightforward, easy to code, and does not require knowledge outside of the existing RL toolbox.

Catalytic Role Of Noise And Necessity Of Inductive Biases In The Emergence Of Compositional Communication

Communication is compositional if complex signals can be represented as a combination of simpler subparts. In this paper, we theoretically show that inductive biases on both the training framework and the data are needed to develop a compositional communication. Moreover, we prove that compositionality spontaneously arises in the signaling games, where agents communicate over a noisy channel. We experimentally confirm that a range of noise levels, which depends on the model and the data, indeed promotes compositionality. Finally, we provide a comprehensive study of this dependence and report results in terms of recently studied compositionality metrics: topographical similarity, conflict count, and context independence.