Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.

Mean-field Underdamped Langevin Dynamics and its Space-Time Discretization

We propose a new method called the N-particle underdamped Langevin algorithm for optimizing a special class of non-linear functionals defined over the space of probability measures. Examples of problems with this formulation include training neural networks in the mean-field regime, density estimation, and kernel Stein discrepancy minimization. Our algorithm is based on a novel space-time discretization of the mean-field underdamped Langevin dynamics, for which we provide a new, fast mixing guarantee. In addition, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges globally in total variation distance, bridging the theoretical gap between the dynamics and its practical implementation.

Towards Collective Superintelligence: Amplifying Group IQ using Conversational Swarms

Swarm Intelligence (SI) is a natural phenomenon that enables biological groups to amplify their combined intellect by forming real-time systems. Artificial Swarm Intelligence (or Swarm AI) is a technology that enables networked human groups to amplify their combined intelligence by forming similar systems. In the past, swarm-based methods were constrained to narrowly defined tasks like probabilistic forecasting and multiple-choice decision making. A new technology called Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) was developed in 2023 that amplifies the decision-making accuracy of networked human groups through natural conversational deliberations. The current study evaluated the ability of real-time groups using a CSI platform to take a common IQ test known as Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (RAPM). First, a baseline group of participants took the Raven's IQ test by traditional survey. This group averaged 45.6% correct. Then, groups of approximately 35 individuals answered IQ test questions together using a CSI platform called Thinkscape. These groups averaged 80.5% correct. This places the CSI groups in the 97th percentile of IQ test-takers and corresponds to an effective IQ increase of 28 points (p<0.001). This is an encouraging result and suggests that CSI is a powerful method for enabling conversational collective intelligence in large, networked groups. In addition, because CSI is scalable across groups of potentially any size, this technology may provide a viable pathway to building a Collective Superintelligence.

Equitable Persistent Coverage of Non-Convex Environments with Graph-Based Planning

In this paper we tackle the problem of persistently covering a complex non-convex environment with a team of robots. We consider scenarios where the coverage quality of the environment deteriorates with time, requiring to constantly revisit every point. As a first step, our solution finds a partition of the environment where the amount of work for each robot, weighted by the importance of each point, is equal. This is achieved using a power diagram and finding an equitable partition through a provably correct distributed control law on the power weights. Compared to other existing partitioning methods, our solution considers a continuous environment formulation with non-convex obstacles. In the second step, each robot computes a graph that gathers sweep-like paths and covers its entire partition. At each planning time, the coverage error at the graph vertices is assigned as weights of the corresponding edges. Then, our solution is capable of efficiently finding the optimal open coverage path through the graph with respect to the coverage error per distance traversed. Simulation and experimental results are presented to support our proposal.

Synthetic data enables faster annotation and robust segmentation for multi-object grasping in clutter

Object recognition and object pose estimation in robotic grasping continue to be significant challenges, since building a labelled dataset can be time consuming and financially costly in terms of data collection and annotation. In this work, we propose a synthetic data generation method that minimizes human intervention and makes downstream image segmentation algorithms more robust by combining a generated synthetic dataset with a smaller real-world dataset (hybrid dataset). Annotation experiments show that the proposed synthetic scene generation can diminish labelling time dramatically. RGB image segmentation is trained with hybrid dataset and combined with depth information to produce pixel-to-point correspondence of individual segmented objects. The object to grasp is then determined by the confidence score of the segmentation algorithm. Pick-and-place experiments demonstrate that segmentation trained on our hybrid dataset (98.9%, 70%) outperforms the real dataset and a publicly available dataset by (6.7%, 18.8%) and (2.8%, 10%) in terms of labelling and grasping success rate, respectively. Supplementary material is available at https://sites.google.com/view/synthetic-dataset-generation.

Learning-assisted Stochastic Capacity Expansion Planning: A Bayesian Optimization Approach

Solving large-scale capacity expansion problems (CEPs) is central to cost-effective decarbonization of regional-scale energy systems. To ensure the intended outcomes of CEPs, modeling uncertainty due to weather-dependent variable renewable energy (VRE) supply and energy demand becomes crucially important. However, the resulting stochastic optimization models are often less computationally tractable than their deterministic counterparts. Here, we propose a learning-assisted approximate solution method to tractably solve two-stage stochastic CEPs. Our method identifies low-cost planning decisions by constructing and solving a sequence of tractable temporally aggregated surrogate problems. We adopt a Bayesian optimization approach to searching the space of time series aggregation hyperparameters and compute approximate solutions that minimize costs on a validation set of supply-demand projections. Importantly, we evaluate solved planning outcomes on a held-out set of test projections. We apply our approach to generation and transmission expansion planning for a joint power-gas system spanning New England. We show that our approach yields an estimated cost savings of up to 3.8% in comparison to benchmark time series aggregation approaches.

ACCESS: Prompt Engineering for Automated Web Accessibility Violation Corrections

With the increasing need for inclusive and user-friendly technology, web accessibility is crucial to ensuring equal access to online content for individuals with disabilities, including visual, auditory, cognitive, or motor impairments. Despite the existence of accessibility guidelines and standards such as Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) and the Web Accessibility Initiative (W3C), over 90\% of websites still fail to meet the necessary accessibility requirements. For web users with disabilities, there exists a need for a tool to automatically fix web page accessibility errors. While research has demonstrated methods to find and target accessibility errors, no research has focused on effectively correcting such violations. This paper presents a novel approach to correcting accessibility violations on the web by modifying the document object model (DOM) in real time with foundation models. Leveraging accessibility error information, large language models (LLMs), and prompt engineering techniques, we achieved greater than a 51\% reduction in accessibility violation errors after corrections on our novel benchmark: ACCESS. Our work demonstrates a valuable approach toward the direction of inclusive web content, and provides directions for future research to explore advanced methods to automate web accessibility.

Smart Driver Monitoring Robotic System to Enhance Road Safety : A Comprehensive Review

The future of transportation is being shaped by technology, and one revolutionary step in improving road safety is the incorporation of robotic systems into driver monitoring infrastructure. This literature review explores the current landscape of driver monitoring systems, ranging from traditional physiological parameter monitoring to advanced technologies such as facial recognition to steering analysis. Exploring the challenges faced by existing systems, the review then investigates the integration of robots as intelligent entities within this framework. These robotic systems, equipped with artificial intelligence and sophisticated sensors, not only monitor but actively engage with the driver, addressing cognitive and emotional states in real-time. The synthesis of existing research reveals a dynamic interplay between human and machine, offering promising avenues for innovation in adaptive, personalized, and ethically responsible human-robot interactions for driver monitoring. This review establishes a groundwork for comprehending the intricacies and potential avenues within this dynamic field. It encourages further investigation and advancement at the intersection of human-robot interaction and automotive safety, introducing a novel direction. This involves various sections detailing technological enhancements that can be integrated to propose an innovative and improved driver monitoring system.

CPDM: Content-Preserving Diffusion Model for Underwater Image Enhancement

Underwater image enhancement (UIE) is challenging since image degradation in aquatic environments is complicated and changing over time. Existing mainstream methods rely on either physical-model or data-driven, suffering from performance bottlenecks due to changes in imaging conditions or training instability. In this article, we make the first attempt to adapt the diffusion model to the UIE task and propose a Content-Preserving Diffusion Model (CPDM) to address the above challenges. CPDM first leverages a diffusion model as its fundamental model for stable training and then designs a content-preserving framework to deal with changes in imaging conditions. Specifically, we construct a conditional input module by adopting both the raw image and the difference between the raw and noisy images as the input, which can enhance the model's adaptability by considering the changes involving the raw images in underwater environments. To preserve the essential content of the raw images, we construct a content compensation module for content-aware training by extracting low-level features from the raw images. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our CPDM, surpassing the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both subjective and objective metrics.

DeepGI: An Automated Approach for Gastrointestinal Tract Segmentation in MRI Scans

Gastrointestinal (GI) tract cancers pose a global health challenge, demanding precise radiotherapy planning for optimal treatment outcomes. This paper introduces a cutting-edge approach to automate the segmentation of GI tract regions in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Leveraging advanced deep learning architectures, the proposed model integrates Inception-V4 for initial classification, UNet++ with a VGG19 encoder for 2.5D data, and Edge UNet for grayscale data segmentation. Meticulous data preprocessing, including innovative 2.5D processing, is employed to enhance adaptability, robustness, and accuracy. This work addresses the manual and time-consuming segmentation process in current radiotherapy planning, presenting a unified model that captures intricate anatomical details. The integration of diverse architectures, each specializing in unique aspects of the segmentation task, signifies a novel and comprehensive solution. This model emerges as an efficient and accurate tool for clinicians, marking a significant advancement in the field of GI tract image segmentation for radiotherapy planning.