TRACE: A Temporal Conditional Estimation for Multimodal Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TS-FMs) aim to learn generalizable temporal representations that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks. In real-world multimodal settings, time series are frequently affected by temporal misalignment and partial modality missingness, where different modalities are observed at heterogeneous time scales or are partially absent. Existing approaches typically rely on naive imputation or masking strategies, which fail to account for cross-modal dependencies and often lead to misaligned or degraded representations. We propose TRACE, a conditional estimation paradigm for multimodal time series foundation model pipelines under missingness and irregular sampling, allowing incomplete target modalities to be systematically inferred from available auxiliary modalities. We evaluate TRACE on diverse multimodal benchmarks spanning healthcare and affective computing, including the MIMIC-IV clinical dataset and the CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI benchmarks for multimodal sentiment analysis. Across a range of downstream prediction tasks and missing-modality settings, TRACE consistently outperforms prior multimodal fusion approaches, demonstrating improved robustness to severe modality missingness and more reliable cross-modal representations.

LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with $σ$-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

DiffuSent: Towards a Unified Diffusion Framework for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) encompasses seven distinct subtasks, each focusing on different extracted elements. Despite the proven success of generative models in unified aspect sentiment analysis, existing approaches often rely on auto-regressive token-by-token generation without grasping the whole information of the aspect and opinion terms, resulting in boundary insensitivity, particularly in context of multi-word aspect and opinion terms. To address these issues, we present DiffuSent, a non-auto-regressive diffusion framework that systematically formulates all ABSA subtasks as boundary denoising diffusion processes, progressively refining boundaries over noisy states. Furthermore, we introduce a contrastive denoising training strategy which effectively address duplicate predictions with subtle variations introduced by diffusion process. Extensive experiments across 28 settings (7 subtasks x 4 datasets) demonstrate that DiffuSent achieves delivers consistent improvements over the strongest generative and span-based systems. DiffuSent exhibits notable gains on multi-word triplets, achieving an average improvement of +2.48 F1, and maintains robust extraction accuracy in sentences containing multiple sentiment triplets. Moreover, the non-auto-regressive decoding enables substantial efficiency benefits, reaching up to 181 times faster inference than auto-regressive generative baselines

Using Text-Based Causal Inference to Disentangle Factors Influencing Online Review Ratings

Online reviews provide valuable insights into the perceived quality of facets of a product or service. While aspect-based sentiment analysis has focused on extracting these facets from reviews, there is less work understanding the impact of each aspect on overall perception. This is particularly challenging given correlations among aspects, making it difficult to isolate the effects of each. This paper introduces a methodology based on recent advances in text-based causal analysis, specifically CausalBERT, to disentangle the effect of each factor on overall review ratings. We enhance CausalBERT with three key improvements: temperature scaling for better calibrated treatment assignment estimates; hyperparameter optimization to reduce confound overadjustment; and interpretability methods to characterize discovered confounds. In this work, we treat the textual mentions in reviews as proxies for real-world attributes. We validate our approach on real and semi-synthetic data from over 600K reviews of U.S. K-12 schools. We find that the proposed enhancements result in more reliable estimates, and that perception of school administration and performance on benchmarks are significant drivers of overall school ratings.

Interpretable Crisis Behavior Analysis Using Mobility and Social Media Data

Crises alter both how people move and how they communicate. During emergencies such as wildfires and pandemics, changes in mobility patterns and online emotional discourse evolve jointly, yet they are typically studied in isolation. This paper presents a unified and interpretable pipeline that integrates mobility and social media data to identify cross-domain behavioral patterns in crisis settings. The framework is evaluated through two case studies: a short-horizon analysis of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires (prototype case) and a longitudinal analysis of UAE COVID-19 behavior from March 2020 to December 2021 (primary case, 671 days). The pipeline aligns heterogeneous daily signals, transforms them into binary behavioral states, applies Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) to extract co-occurrence structure, mines association rules, and validates rule stability through chronological holdout testing. A structured policy-translation layer renders robust rules as operational briefs specifying triggers, lead times, and action playbooks. Results reveal clear cross-domain behavioral structure in both crises. In the wildfire case, traffic stress, fear/anger sentiment, and governance discourse are tightly coupled within a 33-day window, with key rules reaching 100\% confidence and lift scores up to 2.5. In the COVID case, repeated mobility adaptation and sentiment volatility yield 8 stable same-day rules (88\% holdout pass rate) and 40 clean predictive rules with 2--7 day lead horizons. The work demonstrates that interpretable multimodal fusion can produce both scientifically credible and policy-actionable crisis intelligence.

Beyond Accuracy: Community Perspectives on Machine Translation

Despite remarkable progress in machine translation (MT), non-AI communities have raised growing concerns about MT systems, suggesting a noticeable gap between technical advancement and the needs of real-world users. For instance, while NLP researchers focus on benchmark performance, end users care about ethical concerns, trust, reliability, costs, and more. We argue that listening to various user communities is essential so that research efforts would be directed towards the problems that the communities care about. To this end, we present a large-scale analysis, for the first time, that investigates what four stakeholder communities (AI developers, professional translators, language learners, and language service providers) post about MT technology on social media. To do so, we construct a dataset of 79,286 posts and comments from Reddit, Facebook, Bluesky, and Mastodon from 2019 to 2025, and analyse where these communities disagree, and how and why. Overall, we find that communities often disagree, and even show strong conflicts due to polarised sentiments on topics such as translation quality, efficiency, and reliability. This is because these communities approach these topics differently: the AI community frames them as technical and computational problems, while non-AI (user) communities care more about quality nuances, time savings, user trust, and broader social issues.

A Conflict-Aware Penalty and Statistical Loss Framework for Balancing Modalities and Enhancing Stability in Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) fuses text, acoustic, and visual streams to infer sentiment. Because pre-trained text encoders are far more expressive than their acoustic and visual counterparts, the text modality tends to dominate optimization, suppressing weaker modalities and inducing gradient norm conflicts that destabilize training. To address this, we propose a Conflict-aware Penalty (CP) that detects and penalizes gradient norm conflicts at each training step, and a Statistical Loss (SL) that aligns predicted distribution statistics with empirical input statistics. Crucially, CP prevents dominant modality gradients from interfering with the SL objective, enabling synergistic training within a unified framework incorporating adaptive modality encoding, gated cross-modal fusion, and unimodal auxiliary heads. Experiments on CMU-MOSI demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with ablation studies confirming the effectiveness of each component.

Prompting Is All You Need: Multi-view Prompting Large Language Models for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Recent work explored the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) through few-shot prompting, requiring substantially fewer annotated examples while achieving notable improvements over zero-shot baselines. However, a performance gap remained compared to models fine-tuned on hundreds of examples, and the computational costs of LLM inference present practical barriers to deployment. We introduce LLM-based Multi-View Prompting (LLM-MvP), which adapts the multi-view principle of considering multiple element orderings to LLM prompting. By combining schema-constrained decoding with a context-free grammar and prefix batching, LLM-MvP achieves performance competitive or superior to fine-tuned approaches while substantially reducing computational overhead. Extensive experiments across five benchmark datasets demonstrate that LLM-MvP closes the gap between few-shot prompting and fine-tuned models, offering a practical and efficient solution for ABSA.

Does Topic Sentiment Cause Perceived Ideology? Comparing Human and LLM Annotations in Political News Articles

We ask whether topic sentiment has a causal effect on perceived political ideology, and whether the answer depends on who assigns the ideology label. Using articles from AllSides, paired with shared sentiment annotations from Llama-3.3-70b-versatile, we compare ideology labels from expert human annotators, GPT-4o-mini (baseline and finetuned), and Llama-3.3-70B. We apply Double Machine Learning (DML) and community-level mediation analysis across all four annotation paradigms. Human annotations yield no significant causal effects at the community level. Fine-tuned GPT-4o-mini achieves the highest classification accuracy (F1=72.48) and is the only annotator paradigm that produces significant community-level treatment effects and significant natural direct effects (NDEs) in mediation. We interpret this as evidence of shortcut learning: fine-tuning on ideology-labeled data causes the model to internalise a spurious sentiment--ideology coupling not operative in human judgment for this task. This coupling is structurally invisible to F1-based evaluation, with implications for the use of LLM annotations as silver labels and as proxies for human judgment in downstream causal analyses.

A Controlled Synthetic Benchmark for Educational Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Educational aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can support course improvement, but public aspect-labeled student feedback remains scarce because educational reviews are private, institution-specific, and expensive to annotate. This study introduces a controlled synthetic benchmark for educational ABSA built from 10,000 synthetic course reviews with explicit train-validation-test splits and a 20-aspect pedagogical schema spanning instructional quality, assessment and course management, learning demand, learning environment, and engagement. The corpus is generated with sampled target labels, sampled nuance attributes, and a realism-tuned prompt refined through a three-cycle judge-editor procedure. On the resulting benchmark, local baselines with TF-IDF, two-step transformers, and joint encoders show that the task is nontrivial; the strongest untuned model, BERT, reaches a held-out detection micro-F1 of 0.2760, while a modest lower-rate BERT schedule improves this to 0.2930. Full-test GPT-based inference with gpt-5.2 reaches 0.2519 micro-F1 in zero-shot mode and 0.2501 with retrieval-based few-shot prompting, placing batch inference above the classical baseline and close to the compact joint encoders. A conservative external evaluation on 2,829 mapped student-feedback reviews from Herath et al. yields a micro-F1 of 0.4593 for BERT on a 9-aspect overlap, indicating partial synthetic-to-real transfer. Realism and faithfulness analyses are reported as generator diagnostics that clarify how the benchmark was stabilized and where label noise remains. The study therefore contributes a synthetic educational ABSA corpus, a documented generation procedure, and a reproducible benchmark setting for a domain in which public labeled data remain difficult to obtain.