Risk-Aware Financial Forecasting Enhanced by Machine Learning and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

In the face of increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity, this study presents a novel risk-aware financial forecasting framework that integrates advanced machine learning techniques with intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). Tailored to the BIST 100 index and validated through a case study of a major defense company in Türkiye, the framework fuses structured financial data, unstructured text data, and macroeconomic indicators to enhance predictive accuracy and robustness. It incorporates a hybrid suite of models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, graph neural network (GNN), to deliver probabilistic forecasts with quantified uncertainty. The empirical results demonstrate high forecasting accuracy, with a net profit mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.03% and narrow 95% confidence intervals for key financial indicators. The risk-aware analysis indicates a favorable risk-return profile, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.25 and a higher Sortino ratio of 1.80, suggesting relatively low downside volatility and robust performance under market fluctuations. Sensitivity analysis shows that the key financial indicator predictions are highly sensitive to variations of inflation, interest rates, sentiment, and exchange rates. Additionally, using an intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM approach, combining entropy weighting, evaluation based on distance from the average solution (EDAS), and the measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) methods, the tabular data learning network (TabNet) outperforms the other models and is identified as the most suitable candidate for deployment. Overall, the findings of this work highlight the importance of integrating advanced machine learning, risk quantification, and fuzzy MCDM methodologies in financial forecasting, particularly in emerging markets.

AHaSIS: Shared Task on Sentiment Analysis for Arabic Dialects

The hospitality industry in the Arab world increasingly relies on customer feedback to shape services, driving the need for advanced Arabic sentiment analysis tools. To address this challenge, the Sentiment Analysis on Arabic Dialects in the Hospitality Domain shared task focuses on Sentiment Detection in Arabic Dialects. This task leverages a multi-dialect, manually curated dataset derived from hotel reviews originally written in Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) and translated into Saudi and Moroccan (Darija) dialects. The dataset consists of 538 sentiment-balanced reviews spanning positive, neutral, and negative categories. Translations were validated by native speakers to ensure dialectal accuracy and sentiment preservation. This resource supports the development of dialect-aware NLP systems for real-world applications in customer experience analysis. More than 40 teams have registered for the shared task, with 12 submitting systems during the evaluation phase. The top-performing system achieved an F1 score of 0.81, demonstrating the feasibility and ongoing challenges of sentiment analysis across Arabic dialects.

From Graphs to Hypergraphs: Enhancing Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis via Multi-Level Relational Modeling

Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) predicts sentiment polarity for specific aspect terms, a task made difficult by conflicting sentiments across aspects and the sparse context of short texts. Prior graph-based approaches model only pairwise dependencies, forcing them to construct multiple graphs for different relational views. These introduce redundancy, parameter overhead, and error propagation during fusion, limiting robustness in short-text, low-resource settings. We present HyperABSA, a dynamic hypergraph framework that induces aspect-opinion structures through sample-specific hierarchical clustering. To construct these hyperedges, we introduce a novel acceleration-fallback cutoff for hierarchical clustering, which adaptively determines the level of granularity. Experiments on three benchmarks (Lap14, Rest14, MAMS) show consistent improvements over strong graph baselines, with substantial gains when paired with RoBERTa backbones. These results position dynamic hypergraph construction as an efficient, powerful alternative for ABSA, with potential extensions to other short-text NLP tasks.

Aspect-Level Obfuscated Sentiment in Thai Financial Disclosures and Its Impact on Abnormal Returns

Understanding sentiment in financial documents is crucial for gaining insights into market behavior. These reports often contain obfuscated language designed to present a positive or neutral outlook, even when underlying conditions may be less favorable. This paper presents a novel approach using Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) to decode obfuscated sentiment in Thai financial annual reports. We develop specific guidelines for annotating obfuscated sentiment in these texts and annotate more than one hundred financial reports. We then benchmark various text classification models on this annotated dataset, demonstrating strong performance in sentiment classification. Additionally, we conduct an event study to evaluate the real-world implications of our sentiment analysis on stock prices. Our results suggest that market reactions are selectively influenced by specific aspects within the reports. Our findings underscore the complexity of sentiment analysis in financial texts and highlight the importance of addressing obfuscated language to accurately assess market sentiment.

Extending a Parliamentary Corpus with MPs' Tweets: Automatic Annotation and Evaluation Using MultiParTweet

Social media serves as a critical medium in modern politics because it both reflects politicians' ideologies and facilitates communication with younger generations. We present MultiParTweet, a multilingual tweet corpus from X that connects politicians' social media discourse with German political corpus GerParCor, thereby enabling comparative analyses between online communication and parliamentary debates. MultiParTweet contains 39 546 tweets, including 19 056 media items. Furthermore, we enriched the annotation with nine text-based models and one vision-language model (VLM) to annotate MultiParTweet with emotion, sentiment, and topic annotations. Moreover, the automated annotations are evaluated against a manually annotated subset. MultiParTweet can be reconstructed using our tool, TTLABTweetCrawler, which provides a framework for collecting data from X. To demonstrate a methodological demonstration, we examine whether the models can predict each other using the outputs of the remaining models. In summary, we provide MultiParTweet, a resource integrating automatic text and media-based annotations validated with human annotations, and TTLABTweetCrawler, a general-purpose X data collection tool. Our analysis shows that the models are mutually predictable. In addition, VLM-based annotation were preferred by human annotators, suggesting that multimodal representations align more with human interpretation.

Semiconductor Industry Trend Prediction with Event Intervention Based on LSTM Model in Sentiment-Enhanced Time Series Data

The innovation of the study is that the deep learning method and sentiment analysis are integrated in traditional business model analysis and forecasting, and the research subject is TSMC for industry trend prediction of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. For the rapid market changes and development of wafer technologies of semiconductor industry, traditional data analysis methods not perform well in the high variety and time series data. Textual data and time series data were collected from seasonal reports of TSMC including financial information. Textual data through sentiment analysis by considering the event intervention both from internal events of the company and the external global events. Using the sentiment-enhanced time series data, the LSTM model was adopted for predicting industry trend of TSMC. The prediction results reveal significant development of wafer technology of TSMC and the potential threatens in the global market, and matches the product released news of TSMC and the international news. The contribution of the work performed accurately in industry trend prediction of the semiconductor industry by considering both the internal and external event intervention, and the prediction results provide valuable information of semiconductor industry both in research and business aspects.

Improving Multimodal Sentiment Analysis via Modality Optimization and Dynamic Primary Modality Selection

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) aims to predict sentiment from language, acoustic, and visual data in videos. However, imbalanced unimodal performance often leads to suboptimal fused representations. Existing approaches typically adopt fixed primary modality strategies to maximize dominant modality advantages, yet fail to adapt to dynamic variations in modality importance across different samples. Moreover, non-language modalities suffer from sequential redundancy and noise, degrading model performance when they serve as primary inputs. To address these issues, this paper proposes a modality optimization and dynamic primary modality selection framework (MODS). First, a Graph-based Dynamic Sequence Compressor (GDC) is constructed, which employs capsule networks and graph convolution to reduce sequential redundancy in acoustic/visual modalities. Then, we develop a sample-adaptive Primary Modality Selector (MSelector) for dynamic dominance determination. Finally, a Primary-modality-Centric Cross-Attention (PCCA) module is designed to enhance dominant modalities while facilitating cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that MODS outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior performance by effectively balancing modality contributions and eliminating redundant noise.

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

Sentiment Analysis On YouTube Comments Using Machine Learning Techniques Based On Video Games Content

The rapid evolution of the gaming industry, driven by technological advancements and a burgeoning community, necessitates a deeper understanding of user sentiments, especially as expressed on popular social media platforms like YouTube. This study presents a sentiment analysis on video games based on YouTube comments, aiming to understand user sentiments within the gaming community. Utilizing YouTube API, comments related to various video games were collected and analyzed using the TextBlob sentiment analysis tool. The pre-processed data underwent classification using machine learning algorithms, including Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Among these, SVM demonstrated superior performance, achieving the highest classification accuracy across different datasets. The analysis spanned multiple popular gaming videos, revealing trends and insights into user preferences and critiques. The findings underscore the importance of advanced sentiment analysis in capturing the nuanced emotions expressed in user comments, providing valuable feedback for game developers to enhance game design and user experience. Future research will focus on integrating more sophisticated natural language processing techniques and exploring additional data sources to further refine sentiment analysis in the gaming domain.

Three Stage Narrative Analysis; Plot-Sentiment Breakdown, Structure Learning and Concept Detection

Story understanding and analysis have long been challenging areas within Natural Language Understanding. Automated narrative analysis requires deep computational semantic representations along with syntactic processing. Moreover, the large volume of narrative data demands automated semantic analysis and computational learning rather than manual analytical approaches. In this paper, we propose a framework that analyzes the sentiment arcs of movie scripts and performs extended analysis related to the context of the characters involved. The framework enables the extraction of high-level and low-level concepts conveyed through the narrative. Using dictionary-based sentiment analysis, our approach applies a custom lexicon built with the LabMTsimple storylab module. The custom lexicon is based on the Valence, Arousal, and Dominance scores from the NRC-VAD dataset. Furthermore, the framework advances the analysis by clustering similar sentiment plots using Wards hierarchical clustering technique. Experimental evaluation on a movie dataset shows that the resulting analysis is helpful to consumers and readers when selecting a narrative or story.