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"Time Series Analysis": models, code, and papers

Model-based clustering and segmentation of time series with changes in regime

Dec 25, 2013
Allou Samé, Faicel Chamroukhi, Gérard Govaert, Patrice Aknin

Mixture model-based clustering, usually applied to multidimensional data, has become a popular approach in many data analysis problems, both for its good statistical properties and for the simplicity of implementation of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Within the context of a railway application, this paper introduces a novel mixture model for dealing with time series that are subject to changes in regime. The proposed approach consists in modeling each cluster by a regression model in which the polynomial coefficients vary according to a discrete hidden process. In particular, this approach makes use of logistic functions to model the (smooth or abrupt) transitions between regimes. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method solved by an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The proposed approach can also be regarded as a clustering approach which operates by finding groups of time series having common changes in regime. In addition to providing a time series partition, it therefore provides a time series segmentation. The problem of selecting the optimal numbers of clusters and segments is solved by means of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The proposed approach is shown to be efficient using a variety of simulated time series and real-world time series of electrical power consumption from rail switching operations.

* Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, December 2011, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp 301-321 
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Riemannian-geometry-based modeling and clustering of network-wide non-stationary time series: The brain-network case

Jan 26, 2017
Konstantinos Slavakis, Shiva Salsabilian, David S. Wack, Sarah F. Muldoon, Henry E. Baidoo-Williams, Jean M. Vettel, Matthew Cieslak, Scott T. Grafton

This paper advocates Riemannian multi-manifold modeling in the context of network-wide non-stationary time-series analysis. Time-series data, collected sequentially over time and across a network, yield features which are viewed as points in or close to a union of multiple submanifolds of a Riemannian manifold, and distinguishing disparate time series amounts to clustering multiple Riemannian submanifolds. To support the claim that exploiting the latent Riemannian geometry behind many statistical features of time series is beneficial to learning from network data, this paper focuses on brain networks and puts forth two feature-generation schemes for network-wide dynamic time series. The first is motivated by Granger-causality arguments and uses an auto-regressive moving average model to map low-rank linear vector subspaces, spanned by column vectors of appropriately defined observability matrices, to points into the Grassmann manifold. The second utilizes (non-linear) dependencies among network nodes by introducing kernel-based partial correlations to generate points in the manifold of positive-definite matrices. Capitilizing on recently developed research on clustering Riemannian submanifolds, an algorithm is provided for distinguishing time series based on their geometrical properties, revealed within Riemannian feature spaces. Extensive numerical tests demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms classical and state-of-the-art techniques in clustering brain-network states/structures hidden beneath synthetic fMRI time series and brain-activity signals generated from real brain-network structural connectivity matrices.

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Time Series Deconfounder: Estimating Treatment Effects over Time in the Presence of Hidden Confounders

Feb 01, 2019
Ioana Bica, Ahmed M. Alaa, Mihaela van der Schaar

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders. This assumption is not testable in practice and, if it does not hold, leads to biased estimates. In this paper, we develop the Time Series Deconfounder, a method that leverages the assignment of multiple treatments over time to enable the estimation of treatment effects even in the presence of hidden confounders. The Time Series Deconfounder uses a novel recurrent neural network architecture with multitask output to build a factor model over time and infer substitute confounders that render the assigned treatments conditionally independent. Then it performs causal inference using the substitute confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for obtaining unbiased causal effects of time-varying exposures using the Time Series Deconfounder. Using simulations we show the effectiveness of our method in deconfounding the estimation of treatment responses in longitudinal data.

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Simulating Using Deep Learning The World Trade Forecasting of Export-Import Exchange Rate Convergence Factor During COVID-19

Jan 23, 2022
Effat Ara Easmin Lucky, Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnesa Keya, Md. Moshiur Rahaman, Umme Habiba Happy, Sharun Akter Khushbu, Md. Arid Hasan

By trade we usually mean the exchange of goods between states and countries. International trade acts as a barometer of the economic prosperity index and every country is overly dependent on resources, so international trade is essential. Trade is significant to the global health crisis, saving lives and livelihoods. By collecting the dataset called "Effects of COVID19 on trade" from the state website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa, we have developed a sustainable prediction process on the effects of COVID-19 in world trade using a deep learning model. In the research, we have given a 180-day trade forecast where the ups and downs of daily imports and exports have been accurately predicted in the Covid-19 period. In order to fulfill this prediction, we have taken data from 1st January 2015 to 30th May 2021 for all countries, all commodities, and all transport systems and have recovered what the world trade situation will be in the next 180 days during the Covid-19 period. The deep learning method has received equal attention from both investors and researchers in the field of in-depth observation. This study predicts global trade using the Long-Short Term Memory. Time series analysis can be useful to see how a given asset, security, or economy changes over time. Time series analysis plays an important role in past analysis to get different predictions of the future and it can be observed that some factors affect a particular variable from period to period. Through the time series it is possible to observe how various economic changes or trade effects change over time. By reviewing these changes, one can be aware of the steps to be taken in the future and a country can be more careful in terms of imports and exports accordingly. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given a very gracious thought of the future world import and export situation in terms of trade.

* Accepted in ICDLAIR 2021 
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Empirical Risk Minimization for Time Series: Nonparametric Performance Bounds for Prediction

Aug 11, 2021
Christian Brownlees, Jordi Llorens-Terrazas

Empirical risk minimization is a standard principle for choosing algorithms in learning theory. In this paper we study the properties of empirical risk minimization for time series. The analysis is carried out in a general framework that covers different types of forecasting applications encountered in the literature. We are concerned with 1-step-ahead prediction of a univariate time series generated by a parameter-driven process. A class of recursive algorithms is available to forecast the time series. The algorithms are recursive in the sense that the forecast produced in a given period is a function of the lagged values of the forecast and of the time series. The relationship between the generating mechanism of the time series and the class of algorithms is unspecified. Our main result establishes that the algorithm chosen by empirical risk minimization achieves asymptotically the optimal predictive performance that is attainable within the class of algorithms.

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Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?

Jun 01, 2022
Ailing Zeng, Muxi Chen, Lei Zhang, Qiang Xu

Recently, there has been a surge of Transformer-based solutions for the time series forecasting (TSF) task, especially for the challenging long-term TSF problem. Transformer architecture relies on self-attention mechanisms to effectively extract the semantic correlations between paired elements in a long sequence, which is permutation-invariant and anti-ordering to some extent. However, in time series modeling, we are to extract the temporal relations among an ordering set of continuous points. Consequently, whether Transformer-based techniques are the right solutions for long-term time series forecasting is an interesting problem to investigate, despite the performance improvements shown in these studies. In this work, we question the validity of Transformer-based TSF solutions. In their experiments, the compared (non-Transformer) baselines are mainly autoregressive forecasting solutions, which usually have a poor long-term prediction capability due to inevitable error accumulation effects. In contrast, we use an embarrassingly simple architecture named DLinear that conducts direct multi-step (DMS) forecasting for comparison. DLinear decomposes the time series into a trend and a remainder series and employs two one-layer linear networks to model these two series for the forecasting task. Surprisingly, it outperforms existing complex Transformer-based models in most cases by a large margin. Therefore, we conclude that the relatively higher long-term forecasting accuracy of Transformer-based TSF solutions shown in existing works has little to do with the temporal relation extraction capabilities of the Transformer architecture. Instead, it is mainly due to the non-autoregressive DMS forecasting strategy used in them. We hope this study also advocates revisiting the validity of Transformer-based solutions for other time series analysis tasks (e.g., anomaly detection) in the future.

* Code is available at 
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Multi-head Temporal Attention-Augmented Bilinear Network for Financial time series prediction

Jan 14, 2022
Mostafa Shabani, Dat Thanh Tran, Martin Magris, Juho Kanniainen, Alexandros Iosifidis

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most challenging domains in the field of time-series analysis. This is mostly due to the highly non-stationary and noisy nature of financial time-series data. With progressive efforts of the community to design specialized neural networks incorporating prior domain knowledge, many financial analysis and forecasting problems have been successfully tackled. The temporal attention mechanism is a neural layer design that recently gained popularity due to its ability to focus on important temporal events. In this paper, we propose a neural layer based on the ideas of temporal attention and multi-head attention to extend the capability of the underlying neural network in focusing simultaneously on multiple temporal instances. The effectiveness of our approach is validated using large-scale limit-order book market data to forecast the direction of mid-price movements. Our experiments show that the use of multi-head temporal attention modules leads to enhanced prediction performances compared to baseline models.

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Trading via Image Classification

Jul 23, 2019
Naftali Cohen, Tucker Balch, Manuela Veloso

The art of systematic financial trading evolved with an array of approaches, ranging from simple strategies to complex algorithms all relying, primary, on aspects of time-series analysis. Recently, after visiting the trading floor of a leading financial institution, we noticed that traders always execute their trade orders while observing images of financial time-series on their screens. In this work, we built upon the success in image recognition and examine the value in transforming the traditional time-series analysis to that of image classification. We create a large sample of financial time-series images encoded as candlestick (Box and Whisker) charts and label the samples following three algebraically-defined binary trade strategies. Using the images, we train over a dozen machine-learning classification models and find that the algorithms are very efficient in recovering the complicated, multiscale label-generating rules when the data is represented visually. We suggest that the transformation of continuous numeric time-series classification problem to a vision problem is useful for recovering signals typical of technical analysis.

* Submitted to Neurips 2019 
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Sparse-GEV: Sparse Latent Space Model for Multivariate Extreme Value Time Serie Modeling

Jun 18, 2012
Yan Liu, Taha Bahadori, Hongfei Li

In many applications of time series models, such as climate analysis and social media analysis, we are often interested in extreme events, such as heatwave, wind gust, and burst of topics. These time series data usually exhibit a heavy-tailed distribution rather than a Gaussian distribution. This poses great challenges to existing approaches due to the significantly different assumptions on the data distributions and the lack of sufficient past data on extreme events. In this paper, we propose the Sparse-GEV model, a latent state model based on the theory of extreme value modeling to automatically learn sparse temporal dependence and make predictions. Our model is theoretically significant because it is among the first models to learn sparse temporal dependencies among multivariate extreme value time series. We demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithm to the state-of-art methods, including Granger causality, copula approach, and transfer entropy, on one synthetic dataset, one climate dataset and two Twitter datasets.

* ICML2012 
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Learning Correlation Space for Time Series

May 15, 2018
Han Qiu, Hoang Thanh Lam, Francesco Fusco, Mathieu Sinn

We propose an approximation algorithm for efficient correlation search in time series data. In our method, we use Fourier transform and neural network to embed time series into a low-dimensional Euclidean space. The given space is learned such that time series correlation can be effectively approximated from Euclidean distance between corresponding embedded vectors. Therefore, search for correlated time series can be done using an index in the embedding space for efficient nearest neighbor search. Our theoretical analysis illustrates that our method's accuracy can be guaranteed under certain regularity conditions. We further conduct experiments on real-world datasets and the results show that our method indeed outperforms the baseline solution. In particular, for approximation of correlation, our method reduces the approximation loss by a half in most test cases compared to the baseline solution. For top-$k$ highest correlation search, our method improves the precision from 5\% to 20\% while the query time is similar to the baseline approach query time.

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