A Systematic Review of Machine Learning in Sports Betting: Techniques, Challenges, and Future Directions

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

FanCric : Multi-Agentic Framework for Crafting Fantasy 11 Cricket Teams

Cricket, with its intricate strategies and deep history, increasingly captivates a global audience. The Indian Premier League (IPL), epitomizing Twenty20 cricket, showcases talent in a format that lasts just a few hours as opposed to the longer forms of the game. Renowned for its fusion of technology and fan engagement, the IPL stands as the world's most popular cricket league. This study concentrates on Dream11, India's leading fantasy cricket league for IPL, where participants craft virtual teams based on real player performances to compete internationally. Building a winning fantasy team requires navigating various complex factors including player form and match conditions. Traditionally, this has been approached through operations research and machine learning. This research introduces the FanCric framework, an advanced multi-agent system leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) and a robust orchestration framework to enhance fantasy team selection in cricket. FanCric employs both structured and unstructured data to surpass traditional methods by incorporating sophisticated AI technologies. The analysis involved scrutinizing approximately 12.7 million unique entries from a Dream11 contest, evaluating FanCric's efficacy against the collective wisdom of crowds and a simpler Prompt Engineering approach. Ablation studies further assessed the impact of generating varying numbers of teams. The exploratory findings are promising, indicating that further investigation into FanCric's capabilities is warranted to fully realize its potential in enhancing strategic decision-making using LLMs in fantasy sports and business in general.

CAMP: A Context-Aware Cricket Players Performance Metric

Cricket is the second most popular sport after soccer in terms of viewership. However, the assessment of individual player performance, a fundamental task in team sports, is currently primarily based on aggregate performance statistics, including average runs and wickets taken. We propose Context-Aware Metric of player Performance, CAMP, to quantify individual players' contributions toward a cricket match outcome. CAMP employs data mining methods and enables effective data-driven decision-making for selection and drafting, coaching and training, team line-ups, and strategy development. CAMP incorporates the exact context of performance, such as opponents' strengths and specific circumstances of games, such as pressure situations. We empirically evaluate CAMP on data of limited-over cricket matches between 2001 and 2019. In every match, a committee of experts declares one player as the best player, called Man of the M}atch (MoM). The top two rated players by CAMP match with MoM in 83\% of the 961 games. Thus, the CAMP rating of the best player closely matches that of the domain experts. By this measure, CAMP significantly outperforms the current best-known players' contribution measure based on the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) method.

Impact of a Batter in ODI Cricket Implementing Regression Models from Match Commentary

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Prediction of the outcome of a Twenty-20 Cricket Match

Twenty20 cricket, sometimes written Twenty-20, and often abbreviated to T20, is a short form of cricket. In a Twenty20 game the two teams of 11 players have a single innings each, which is restricted to a maximum of 20 overs. This version of cricket is especially unpredictable and is one of the reasons it has gained popularity over recent times. However, in this paper we try four different approaches for predicting the results of T20 Cricket Matches. Specifically we take in to account: previous performance statistics of the players involved in the competing teams, ratings of players obtained from reputed cricket statistics websites, clustering the players' with similar performance statistics and using an ELO based approach to rate players. We compare the performances of each of these approaches by using logistic regression, support vector machines, bayes network, decision tree, random forest.

Data Science Approach to predict the winning Fantasy Cricket Team Dream 11 Fantasy Sports

The evolution of digital technology and the increasing popularity of sports inspired the innovators to take the experience of users with a proclivity towards sports to a whole new different level, by introducing Fantasy Sports Platforms FSPs. The application of Data Science and Analytics is Ubiquitous in the Modern World. Data Science and Analytics open doors to gain a deeper understanding and help in the decision making process. We firmly believed that we could adopt Data Science to predict the winning fantasy cricket team on the FSP, Dream 11. We built a predictive model that predicts the performance of players in a prospective game. We used a combination of Greedy and Knapsack Algorithms to prescribe the combination of 11 players to create a fantasy cricket team that has the most significant statistical odds of finishing as the strongest team thereby giving us a higher chance of winning the pot of bets on the Dream 11 FSP. We used PyCaret Python Library to help us understand and adopt the best Regressor Algorithm for our problem statement to make precise predictions. Further, we used Plotly Python Library to give us visual insights into the team, and players performances by accounting for the statistical, and subjective factors of a prospective game. The interactive plots help us to bolster the recommendations of our predictive model. You either win big, win small, or lose your bet based on the performance of the players selected for your fantasy team in the prospective game, and our model increases the probability of you winning big.

What Would Jiminy Cricket Do? Towards Agents That Behave Morally

When making everyday decisions, people are guided by their conscience, an internal sense of right and wrong. By contrast, artificial agents are currently not endowed with a moral sense. As a consequence, they may learn to behave immorally when trained on environments that ignore moral concerns, such as violent video games. With the advent of generally capable agents that pretrain on many environments, it will become necessary to mitigate inherited biases from environments that teach immoral behavior. To facilitate the development of agents that avoid causing wanton harm, we introduce Jiminy Cricket, an environment suite of 25 text-based adventure games with thousands of diverse, morally salient scenarios. By annotating every possible game state, the Jiminy Cricket environments robustly evaluate whether agents can act morally while maximizing reward. Using models with commonsense moral knowledge, we create an elementary artificial conscience that assesses and guides agents. In extensive experiments, we find that the artificial conscience approach can steer agents towards moral behavior without sacrificing performance.

Aligning to Social Norms and Values in Interactive Narratives

We focus on creating agents that act in alignment with socially beneficial norms and values in interactive narratives or text-based games -- environments wherein an agent perceives and interacts with a world through natural language. Such interactive agents are often trained via reinforcement learning to optimize task performance, even when such rewards may lead to agent behaviors that violate societal norms -- causing harm either to the agent itself or other entities in the environment. Social value alignment refers to creating agents whose behaviors conform to expected moral and social norms for a given context and group of people -- in our case, it means agents that behave in a manner that is less harmful and more beneficial for themselves and others. We build on the Jiminy Cricket benchmark (Hendrycks et al. 2021), a set of 25 annotated interactive narratives containing thousands of morally salient scenarios covering everything from theft and bodily harm to altruism. We introduce the GALAD (Game-value ALignment through Action Distillation) agent that uses the social commonsense knowledge present in specially trained language models to contextually restrict its action space to only those actions that are aligned with socially beneficial values. An experimental study shows that the GALAD agent makes decisions efficiently enough to improve state-of-the-art task performance by 4% while reducing the frequency of socially harmful behaviors by 25% compared to strong contemporary value alignment approaches.

Markov Cricket: Using Forward and Inverse Reinforcement Learning to Model, Predict And Optimize Batting Performance in One-Day International Cricket

In this paper, we model one-day international cricket games as Markov processes, applying forward and inverse Reinforcement Learning (RL) to develop three novel tools for the game. First, we apply Monte-Carlo learning to fit a nonlinear approximation of the value function for each state of the game using a score-based reward model. We show that, when used as a proxy for remaining scoring resources, this approach outperforms the state-of-the-art Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method used in professional matches by 3 to 10 fold. Next, we use inverse reinforcement learning, specifically a variant of guided-cost learning, to infer a linear model of rewards based on expert performances, assumed here to be play sequences of winning teams. From this model we explicitly determine the optimal policy for each state and find this agrees with common intuitions about the game. Finally, we use the inferred reward models to construct a game simulator that models the posterior distribution of final scores under different policies. We envisage our prediction and simulation techniques may provide a fairer alternative for estimating final scores in interrupted games, while the inferred reward model may provide useful insights for the professional game to optimize playing strategy. Further, we anticipate our method of applying RL to this game may have broader application to other sports with discrete states of play where teams take turns, such as baseball and rounders.

Analysing Long Short Term Memory Models for Cricket Match Outcome Prediction

As the technology advances, an ample amount of data is collected in sports with the help of advanced sensors. Sports Analytics is the study of this data to provide a constructive advantage to the team and its players. The game of international cricket is popular all across the globe. Recently, various machine learning techniques have been used to analyse the cricket match data and predict the match outcome as win or lose. Generally these models make use of the overall match level statistics such as teams, venue, average run rate, win margin, etc to predict the match results before the beginning of the match. However, very few works provide insights based on the ball-by-ball level statistics. Here we propose a novel Recurrent Neural Network model which can predict the win probability of a match at regular intervals given the ball-by-ball statistics. The Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Model takes as input the ball wise features as well as the match level details available from the training dataset. It gives a prediction of winning the match at any time stamp during the match. This level of insight will help the team to predict the probability of them winning the match after every ball and help them determine the critical in-game changes they should make in their game strategies.