MissBench: Benchmarking Multimodal Affective Analysis under Imbalanced Missing Modalities

Multimodal affective computing underpins key tasks such as sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. Standard evaluations, however, often assume that textual, acoustic, and visual modalities are equally available. In real applications, some modalities are systematically more fragile or expensive, creating imbalanced missing rates and training biases that task-level metrics alone do not reveal. We introduce MissBench, a benchmark and framework for multimodal affective tasks that standardizes both shared and imbalanced missing-rate protocols on four widely used sentiment and emotion datasets. MissBench also defines two diagnostic metrics. The Modality Equity Index (MEI) measures how fairly different modalities contribute across missing-modality configurations. The Modality Learning Index (MLI) quantifies optimization imbalance by comparing modality-specific gradient norms during training, aggregated across modality-related modules. Experiments on representative method families show that models that appear robust under shared missing rates can still exhibit marked modality inequity and optimization imbalance under imbalanced conditions. These findings position MissBench, together with MEI and MLI, as practical tools for stress-testing and analyzing multimodal affective models in realistic incomplete-modality settings.For reproducibility, we release our code at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MissBench-4098/

Emotion is Not Just a Label: Latent Emotional Factors in LLM Processing

Large language models are routinely deployed on text that varies widely in emotional tone, yet their reasoning behavior is typically evaluated without accounting for emotion as a source of representational variation. Prior work has largely treated emotion as a prediction target, for example in sentiment analysis or emotion classification. In contrast, we study emotion as a latent factor that shapes how models attend to and reason over text. We analyze how emotional tone systematically alters attention geometry in transformer models, showing that metrics such as locality, center-of-mass distance, and entropy vary across emotions and correlate with downstream question-answering performance. To facilitate controlled study of these effects, we introduce Affect-Uniform ReAding QA (AURA-QA), a question-answering dataset with emotionally balanced, human-authored context passages. Finally, an emotional regularization framework is proposed that constrains emotion-conditioned representational drift during training. Experiments across multiple QA benchmarks demonstrate that this approach improves reading comprehension in both emotionally-varying and non-emotionally varying datasets, yielding consistent gains under distribution shift and in-domain improvements on several benchmarks.

Beyond Polarity: Multi-Dimensional LLM Sentiment Signals for WTI Crude Oil Futures Return Prediction

Forecasting crude oil prices remains challenging because market-relevant information is embedded in large volumes of unstructured news and is not fully captured by traditional polarity-based sentiment measures. This paper examines whether multi-dimensional sentiment signals extracted by large language models improve the prediction of weekly WTI crude oil futures returns. Using energy-sector news articles from 2020 to 2025, we construct five sentiment dimensions covering relevance, polarity, intensity, uncertainty, and forwardness based on GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and two benchmark models, FinBERT and AlphaVantage. We aggregate article-level signals to the weekly level and evaluate their predictive performance in a classification framework. The best results are achieved by combining GPT-4o and FinBERT, suggesting that LLM-based and conventional financial sentiment models provide complementary predictive information. SHAP analysis further shows that intensity- and uncertainty-related features are among the most important predictors, indicating that the predictive value of news sentiment extends beyond simple polarity. Overall, the results suggest that multi-dimensional LLM-based sentiment measures can improve commodity return forecasting and support energy-market risk monitoring.

QuadAI at SemEval-2026 Task 3: Ensemble Learning of Hybrid RoBERTa and LLMs for Dimensional Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

We present our system for SemEval-2026 Task 3 on dimensional aspect-based sentiment regression. Our approach combines a hybrid RoBERTa encoder, which jointly predicts sentiment using regression and discretized classification heads, with large language models (LLMs) via prediction-level ensemble learning. The hybrid encoder improves prediction stability by combining continuous and discretized sentiment representations. We further explore in-context learning with LLMs and ridge-regression stacking to combine encoder and LLM predictions. Experimental results on the development set show that ensemble learning significantly improves performance over individual models, achieving substantial reductions in RMSE and improvements in correlation scores. Our findings demonstrate the complementary strengths of encoder-based and LLM-based approaches for dimensional sentiment analysis. Our development code and resources will be shared at https://github.com/aaronlifenghan/ABSentiment

The AI Fiction Paradox

AI development has a fiction dependency problem: models are built on massive corpora of modern fiction and desperately need more of it, yet they struggle to generate it. I term this the AI-Fiction Paradox and it is particularly startling because in machine learning, training data typically determines output quality. This paper offers a theoretically precise account of why fiction resists AI generation by identifying three distinct challenges for current architectures. First, fiction depends on what I call narrative causation, a form of plot logic where events must feel both surprising in the moment and retrospectively inevitable. This temporal paradox fundamentally conflicts with the forward-generation logic of transformer architectures. Second, I identify an informational revaluation challenge: fiction systematically violates the computational assumption that informational importance aligns with statistical salience, requiring readers and models alike to retrospectively reweight the significance of narrative details in ways that current attention mechanisms cannot perform. Third, drawing on over seven years of collaborative research on sentiment arcs, I argue that compelling fiction requires multi-scale emotional architecture, the orchestration of sentiment at word, sentence, scene, and arc levels simultaneously. Together, these three challenges explain both why AI companies have risked billion-dollar lawsuits for access to modern fiction and why that fiction remains so difficult to replicate. The analysis also raises urgent questions about what happens when these challenges are overcome. Fiction concentrates uniquely powerful cognitive and emotional patterns for modeling human behavior, and mastery of these patterns by AI systems would represent not just a creative achievement but a potent vehicle for human manipulation at scale.

AILS-NTUA at SemEval-2026 Task 3: Efficient Dimensional Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

In this paper, we present AILS-NTUA system for Track-A of SemEval-2026 Task 3 on Dimensional Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (DimABSA), which encompasses three complementary problems: Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Regression (DimASR), Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Triplet Extraction (DimASTE), and Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Quadruplet Prediction (DimASQP) within a multilingual and multi-domain framework. Our methodology combines fine-tuning of language-appropriate encoder backbones for continuous aspect-level sentiment prediction with language-specific instruction tuning of large language models using LoRA for structured triplet and quadruplet extraction. This unified yet task-adaptive design emphasizes parameter-efficient specialization across languages and domains, enabling reduced training and inference requirements while maintaining strong effectiveness. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed models achieve competitive performance and consistently surpass the provided baselines across most evaluation settings.

Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting

By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices, and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative, remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting.

AnnoABSA: A Web-Based Annotation Tool for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis with Retrieval-Augmented Suggestions

We introduce AnnoABSA, the first web-based annotation tool to support the full spectrum of Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) tasks. The tool is highly customizable, enabling flexible configuration of sentiment elements and task-specific requirements. Alongside manual annotation, AnnoABSA provides optional Large Language Model (LLM)-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) suggestions that offer context-aware assistance in a human-in-the-loop approach, keeping the human annotator in control. To improve prediction quality over time, the system retrieves the ten most similar examples that are already annotated and adds them as few-shot examples in the prompt, ensuring that suggestions become increasingly accurate as the annotation process progresses. Released as open-source software under the MIT License, AnnoABSA is freely accessible and easily extendable for research and practical applications.

nchellwig at SemEval-2026 Task 3: Self-Consistent Structured Generation (SCSG) for Dimensional Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis using Large Language Models

We present Self-Consistent Structured Generation (SCSG) for Dimensional Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis in SemEval-2026 Task 3 (Track A). SCSG enhances prediction reliability by executing a LoRA-adapted large language model multiple times per instance, retaining only tuples that achieve a majority consensus across runs. To mitigate the computational overhead of multiple forward passes, we leverage vLLM's PagedAttention mechanism for efficient key--value cache reuse. Evaluation across 6 languages and 8 language--domain combinations demonstrates that self-consistency with 15 executions yields statistically significant improvements over single-inference prompting, with our system (leveraging Gemma 3) ranking in the top seven across all settings, achieving second place on three out of four English subsets and first place on Tatar-Restaurant for DimASTE.

LLM-as-an-Annotator: Training Lightweight Models with LLM-Annotated Examples for Aspect Sentiment Tuple Prediction

Training models for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) tasks requires manually annotated data, which is expensive and time-consuming to obtain. This paper introduces LA-ABSA, a novel approach that leverages Large Language Model (LLM)-generated annotations to fine-tune lightweight models for complex ABSA tasks. We evaluate our approach on five datasets for Target Aspect Sentiment Detection (TASD) and Aspect Sentiment Quad Prediction (ASQP). Our approach outperformed previously reported augmentation strategies and achieved competitive performance with LLM-prompting in low-resource scenarios, while providing substantial energy efficiency benefits. For example, using 50 annotated examples for in-context learning (ICL) to guide the annotation of unlabeled data, LA-ABSA achieved an F1 score of 49.85 for ASQP on the SemEval Rest16 dataset, closely matching the performance of ICL prompting with Gemma-3-27B (51.10), while requiring significantly lower computational resources.