How to rewrite the stars: Mapping your orchard over time through constellations of fruits

Following crop growth through the vegetative cycle allows farmers to predict fruit setting and yield in early stages, but it is a laborious and non-scalable task if performed by a human who has to manually measure fruit sizes with a caliper or dendrometers. In recent years, computer vision has been used to automate several tasks in precision agriculture, such as detecting and counting fruits, and estimating their size. However, the fundamental problem of matching the exact same fruits from one video, collected on a given date, to the fruits visible in another video, collected on a later date, which is needed to track fruits' growth through time, remains to be solved. Few attempts were made, but they either assume that the camera always starts from the same known position and that there are sufficiently distinct features to match, or they used other sources of data like GPS. Here we propose a new paradigm to tackle this problem, based on constellations of 3D centroids, and introduce a descriptor for very sparse 3D point clouds that can be used to match fruits across videos. Matching constellations instead of individual fruits is key to deal with non-rigidity, occlusions and challenging imagery with few distinct visual features to track. The results show that the proposed method can be successfully used to match fruits across videos and through time, and also to build an orchard map and later use it to locate the camera pose in 6DoF, thus providing a method for autonomous navigation of robots in the orchard and for selective fruit picking, for example.

AgriPINN: A Process-Informed Neural Network for Interpretable and Scalable Crop Biomass Prediction Under Water Stress

Accurate prediction of crop above-ground biomass (AGB) under water stress is critical for monitoring crop productivity, guiding irrigation, and supporting climate-resilient agriculture. Data-driven models scale well but often lack interpretability and degrade under distribution shift, whereas process-based crop models (e.g. DSSAT, APSIM, LINTUL5) require extensive calibration and are difficult to deploy over large spatial domains. To address these limitations, we propose AgriPINN, a process-informed neural network that integrates a biophysical crop-growth differential equation as a differentiable constraint within a deep learning backbone. This design encourages physiologically consistent biomass dynamics under water-stress conditions while preserving model scalability for spatially distributed AGB prediction. AgriPINN recovers latent physiological variables, including leaf area index (LAI), absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), radiation use efficiency (RUE), and water-stress factors, without requiring direct supervision. We pretrain AgriPINN on 60 years of historical data across 397 regions in Germany and fine-tune it on three years of field experiments under controlled water treatments. Results show that AgriPINN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep-learning baselines (ConvLSTM-ViT, SLTF, CNN-Transformer) and the process-based LINTUL5 model in terms of accuracy (RMSE reductions up to $43\%$) and computational efficiency. By combining the scalability of deep learning with the biophysical rigor of process-based modeling, AgriPINN provides a robust and interpretable framework for spatio-temporal AGB prediction, offering practical value for planning of irrigation infrastructure, yield forecasting, and climate-adaptation planning.

UniCrop: A Universal, Multi-Source Data Engineering Pipeline for Scalable Crop Yield Prediction

Accurate crop yield prediction relies on diverse data streams, including satellite, meteorological, soil, and topographic information. However, despite rapid advances in machine learning, existing approaches remain crop- or region-specific and require data engineering efforts. This limits scalability, reproducibility, and operational deployment. This study introduces UniCrop, a universal and reusable data pipeline designed to automate the acquisition, cleaning, harmonisation, and engineering of multi-source environmental data for crop yield prediction. For any given location, crop type, and temporal window, UniCrop automatically retrieves, harmonises, and engineers over 200 environmental variables (Sentinel-1/2, MODIS, ERA5-Land, NASA POWER, SoilGrids, and SRTM), reducing them to a compact, analysis-ready feature set utilising a structured feature reduction workflow with minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR). To validate, UniCrop was applied to a rice yield dataset comprising 557 field observations. Using only the selected 15 features, four baseline machine learning models (LightGBM, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, and Elastic Net) were trained. LightGBM achieved the best single-model performance (RMSE = 465.1 kg/ha, $R^2 = 0.6576$), while a constrained ensemble of all baselines further improved accuracy (RMSE = 463.2 kg/ha, $R^2 = 0.6604$). UniCrop contributes a scalable and transparent data-engineering framework that addresses the primary bottleneck in operational crop yield modelling: the preparation of consistent and harmonised multi-source data. By decoupling data specification from implementation and supporting any crop, region, and time frame through simple configuration updates, UniCrop provides a practical foundation for scalable agricultural analytics. The code and implementation documentation are shared in https://github.com/CoDIS-Lab/UniCrop.

Harvesting AlphaEarth: Benchmarking the Geospatial Foundation Model for Agricultural Downstream Tasks

Geospatial foundation models (GFMs) have emerged as a promising approach to overcoming the limitations in existing featurization methods. More recently, Google DeepMind has introduced AlphaEarth Foundation (AEF), a GFM pre-trained using multi-source EOs across continuous time. An annual and global embedding dataset is produced using AEF that is ready for analysis and modeling. The internal experiments show that AEF embeddings have outperformed operational models in 15 EO tasks without re-training. However, those experiments are mostly about land cover and land use classification. Applying AEF and other GFMs to agricultural monitoring require an in-depth evaluation in critical agricultural downstream tasks. There is also a lack of comprehensive comparison between the AEF-based models and traditional remote sensing (RS)-based models under different scenarios, which could offer valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners. This study addresses some of these gaps by evaluating AEF embeddings in three agricultural downstream tasks in the U.S., including crop yield prediction, tillage mapping, and cover crop mapping. Datasets are compiled from both public and private sources to comprehensively evaluate AEF embeddings across tasks at different scales and locations, and RS-based models are trained as comparison models. AEF-based models generally exhibit strong performance on all tasks and are competitive with purpose-built RS-based models in yield prediction and county-level tillage mapping when trained on local data. However, we also find several limitations in current AEF embeddings, such as limited spatial transferability compared to RS-based models, low interpretability, and limited time sensitivity. These limitations recommend caution when applying AEF embeddings in agriculture, where time sensitivity, generalizability, and interpretability is important.

NeuralCrop: Combining physics and machine learning for improved crop yield predictions

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) simulate daily crop growth by explicitly representing key biophysical processes and project end-of-season yield time series. They are a primary tool to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and assess associated risks for food security. Despite decades of development, state-of-the-art GGCMs still have substantial uncertainties in simulating complex biophysical processes due to limited process understanding. Recently, machine learning approaches trained on observational data have shown great potential in crop yield predictions. However, these models have not demonstrated improved performance over classical GGCMs and are not suitable for simulating crop yields under changing climate conditions due to problems in generalizing outside their training distributions. Here we introduce NeuralCrop, a hybrid GGCM that combines the strengths of an advanced process-based GGCM, resolving important processes explicitly, with data-driven machine learning components. The model is first trained to emulate a competitive GGCM before it is fine-tuned on observational data. We show that NeuralCrop outperforms state-of-the-art GGCMs across site-level and large-scale cropping regions. Across moisture conditions, NeuralCrop reproduces the interannual yield anomalies in European wheat regions and the US Corn Belt more accurately during the period from 2000 to 2019 with particularly strong improvements under drought extremes. When generalizing to conditions unseen during training, NeuralCrop continues to make robust projections, while pure machine learning models exhibit substantial performance degradation. Our results show that our hybrid crop modelling approach offers overall improved crop modeling and more reliable yield projections under climate change and intensifying extreme weather conditions.

LeafLife: An Explainable Deep Learning Framework with Robustness for Grape Leaf Disease Recognition

Plant disease diagnosis is essential to farmers' management choices because plant diseases frequently lower crop yield and product quality. For harvests to flourish and agricultural productivity to boost, grape leaf disease detection is important. The plant disease dataset contains grape leaf diseases total of 9,032 images of four classes, among them three classes are leaf diseases, and the other one is healthy leaves. After rigorous pre-processing dataset was split (70% training, 20% validation, 10% testing), and two pre-trained models were deployed: InceptionV3 and Xception. Xception shows a promising result of 96.23% accuracy, which is remarkable than InceptionV3. Adversarial Training is used for robustness, along with more transparency. Grad-CAM is integrated to confirm the leaf disease. Finally deployed a web application using Streamlit with a heatmap visualization and prediction with confidence level for robust grape leaf disease classification.

Generalization and Feature Attribution in Machine Learning Models for Crop Yield and Anomaly Prediction in Germany

This study examines the generalization performance and interpretability of machine learning (ML) models used for predicting crop yield and yield anomalies in Germany's NUTS-3 regions. Using a high-quality, long-term dataset, the study systematically compares the evaluation and temporal validation behavior of ensemble tree-based models (XGBoost, Random Forest) and deep learning approaches (LSTM, TCN). While all models perform well on spatially split, conventional test sets, their performance degrades substantially on temporally independent validation years, revealing persistent limitations in generalization. Notably, models with strong test-set accuracy, but weak temporal validation performance can still produce seemingly credible SHAP feature importance values. This exposes a critical vulnerability in post hoc explainability methods: interpretability may appear reliable even when the underlying model fails to generalize. These findings underscore the need for validation-aware interpretation of ML predictions in agricultural and environmental systems. Feature importance should not be accepted at face value unless models are explicitly shown to generalize to unseen temporal and spatial conditions. The study advocates for domain-aware validation, hybrid modeling strategies, and more rigorous scrutiny of explainability methods in data-driven agriculture. Ultimately, this work addresses a growing challenge in environmental data science: how can we evaluate generalization robustly enough to trust model explanations?

Agentic Explainable Artificial Intelligence (Agentic XAI) Approach To Explore Better Explanation

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) enables data-driven understanding of factor associations with response variables, yet communicating XAI outputs to laypersons remains challenging, hindering trust in AI-based predictions. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as promising tools for translating technical explanations into accessible narratives, yet the integration of agentic AI, where LLMs operate as autonomous agents through iterative refinement, with XAI remains unexplored. This study proposes an agentic XAI framework combining SHAP-based explainability with multimodal LLM-driven iterative refinement to generate progressively enhanced explanations. As a use case, we tested this framework as an agricultural recommendation system using rice yield data from 26 fields in Japan. The Agentic XAI initially provided a SHAP result and explored how to improve the explanation through additional analysis iteratively across 11 refinement rounds (Rounds 0-10). Explanations were evaluated by human experts (crop scientists) (n=12) and LLMs (n=14) against seven metrics: Specificity, Clarity, Conciseness, Practicality, Contextual Relevance, Cost Consideration, and Crop Science Credibility. Both evaluator groups confirmed that the framework successfully enhanced recommendation quality with an average score increase of 30-33% from Round 0, peaking at Rounds 3-4. However, excessive refinement showed a substantial drop in recommendation quality, indicating a bias-variance trade-off where early rounds lacked explanation depth (bias) while excessive iteration introduced verbosity and ungrounded abstraction (variance), as revealed by metric-specific analysis. These findings suggest that strategic early stopping (regularization) is needed for optimizing practical utility, challenging assumptions about monotonic improvement and providing evidence-based design principles for agentic XAI systems.

Machine Learning-Based Basil Yield Prediction in IoT-Enabled Indoor Vertical Hydroponic Farms

As agriculture faces increasing pressure from water scarcity, especially in regions like Tunisia, innovative, resource-efficient solutions are urgently needed. This work explores the integration of indoor vertical hydroponics with Machine Learning (ML) techniques to optimize basil yield while saving water. This research develops a prediction system that uses different ML models and assesses their performance. The models were systematically trained and tested using data collected from IoT sensors of various environmental parameters like CO2, light. The experimental setup features 21 basil crops and uses Raspberry Pi and Arduino. 10k data points were collected and used to train and evaluate three ML models: Linear Regression (LR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). The comparative analysis of the performance of each model revealed that, while LSTM showed high predictive capability and accuracy of 99%, its execution time was 10 times longer than LR and its RAM usage was about 3 times higher than DNN's when simulated on a standard CPU environment. Conversely, the DNN model had an accuracy rate of 98%. This proves an efficient balance between computational speed and prediction quality, which makes this model well-suited for real-life deployment. Moreover, LR excelled in fast processing of basic prediction with an execution time of 11 seconds. This makes the LR model more suitable for low-complexity or resource-limited applications. These performance trade-offs highlight the potential of DNN-based solutions for building responsive, high-accuracy decision-support systems tailored to agricultural environments, making it suitable for future edge-device deployment.

CYPRESS: Crop Yield Prediction via Regression on Prithvi's Encoder for Satellite Sensing

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for global food security and modern agricultural management. Traditional methods often lack the scalability and granularity required for precision farming. This paper introduces CYPRESS (Crop Yield Prediction via Regression on Prithvi's Encoder for Satellite Sensing), a deep learning model designed for high-resolution, intra-field canola yield prediction. CYPRESS leverages a pre-trained, large-scale geospatial foundation model (Prithvi-EO-2.0-600M) and adapts it for a continuous regression task, transforming multi-temporal satellite imagery into dense, pixel-level yield maps. Evaluated on a comprehensive dataset from the Canadian Prairies, CYPRESS demonstrates superior performance over existing deep learning-based yield prediction models, highlighting the effectiveness of fine-tuning foundation models for specialized agricultural applications. By providing a continuous, high-resolution output, CYPRESS offers a more actionable tool for precision agriculture than conventional classification or county-level aggregation methods. This work validates a novel approach that bridges the gap between large-scale Earth observation and on-farm decision-making, offering a scalable solution for detailed agricultural monitoring.