From Rows to Yields: How Foundation Models for Tabular Data Simplify Crop Yield Prediction

We present an application of a foundation model for small- to medium-sized tabular data (TabPFN), to sub-national yield forecasting task in South Africa. TabPFN has recently demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional machine learning (ML) models in various regression and classification tasks. We used the dekadal (10-days) time series of Earth Observation (EO; FAPAR and soil moisture) and gridded weather data (air temperature, precipitation and radiation) to forecast the yield of summer crops at the sub-national level. The crop yield data was available for 23 years and for up to 8 provinces. Covariate variables for TabPFN (i.e., EO and weather) were extracted by region and aggregated at a monthly scale. We benchmarked the results of the TabPFN against six ML models and three baseline models. Leave-one-year-out cross-validation experiment setting was used in order to ensure the assessment of the models capacity to forecast an unseen year. Results showed that TabPFN and ML models exhibit comparable accuracy, outperforming the baselines. Nonetheless, TabPFN demonstrated superior practical utility due to its significantly faster tuning time and reduced requirement for feature engineering. This renders TabPFN a more viable option for real-world operation yield forecasting applications, where efficiency and ease of implementation are paramount.

MT-CYP-Net: Multi-Task Network for Pixel-Level Crop Yield Prediction Under Very Few Samples

Accurate and fine-grained crop yield prediction plays a crucial role in advancing global agriculture. However, the accuracy of pixel-level yield estimation based on satellite remote sensing data has been constrained by the scarcity of ground truth data. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach called the Multi-Task Crop Yield Prediction Network (MT-CYP-Net). This framework introduces an effective multi-task feature-sharing strategy, where features extracted from a shared backbone network are simultaneously utilized by both crop yield prediction decoders and crop classification decoders with the ability to fuse information between them. This design allows MT-CYP-Net to be trained with extremely sparse crop yield point labels and crop type labels, while still generating detailed pixel-level crop yield maps. Concretely, we collected 1,859 yield point labels along with corresponding crop type labels and satellite images from eight farms in Heilongjiang Province, China, in 2023, covering soybean, maize, and rice crops, and constructed a sparse crop yield label dataset. MT-CYP-Net is compared with three classical machine learning and deep learning benchmark methods in this dataset. Experimental results not only indicate the superiority of MT-CYP-Net compared to previous methods on multiple types of crops but also demonstrate the potential of deep networks on precise pixel-level crop yield prediction, especially with limited data labels.

California Crop Yield Benchmark: Combining Satellite Image, Climate, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Data Layers for County-Level Yield Forecasting of Over 70 Crops

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

Crop recommendation with machine learning: leveraging environmental and economic factors for optimal crop selection

Agriculture constitutes a primary source of food production, economic growth and employment in India, but the sector is confronted with low farm productivity and yields aggravated by increased pressure on natural resources and adverse climate change variability. Efforts involving green revolution, land irrigations, improved seeds and organic farming have yielded suboptimal outcomes. The adoption of computational tools like crop recommendation systems offers a new way to provide insights and help farmers tackle low productivity. However, most agricultural recommendation systems in India focus narrowly on environmental factors and regions, limiting accurate predictions of high-yield, profitable crops. This study uses environmental and economic factors with 19 crops across 15 states to develop and evaluate Random Forest and SVM models using 10-fold Cross Validation, Time-series Split, and Lag Variables. The 10-fold cross validation showed high accuracy (RF: 99.96%, SVM: 94.71%) but raised overfitting concerns. Introducing temporal order, better reflecting real-world conditions, reduced performance (RF: 78.55%, SVM: 71.18%) in the Time-series Split.To further increase the model accuracy while maintaining the temporal order, the Lag Variables approach was employed, which resulted in improved performance (RF: 83.62%, SVM: 74.38%) compared to the 10-fold cross validation approach. Overall, the models in the Time-series Split and Lag Variable Approaches offer practical insights by handling temporal dependencies and enhancing its adaptability to changing agricultural conditions over time. Consequently, the study shows the Random Forest model developed based on the Lag Variables as the most preferred algorithm for optimal crop recommendation in the Indian context.

A Sensor Agnostic Domain Generalization Framework for Leveraging Geospatial Foundation Models: Enhancing Semantic Segmentation viaSynergistic Pseudo-Labeling and Generative Learning

Remote sensing enables a wide range of critical applications such as land cover and land use mapping, crop yield prediction, and environmental monitoring. Advances in satellite technology have expanded remote sensing datasets, yet high-performance segmentation models remain dependent on extensive labeled data, challenged by annotation scarcity and variability across sensors, illumination, and geography. Domain adaptation offers a promising solution to improve model generalization. This paper introduces a domain generalization approach to leveraging emerging geospatial foundation models by combining soft-alignment pseudo-labeling with source-to-target generative pre-training. We further provide new mathematical insights into MAE-based generative learning for domain-invariant feature learning. Experiments with hyperspectral and multispectral remote sensing datasets confirm our method's effectiveness in enhancing adaptability and segmentation.

A Secured Triad of IoT, Machine Learning, and Blockchain for Crop Forecasting in Agriculture

To improve crop forecasting and provide farmers with actionable data-driven insights, we propose a novel approach integrating IoT, machine learning, and blockchain technologies. Using IoT, real-time data from sensor networks continuously monitor environmental conditions and soil nutrient levels, significantly improving our understanding of crop growth dynamics. Our study demonstrates the exceptional accuracy of the Random Forest model, achieving a 99.45\% accuracy rate in predicting optimal crop types and yields, thereby offering precise crop projections and customized recommendations. To ensure the security and integrity of the sensor data used for these forecasts, we integrate the Ethereum blockchain, which provides a robust and secure platform. This ensures that the forecasted data remain tamper-proof and reliable. Stakeholders can access real-time and historical crop projections through an intuitive online interface, enhancing transparency and facilitating informed decision-making. By presenting multiple predicted crop scenarios, our system enables farmers to optimize production strategies effectively. This integrated approach promises significant advances in precision agriculture, making crop forecasting more accurate, secure, and user-friendly.

Machine Learning Models for Soil Parameter Prediction Based on Satellite, Weather, Clay and Yield Data

Efficient nutrient management and precise fertilization are essential for advancing modern agriculture, particularly in regions striving to optimize crop yields sustainably. The AgroLens project endeavors to address this challenge by develop ing Machine Learning (ML)-based methodologies to predict soil nutrient levels without reliance on laboratory tests. By leveraging state of the art techniques, the project lays a foundation for acionable insights to improve agricultural productivity in resource-constrained areas, such as Africa. The approach begins with the development of a robust European model using the LUCAS Soil dataset and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to estimate key soil properties, including phosphorus, potassium, nitrogen, and pH levels. This model is then enhanced by integrating supplementary features, such as weather data, harvest rates, and Clay AI-generated embeddings. This report details the methodological framework, data preprocessing strategies, and ML pipelines employed in this project. Advanced algorithms, including Random Forests, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Fully Connected Neural Networks (FCNN), were implemented and finetuned for precise nutrient prediction. Results showcase robust model performance, with root mean square error values meeting stringent accuracy thresholds. By establishing a reproducible and scalable pipeline for soil nutrient prediction, this research paves the way for transformative agricultural applications, including precision fertilization and improved resource allocation in underresourced regions like Africa.

Multi-modal Data Fusion and Deep Ensemble Learning for Accurate Crop Yield Prediction

This study introduces RicEns-Net, a novel Deep Ensemble model designed to predict crop yields by integrating diverse data sources through multimodal data fusion techniques. The research focuses specifically on the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), optical remote sensing data from Sentinel 1, 2, and 3 satellites, and meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall. The initial field data for the study were acquired through Ernst & Young's (EY) Open Science Challenge 2023. The primary objective is to enhance the precision of crop yield prediction by developing a machine-learning framework capable of handling complex environmental data. A comprehensive data engineering process was employed to select the most informative features from over 100 potential predictors, reducing the set to 15 features from 5 distinct modalities. This step mitigates the ``curse of dimensionality" and enhances model performance. The RicEns-Net architecture combines multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble framework, integrating the strengths of each technique to improve predictive accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that RicEns-Net achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 341 kg/Ha (roughly corresponds to 5-6\% of the lowest average yield in the region), significantly exceeding the performance of previous state-of-the-art models, including those developed during the EY challenge.

Integrating remote sensing data assimilation, deep learning and large language model for interactive wheat breeding yield prediction

Yield is one of the core goals of crop breeding. By predicting the potential yield of different breeding materials, breeders can screen these materials at various growth stages to select the best performing. Based on unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing technology, high-throughput crop phenotyping data in breeding areas is collected to provide data support for the breeding decisions of breeders. However, the accuracy of current yield predictions still requires improvement, and the usability and user-friendliness of yield forecasting tools remain suboptimal. To address these challenges, this study introduces a hybrid method and tool for crop yield prediction, designed to allow breeders to interactively and accurately predict wheat yield by chatting with a large language model (LLM). First, the newly designed data assimilation algorithm is used to assimilate the leaf area index into the WOFOST model. Then, selected outputs from the assimilation process, along with remote sensing inversion results, are used to drive the time-series temporal fusion transformer model for wheat yield prediction. Finally, based on this hybrid method and leveraging an LLM with retrieval augmented generation technology, we developed an interactive yield prediction Web tool that is user-friendly and supports sustainable data updates. This tool integrates multi-source data to assist breeding decision-making. This study aims to accelerate the identification of high-yield materials in the breeding process, enhance breeding efficiency, and enable more scientific and smart breeding decisions.

Precision Agriculture Revolution: Integrating Digital Twins and Advanced Crop Recommendation for Optimal Yield

With the help of a digital twin structure, Agriculture 4.0 technologies like weather APIs (Application programming interface), GPS (Global Positioning System) modules, and NPK (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium) soil sensors and machine learning recommendation models, we seek to revolutionize agricultural production through this concept. In addition to providing precise crop growth forecasts, the combination of real-time data on soil composition, meteorological dynamics, and geographic coordinates aims to support crop recommendation models and simulate predictive scenarios for improved water and pesticide management.