X-VORTEX: Spatio-Temporal Contrastive Learning for Wake Vortex Trajectory Forecasting

Wake vortices are strong, coherent air turbulences created by aircraft, and they pose a major safety and capacity challenge for air traffic management. Tracking how vortices move, weaken, and dissipate over time from LiDAR measurements is still difficult because scans are sparse, vortex signatures fade as the flow breaks down under atmospheric turbulence and instabilities, and point-wise annotation is prohibitively expensive. Existing approaches largely treat each scan as an independent, fully supervised segmentation problem, which overlooks temporal structure and does not scale to the vast unlabeled archives collected in practice. We present X-VORTEX, a spatio-temporal contrastive learning framework grounded in Augmentation Overlap Theory that learns physics-aware representations from unlabeled LiDAR point cloud sequences. X-VORTEX addresses two core challenges: sensor sparsity and time-varying vortex dynamics. It constructs paired inputs from the same underlying flight event by combining a weakly perturbed sequence with a strongly augmented counterpart produced via temporal subsampling and spatial masking, encouraging the model to align representations across missing frames and partial observations. Architecturally, a time-distributed geometric encoder extracts per-scan features and a sequential aggregator models the evolving vortex state across variable-length sequences. We evaluate on a real-world dataset of over one million LiDAR scans. X-VORTEX achieves superior vortex center localization while using only 1% of the labeled data required by supervised baselines, and the learned representations support accurate trajectory forecasting.

GRAIL: Geometry-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Inference with LLMs over Hyperbolic Representations of Patient Trajectories

Predicting future clinical events from longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) is challenging due to sparse multi-type clinical events, hierarchical medical vocabularies, and the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to hallucinate when reasoning over long structured histories. We study next-visit event prediction, which aims to forecast a patient's upcoming clinical events based on prior visits. We propose GRAIL, a framework that models longitudinal EHRs using structured geometric representations and structure-aware retrieval. GRAIL constructs a unified clinical graph by combining deterministic coding-system hierarchies with data-driven temporal associations across event types, embeds this graph in hyperbolic space, and summarizes each visit as a probabilistic Central Event that denoises sparse observations. At inference time, GRAIL retrieves a structured set of clinically plausible future events aligned with hierarchical and temporal progression, and optionally refines their ranking using an LLM as a constrained inference-time reranker. Experiments on MIMIC-IV show that GRAIL consistently improves multi-type next-visit prediction and yields more hierarchy-consistent forecasts.

TRACE: Temporal Reasoning via Agentic Context Evolution for Streaming Electronic Health Records (EHRs)

Large Language Models (LLMs) encode extensive medical knowledge but struggle to apply it reliably to longitudinal patient trajectories, where evolving clinical states, irregular timing, and heterogeneous events degrade performance over time. Existing adaptation strategies rely on fine-tuning or retrieval-based augmentation, which introduce computational overhead, privacy constraints, or instability under long contexts. We introduce TRACE (Temporal Reasoning via Agentic Context Evolution), a framework that enables temporal clinical reasoning with frozen LLMs by explicitly structuring and maintaining context rather than extending context windows or updating parameters. TRACE operates over a dual-memory architecture consisting of a static Global Protocol encoding institutional clinical rules and a dynamic Individual Protocol tracking patient-specific state. Four agentic components, Router, Reasoner, Auditor, and Steward, coordinate over this structured memory to support temporal inference and state evolution. The framework maintains bounded inference cost via structured state compression and selectively audits safety-critical clinical decisions. Evaluated on longitudinal clinical event streams from MIMIC-IV, TRACE significantly improves next-event prediction accuracy, protocol adherence, and clinical safety over long-context and retrieval-augmented baselines, while producing interpretable and auditable reasoning traces.

Benchmarking Uncertainty Calibration in Large Language Model Long-Form Question Answering

Large Language Models (LLMs) are commonly used in Question Answering (QA) settings, increasingly in the natural sciences if not science at large. Reliable Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for the trustworthy uptake of generated answers. Existing UQ approaches remain weakly validated in scientific QA, a domain relying on fact-retrieval and reasoning capabilities. We introduce the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating UQ metrics in reasoning-demanding QA studying calibration of UQ methods, providing an extensible open-source framework to reproducibly assess calibration. Our study spans up to 20 large language models of base, instruction-tuned and reasoning variants. Our analysis covers seven scientific QA datasets, including both multiple-choice and arithmetic question answering tasks, using prompting to emulate an open question answering setting. We evaluate and compare methods representative of prominent approaches on a total of 685,000 long-form responses, spanning different reasoning complexities representative of domain-specific tasks. At the token level, we find that instruction tuning induces strong probability mass polarization, reducing the reliability of token-level confidences as estimates of uncertainty. Models further fine-tuned for reasoning are exposed to the same effect, but the reasoning process appears to mitigate it depending on the provider. At the sequence level, we show that verbalized approaches are systematically biased and poorly correlated with correctness, while answer frequency (consistency across samples) yields the most reliable calibration. In the wake of our analysis, we study and report the misleading effect of relying exclusively on ECE as a sole measure for judging performance of UQ methods on benchmark datasets. Our findings expose critical limitations of current UQ methods for LLMs and standard practices in benchmarking thereof.

Analyzing Bias in False Refusal Behavior of Large Language Models for Hate Speech Detoxification

While large language models (LLMs) have increasingly been applied to hate speech detoxification, the prompts often trigger safety alerts, causing LLMs to refuse the task. In this study, we systematically investigate false refusal behavior in hate speech detoxification and analyze the contextual and linguistic biases that trigger such refusals. We evaluate nine LLMs on both English and multilingual datasets, our results show that LLMs disproportionately refuse inputs with higher semantic toxicity and those targeting specific groups, particularly nationality, religion, and political ideology. Although multilingual datasets exhibit lower overall false refusal rates than English datasets, models still display systematic, language-dependent biases toward certain targets. Based on these findings, we propose a simple cross-translation strategy, translating English hate speech into Chinese for detoxification and back, which substantially reduces false refusals while preserving the original content, providing an effective and lightweight mitigation approach.

MediEval: A Unified Medical Benchmark for Patient-Contextual and Knowledge-Grounded Reasoning in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to medicine, yet their adoption is limited by concerns over reliability and safety. Existing evaluations either test factual medical knowledge in isolation or assess patient-level reasoning without verifying correctness, leaving a critical gap. We introduce MediEval, a benchmark that links MIMIC-IV electronic health records (EHRs) to a unified knowledge base built from UMLS and other biomedical vocabularies. MediEval generates diverse factual and counterfactual medical statements within real patient contexts, enabling systematic evaluation across a 4-quadrant framework that jointly considers knowledge grounding and contextual consistency. Using this framework, we identify critical failure modes, including hallucinated support and truth inversion, that current proprietary, open-source, and domain-specific LLMs frequently exhibit. To address these risks, we propose Counterfactual Risk-Aware Fine-tuning (CoRFu), a DPO-based method with an asymmetric penalty targeting unsafe confusions. CoRFu improves by +16.4 macro-F1 points over the base model and eliminates truth inversion errors, demonstrating both higher accuracy and substantially greater safety.

Optimizing Small Transformer-Based Language Models for Multi-Label Sentiment Analysis in Short Texts

Sentiment classification in short text datasets faces significant challenges such as class imbalance, limited training samples, and the inherent subjectivity of sentiment labels -- issues that are further intensified by the limited context in short texts. These factors make it difficult to resolve ambiguity and exacerbate data sparsity, hindering effective learning. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of small Transformer-based models (i.e., BERT and RoBERTa, with fewer than 1 billion parameters) for multi-label sentiment classification, with a particular focus on short-text settings. Specifically, we evaluated three key factors influencing model performance: (1) continued domain-specific pre-training, (2) data augmentation using automatically generated examples, specifically generative data augmentation, and (3) architectural variations of the classification head. Our experiment results show that data augmentation improves classification performance, while continued pre-training on augmented datasets can introduce noise rather than boost accuracy. Furthermore, we confirm that modifications to the classification head yield only marginal benefits. These findings provide practical guidance for optimizing BERT-based models in resource-constrained settings and refining strategies for sentiment classification in short-text datasets.

CoDAE: Adapting Large Language Models for Education via Chain-of-Thought Data Augmentation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed as AI tutors due to their scalability and potential for personalized instruction. However, off-the-shelf LLMs often underperform in educational settings: they frequently reveal answers too readily, fail to adapt their responses to student uncertainty, and remain vulnerable to emotionally manipulative prompts. To address these challenges, we introduce CoDAE, a framework that adapts LLMs for educational use through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data augmentation. We collect real-world dialogues between students and a ChatGPT-based tutor and enrich them using CoT prompting to promote step-by-step reasoning and pedagogically aligned guidance. Furthermore, we design targeted dialogue cases to explicitly mitigate three key limitations: over-compliance, low response adaptivity, and threat vulnerability. We fine-tune four open-source LLMs on different variants of the augmented datasets and evaluate them in simulated educational scenarios using both automatic metrics and LLM-as-a-judge assessments. Our results show that models fine-tuned with CoDAE deliver more pedagogically appropriate guidance, better support reasoning processes, and effectively resist premature answer disclosure.

Hateful Person or Hateful Model? Investigating the Role of Personas in Hate Speech Detection by Large Language Models

Hate speech detection is a socially sensitive and inherently subjective task, with judgments often varying based on personal traits. While prior work has examined how socio-demographic factors influence annotation, the impact of personality traits on Large Language Models (LLMs) remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive study on the role of persona prompts in hate speech classification, focusing on MBTI-based traits. A human annotation survey confirms that MBTI dimensions significantly affect labeling behavior. Extending this to LLMs, we prompt four open-source models with MBTI personas and evaluate their outputs across three hate speech datasets. Our analysis uncovers substantial persona-driven variation, including inconsistencies with ground truth, inter-persona disagreement, and logit-level biases. These findings highlight the need to carefully define persona prompts in LLM-based annotation workflows, with implications for fairness and alignment with human values.

Paths to Causality: Finding Informative Subgraphs Within Knowledge Graphs for Knowledge-Based Causal Discovery

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs is crucial for understanding multivariate interactions in complex systems. Knowledge-based causal discovery -- which involves inferring causal relationships by reasoning over the metadata of variables (e.g., names or textual context) -- offers a compelling alternative to traditional methods that rely on observational data. However, existing methods using Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce unstable and inconsistent results, compromising their reliability for causal inference. To address this, we introduce a novel approach that integrates Knowledge Graphs (KGs) with LLMs to enhance knowledge-based causal discovery. Our approach identifies informative metapath-based subgraphs within KGs and further refines the selection of these subgraphs using Learning-to-Rank-based models. The top-ranked subgraphs are then incorporated into zero-shot prompts, improving the effectiveness of LLMs in inferring the causal relationship. Extensive experiments on biomedical and open-domain datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms most baselines by up to 44.4 points in F1 scores, evaluated across diverse LLMs and KGs. Our code and datasets are available on GitHub: https://github.com/susantiyuni/path-to-causality