Empowering Children to Create AI-Enabled Augmented Reality Experiences

Despite their potential to enhance children's learning experiences, AI-enabled AR technologies are predominantly used in ways that position children as consumers rather than creators. We introduce Capybara, an AR-based and AI-powered visual programming environment that empowers children to create, customize, and program 3D characters overlaid onto the physical world. Capybara enables children to create virtual characters and accessories using text-to-3D generative AI models, and to animate these characters through auto-rigging and body tracking. In addition, our system employs vision-based AI models to recognize physical objects, allowing children to program interactive behaviors between virtual characters and their physical surroundings. We demonstrate the expressiveness of Capybara through a set of novel AR experiences. We conducted user studies with 20 children in the United States and Argentina. Our findings suggest that Capybara can empower children to harness AI in authoring personalized and engaging AR experiences that seamlessly bridge the virtual and physical worlds.

Quantum Temporal Fusion Transformer

The Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), proposed by Lim et al. [\textit{International Journal of Forecasting}, 2021], is a state-of-the-art attention-based deep neural network architecture specifically designed for multi-horizon time series forecasting. It has demonstrated significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks. In this work, we propose a Quantum Temporal Fusion Transformer (QTFT), a quantum-enhanced hybrid quantum-classical architecture that extends the capabilities of the classical TFT framework. Our results demonstrate that QTFT is successfully trained on the forecasting datasets and is capable of accurately predicting future values. In particular, our experimental results display that in certain test cases, the model outperforms its classical counterpart in terms of both training and test loss, while in the remaining cases, it achieves comparable performance. A key advantage of our approach lies in its foundation on a variational quantum algorithm, enabling implementation on current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices without strict requirements on the number of qubits or circuit depth.

Forecasting Geopolitical Events with a Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer and Gaussian Process Hybrid: A Case Study in Middle Eastern and U.S. Conflict Dynamics

Forecasting geopolitical conflict from data sources like the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) is a critical challenge for national security. The inherent sparsity, burstiness, and overdispersion of such data cause standard deep learning models, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), to produce unreliable long-horizon predictions. We introduce STFT-VNNGP, a hybrid architecture that won the 2023 Algorithms for Threat Detection (ATD) competition by overcoming these limitations. Designed to bridge this gap, our model employs a two-stage process: first, a TFT captures complex temporal dynamics to generate multi-quantile forecasts. These quantiles then serve as informed inputs for a Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP), which performs principled spatiotemporal smoothing and uncertainty quantification. In a case study forecasting conflict dynamics in the Middle East and the U.S., STFT-VNNGP consistently outperforms a standalone TFT, showing a superior ability to predict the timing and magnitude of bursty event periods, particularly at long-range horizons. This work offers a robust framework for generating more reliable and actionable intelligence from challenging event data, with all code and workflows made publicly available to ensure reproducibility.

Efficacy of Temporal Fusion Transformers for Runoff Simulation

Combining attention with recurrence has shown to be valuable in sequence modeling, including hydrological predictions. Here, we explore the strength of Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) over Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in rainfall-runoff modeling. We train ten randomly initialized models, TFT and LSTM, for 531 CAMELS catchments in the US. We repeat the experiment with five subsets of the Caravan dataset, each representing catchments in the US, Australia, Brazil, Great Britain, and Chile. Then, the performance of the models, their variability regarding the catchment attributes, and the difference according to the datasets are assessed. Our findings show that TFT slightly outperforms LSTM, especially in simulating the midsection and peak of hydrographs. Furthermore, we show the ability of TFT to handle longer sequences and why it can be a better candidate for higher or larger catchments. Being an explainable AI technique, TFT identifies the key dynamic and static variables, providing valuable scientific insights. However, both TFT and LSTM exhibit a considerable drop in performance with the Caravan dataset, indicating possible data quality issues. Overall, the study highlights the potential of TFT in improving hydrological modeling and understanding.

WaveHiTS: Wavelet-Enhanced Hierarchical Time Series Modeling for Wind Direction Nowcasting in Eastern Inner Mongolia

Wind direction forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing wind energy production, but faces significant challenges due to the circular nature of directional data, error accumulation in multi-step forecasting, and complex meteorological interactions. This paper presents a novel model, WaveHiTS, which integrates wavelet transform with Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series to address these challenges. Our approach decomposes wind direction into U-V components, applies wavelet transform to capture multi-scale frequency patterns, and utilizes a hierarchical structure to model temporal dependencies at multiple scales, effectively mitigating error propagation. Experiments conducted on real-world meteorological data from Inner Mongolia, China demonstrate that WaveHiTS significantly outperforms deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU), transformer-based approaches (TFT, Informer, iTransformer), and hybrid models (EMD-LSTM). The proposed model achieves RMSE values of approximately 19.2{\deg}-19.4{\deg} compared to 56{\deg}-64{\deg} for deep learning recurrent models, maintaining consistent accuracy across all forecasting steps up to 60 minutes ahead. Moreover, WaveHiTS demonstrates superior robustness with vector correlation coefficients (VCC) of 0.985-0.987 and hit rates of 88.5%-90.1%, substantially outperforming baseline models. Ablation studies confirm that each component-wavelet transform, hierarchical structure, and U-V decomposition-contributes meaningfully to overall performance. These improvements in wind direction nowcasting have significant implications for enhancing wind turbine yaw control efficiency and grid integration of wind energy.

Comparative analysis and evaluation of ageing forecasting methods for semiconductor devices in online health monitoring

Semiconductor devices, especially MOSFETs (Metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor), are crucial in power electronics, but their reliability is affected by aging processes influenced by cycling and temperature. The primary aging mechanism in discrete semiconductors and power modules is the bond wire lift-off, caused by crack growth due to thermal fatigue. The process is empirically characterized by exponential growth and an abrupt end of life, making long-term aging forecasts challenging. This research presents a comprehensive comparative assessment of different forecasting methods for MOSFET failure forecasting applications. Classical tracking, statistical forecasting and Neural Network (NN) based forecasting models are implemented along with novel Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs). A comprehensive comparison is performed assessing their MOSFET ageing forecasting ability for different forecasting horizons. For short-term predictions, all algorithms result in acceptable results, with the best results produced by classical NN forecasting models at the expense of higher computations. For long-term forecasting, only the TFT is able to produce valid outcomes owing to the ability to integrate covariates from the expected future conditions. Additionally, TFT attention points identify key ageing turning points, which indicate new failure modes or accelerated ageing phases.

Comprehensive Modeling Approaches for Forecasting Bitcoin Transaction Fees: A Comparative Study

Transaction fee prediction in Bitcoin's ecosystem represents a crucial challenge affecting both user costs and miner revenue optimization. This study presents a systematic evaluation of six predictive models for forecasting Bitcoin transaction fees across a 24-hour horizon (144 blocks): SARIMAX, Prophet, Time2Vec, Time2Vec with Attention, a Hybrid model combining SARIMAX with Gradient Boosting, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). Our approach integrates comprehensive feature engineering spanning mempool metrics, network parameters, and historical fee patterns to capture the multifaceted dynamics of fee behavior. Through rigorous 5-fold cross-validation and independent testing, our analysis reveals that traditional statistical approaches outperform more complex deep learning architectures. The SARIMAX model achieves superior accuracy on the independent test set, while Prophet demonstrates strong performance during cross-validation. Notably, sophisticated deep learning models like Time2Vec and TFT show comparatively lower predictive power despite their architectural complexity. This performance disparity likely stems from the relatively constrained training dataset of 91 days, suggesting that deep learning models may achieve enhanced results with extended historical data. These findings offer significant practical implications for cryptocurrency stakeholders, providing empirically-validated guidance for fee-sensitive decision making while illuminating critical considerations in model selection based on data constraints. The study establishes a foundation for advanced fee prediction while highlighting the current advantages of traditional statistical methods in this domain.

Explore the Use of Time Series Foundation Model for Car-Following Behavior Analysis

Modeling car-following behavior is essential for traffic simulation, analyzing driving patterns, and understanding complex traffic flows with varying levels of autonomous vehicles. Traditional models like the Safe Distance Model and Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) require precise parameter calibration and often lack generality due to simplified assumptions about driver behavior. While machine learning and deep learning methods capture complex patterns, they require large labeled datasets. Foundation models provide a more efficient alternative. Pre-trained on vast, diverse time series datasets, they can be applied directly to various tasks without the need for extensive re-training. These models generalize well across domains, and with minimal fine-tuning, they can be adapted to specific tasks like car-following behavior prediction. In this paper, we apply Chronos, a state-of-the-art public time series foundation model, to analyze car-following behavior using the Open ACC dataset. Without fine-tuning, Chronos outperforms traditional models like IDM and Exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality (ETS), and achieves similar results to deep learning models such as DeepAR and TFT, with an RMSE of 0.60. After fine-tuning, Chronos reduces the error to an RMSE of 0.53, representing a 33.75% improvement over IDM and a 12-37% reduction compared to machine learning models like ETS and deep learning models including DeepAR, WaveNet, and TFT. This demonstrates the potential of foundation models to significantly advance transportation research, offering a scalable, adaptable, and highly accurate approach to predicting and simulating car-following behaviors.

Generalizing Trust: Weak-to-Strong Trustworthiness in Language Models

The rapid proliferation of generative AI, especially large language models, has led to their integration into a variety of applications. A key phenomenon known as weak-to-strong generalization - where a strong model trained on a weak model's outputs surpasses the weak model in task performance - has gained significant attention. Yet, whether critical trustworthiness properties such as robustness, fairness, and privacy can generalize similarly remains an open question. In this work, we study this question by examining if a stronger model can inherit trustworthiness properties when fine-tuned on a weaker model's outputs, a process we term weak-to-strong trustworthiness generalization. To address this, we introduce two foundational training strategies: 1) Weak Trustworthiness Finetuning (Weak TFT), which leverages trustworthiness regularization during the fine-tuning of the weak model, and 2) Weak and Weak-to-Strong Trustworthiness Finetuning (Weak+WTS TFT), which extends regularization to both weak and strong models. Our experimental evaluation on real-world datasets reveals that while some trustworthiness properties, such as fairness, adversarial, and OOD robustness, show significant improvement in transfer when both models were regularized, others like privacy do not exhibit signs of weak-to-strong trustworthiness. As the first study to explore trustworthiness generalization via weak-to-strong generalization, our work provides valuable insights into the potential and limitations of weak-to-strong generalization.

Adopting Trustworthy AI for Sleep Disorder Prediction: Deep Time Series Analysis with Temporal Attention Mechanism and Counterfactual Explanations

Sleep disorders have a major impact on both lifestyle and health. Effective sleep disorder prediction from lifestyle and physiological data can provide essential details for early intervention. This research utilizes three deep time series models and facilitates them with explainability approaches for sleep disorder prediction. Specifically, our approach adopts Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for time series data analysis, and Temporal Fusion Transformer model (TFT). Meanwhile, the temporal attention mechanism and counterfactual explanation with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach are employed to ensure dependable, accurate, and interpretable predictions. Finally, using a large dataset of sleep health measures, our evaluation demonstrates the effect of our method in predicting sleep disorders.