Reinforced Preference Optimization for Reasoning-Augmented Recommendations

Recommender systems are critical for delivering personalized content across digital platforms, and recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to enhance them with richer world knowledge and explicit reasoning capabilities. With the help of reasoning knowledge, recommendations can better infer users' underlying intents, adapt to evolving preferences, and leverage semantic relationships for improved accuracy and interpretability. However, existing reasoning-based recommendation methods often fail to fully align the LLM's reasoning process with recommendation-specific objectives due to structural disruption during integration and difficulties in translating free-form generation into accurate item predictions. In this paper, we introduce RPORec, a reinforced preference optimization framework that unifies an LLM backbone's reasoning ability with a dedicated recommendation head (Rechead) for precise item retrieval. RPORec comprises two stages: (1) Reasoning-Augmented Recommendation Modeling, where high-quality Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning is generated and used as auxiliary knowledge to guide the Rechead in learning recommendation-specific representations; and (2) Advanced Reasoning Refinement and Alignment, in which the trained Rechead produces verifiable rewards to fine-tune the LLM backbone via reinforcement learning, enhancing reasoning quality, structural consistency, and task relevance. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks and large-scale online deployments show that RPORec consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based recommendation methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of reasoning-augmented recommendation modeling in real-world systems.

When to Switch, Not Just What: Transition Quality Prediction in Clash Royale

In competitive games, players frequently switch strategies after losing streaks, yet our analysis of 926,334 match records from 34,619 Clash Royale players reveals a counterintuitive pattern: switching frequency is inversely associated with the win rate, with effects that vary substantially across players and situational contexts. We attribute this to a limitation common in many prior recommendation systems, which evaluate strategies by expected quality while overlooking the behavioral cost of switching and individual differences in switching propensity. We refer to this implicit premise as the Zero Switching Cost Assumption. To address this, we reformulate strategy recommendation as a transition-level decision problem and instantiate it as TQP (Transition Quality Predictor), a three-stage pipeline structured as Who -> When -> What. PersonaGate suppresses recommendations for players whose strategic consistency is empirically associated with superior outcomes. TimingGate identifies moments when switching is likely to yield a net benefit over staying, using a subtype- and state-matched baseline to control for natural win-rate recovery. ScoreFusion ranks candidate strategies by combining an adoptability signal with predicted transition quality (delta WR). We further introduce SwitchGap, an evaluation metric that measures a policy's discriminative quality without treating observed player choices as optimal ground truth. This property is particularly important because the most frequent switchers record the lowest win rates. The full pipeline achieves a SwitchGap of +10.4 percentage points at a recommendation rate of 5.4%, and loss-triggered switchers, despite being the lowest-performing group, benefit the most from subtype-conditioned guidance.

Generative Conversational Recommender System

Conversational recommender systems aim to provide personalized recommendations via natural language interactions. However, existing approaches either decouple recommendation from dialog generation or rely on retrieval-based pipelines, limiting the integration between recommendation and response generation and leading to suboptimal modeling of user intent. In this paper, we propose a fully generative conversational recommender system that unifies recommendation and dialog generation within a single autoregressive framework. Our approach represents items as discrete semantic IDs and integrates them directly into the generation process, enabling joint prediction of items and responses via next-token modeling. We further introduce a structured generation paradigm that factorizes conversational recommendation into a sequence of interdependent decisions, where the model first predicts the response intent and the recommendation target, and then generates the response conditioned on them. This design enables end-to-end optimization, enforces a more coherent dependency structure, and supports faithful item generation via constrained decoding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently improves recommendation performance, achieving gains of up to 29% on Recall@1 over strong baselines, while maintaining competitive dialog quality.

Diversed Model Discovery via Structured Table Discovery

Model cards describe model behavior through a mixture of textual descriptions and structured artifacts, including performance, configuration, and dataset tables. Existing model search systems rely predominantly on semantic similarity over text, which can produce homogeneous result sets and limit exploration of alternatives. We argue that model search is inherently comparative: users want models that are task-aligned yet differentiated in measurable ways. We hypothesize that this balance requires retrieval over condensed, high-quality evidence rather than verbose descriptions, and much of that evidence is concentrated in structured tables. We present StructuredSemanticSearch, a table-driven model search framework built on the ModelTables benchmark. Given a query, StructuredSemanticSearch combines a semantic baseline for task alignment with a structure-aware pipeline that discovers query-related model-card tables using table discovery operators such as unionability, joinability, and keyword search. Retrieved tables are mapped back to model cards under a controlled top-k budget, enabling fair comparison between text-based and table-based retrieval. Beyond retrieval, StructuredSemanticSearch adapts table integration to the model-table domain through orientation-aware integration, producing compact integrated views of tables from partially overlapping and sometimes transposed evidence tables. For evaluation, we introduce a nugget-based, auditable protocol that extracts compact evidence items from model cards, matches queries to condition- or intent-specific nuggets, and measures evidence coverage and diversity over retrieved model-card candidate sets. This protocol also provides a scalable path toward approximate, evidence-based labeling in dynamic model lakes. Experiments on 597 model-recommendation queries show improved nugget coverage for the structure-aware pipeline than semantic baseline

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

We document inverse scaling in LLMs on forecasting problems whose underlying time series exhibit superlinear growth and tail risk of regime change, a structure common in finance and epidemiology. On these tasks, more capable models produce worse distributional forecasts. The pattern appears on ForecastBench-Sim (FBSim), a contamination-free, simulated-world benchmark we release, in forecasting synthetic SIR epidemics with a matched linear control, and replicates in real-world datasets on COVID-19, measles, housing markets, and hyperinflation. A per-quantile decomposition shows the failure concentrates at the upper tail, which more capable models shift upward to track aggressive extrapolations of growth, while the lower tail stays put. A within-family study of Llama-3.1 shows that both model scale and post-training independently contribute to this effect. Domain knowledge does not reliably rescue calibration. This inverse scaling does not appear on single-threshold metrics common in LLM forecasting benchmarks, reversing the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on identical outputs. Single-threshold scoring at conventional cutoffs misses the upper-tail cost; tail-inclusive scoring reverses the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on the same outputs. We recommend that LLM forecasting evaluations use continuous (and unbounded) measures of accuracy alongside bounded binary threshold metrics.

The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor

In learning-augmented online algorithms, predictions are usually valued for what they say: a value estimate, a solution, or an algorithmic recommendation. This paper shows that predictions can also be valuable solely due to their arrival time. We study the fundamental secretary problem augmented with a stochastic precursor: a content-free signal that is guaranteed to arrive no later than the best item, but is otherwise stochastically timed. The signal does not carry any additional information; nevertheless, its timing alone changes the structure of optimal stopping. We characterize optimal policies in the random-order and adversarial-order models. In random order, a single uniformly timed precursor already gives success probability at least $\frac12$, improving on the classic $\frac1e$ benchmark. With increasingly late precursors, the success probability approaches $1$. In adversarial order, for which traditional models do not admit strong guarantees, sufficiently concentrated precursors recover constant success guarantees. Our results show that such novel forms of asynchronous temporal information are a distinct and powerful form of advice in online decision making and may also be effective for other problems.

Explainable AI for Data-Driven Design of High-Dimensional Predictive Studies

Predictive modelling is important for health data analysis and data-driven clinical decision-making. However, predictive studies are challenging to design optimally by hand when tens or even hundreds of features require selection, transformation, or interaction modelling. While complex machine learning models offer high performance, their "black-box" nature limits the clinical trust, transparency, and interpretability required for decision-making. We developed and evaluated an Exploratory AI Recommender that provides data-driven recommendations to improve predictive performance of existing interpretable statistical models. The developed framework uses flexible AI modelling to capture complex data patterns and explainable AI techniques to translate the patterns into three recommendation types: feature exclusion, non-linear terms, and feature interactions. We evaluated the framework by comparing predictive performance of a baseline (i.e., no interactions or non-linear terms) Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model against an augmented CPH incorporating recommendations suggested by our method. The primary analysis predicts the time to the first occurrence of a fall or related injury in 245,614 patients. Our method recommended excluding 23 features, including non-linear terms for two features, and including 221 suggested feature interactions. The C-index improved from 0.805 (95% CI 0.798-0.812) to 0.815 (95% CI 0.809-0.822), and so did calibration (intercept: -0.006 to 0.003; slope: 1.063 to 0.950). All recommendations were supported by existing literature. The method also proved effective on two additional public datasets, demonstrating wider applicability. The proposed Exploratory AI Recommender demonstrates the potential of explainable AI and data-driven study design to improve the process of developing, and the performance of high-dimensional transparent predictive models.

Three Costs of Amortizing Gaussian Process Inference with Neural Processes

Neural processes amortize Gaussian process inference, replacing the exact $O(n^3)$ posterior with a learned $O(n)$ map from context sets to predictive distributions. For a class of latent neural processes, we bound the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the GP and LNP predictives, decomposing it into three interpretable sources, namely label contamination as the neural process uses label values to estimate a quantity that is label-independent in the exact GP, an information bottleneck because the finite-dimensional representation cannot resolve the full context geometry, and amortization error from a single encoder network shared across all contexts. The bottleneck truncation term decays in the representation dimension $d$ as $O(e^{-cd^{2/d_x}})$ for squared-exponential kernels on $\mathbb{R}^{d_x}$ where $c > 0$ is a kernel-dependent constant and as $O(d^{-2ν/d_x})$ for Matérn-$ν$ kernels, directly linking architecture sizing to kernel smoothness and input dimension. The label contamination term is $O(1)$ in general, with only the observation-noise component decaying as $O(1/n)$, identifying a persistent cost of routing uncertainty estimation through a label-dependent representation. These results characterize the costs of amortization within the analyzed class and yield architectural recommendations to predict variance from context locations alone in the GP-amortization regime, and replace mean aggregation with second-order pooling to close the dominant amortization gap.

PEARL: Unbiased Percentile Estimation via Contrastive Learning for Industrial-Scale Livestream Recommendation

Recommender systems trained on user interaction data are susceptible to behavioral intensity imbalance--a systematic distortion arising from heterogeneous engagement patterns across users. This imbalance skews feedback signals such that observed interactions no longer faithfully reflect true preferences, causing models to disproportionately amplify signals from highly active users while underrepresenting others, which ultimately degrades recommendation quality and robustness at scale. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric contrastive percentile approximation framework, PEARL, that models relative preference signals instead of absolute engagement magnitudes. Building upon relative advantage debiasing, PEARL leverages real contrastive interaction samples to approximate percentile relationships directly, without relying on auxiliary distribution estimation models. We provide theoretical justification demonstrating that such pairwise comparisons yield unbiased estimates of percentile-based preference signals. For broader applicability, we introduce a prediction-based bootstrapping mechanism for percentile smoothing to handle sparse and discrete feedback, alongside a generalized value-weighted formulation and a co-training strategy to enhance both modeling flexibility and representation learning. Extensive offline experiments demonstrate that PEARL effectively mitigates behavioral bias and consistently improves recommendation performance across multiple ranking targets. Deployed in a production livestream platform with a combined user base of billions, online A/B testing confirms substantial real-world gains: +2.10% Watch Duration, +0.80% Consumption Amount, +1.49% Interaction Rate, and -6.91% Report Rate.

Component Influence-Driven Fastener Reduction for Robotic Disassemblability-Aware Design Simplification

To accelerate automated remanufacturing, robotic disassembly must be considered during the product design phase. However, designers currently lack quantitative feedback to identify which structural elements hinder robotic operations. To address this, this study proposes an analytical framework that provides actionable redesign guidance focused on fastener reduction, as fasteners are numerous and ubiquitous components found in almost all manufactured products. Using a Computer-Aided Design (CAD) model and its automatically generated Contact-Connection-Constraint (CCC) graph, the framework translates robotic disassembly sequence planning outcomes into component influence scores. These scores reflect how often a component causes structural constraint violations or evaluation objective deteriorations in the robotic disassembly sequence. To visually highlight structural hindrances, the framework projects these scores onto the CAD geometry as 3D heatmaps. The system then analytically simulates the removal of highly influential fasteners. It reports the expected reductions in structural constraints, tool changes, and robot travel distances, while preventing structurally unsafe modifications by evaluating geometric stability metrics. Experiments on seven household appliances demonstrate that the framework successfully targets redundant fasteners. Removing the recommended fasteners simplified the structural dependencies by eliminating between 8 and 132 structural constraints on the graph depending on each product's structural configuration. Furthermore, it improved robotic operational efficiency by eliminating unnecessary tool change operations and shortening travel distances by 165 to 1675 millimeters wherever structurally permissible.