FUSE: FK-Steered Multi-Modal Flow Matching for Efficient Simulation-Based Posterior Estimation

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is critical for scientific discovery, with generative models offering a promising path toward efficient inference. However, existing methods struggle with effective multimodal modeling. They often rely on brute-force fusion strategies that ignore the structural disparities between parameters and observations, thus limiting estimation fidelity. In this work, we introduce FUSE (Feynman-Kac steered mUlti-modal flow matching for efficient Simulation-based posterior Estimation). Unlike prior work, FUSE employs a dual-track architecture that preserves the distinct features of multimodal inputs while facilitating dynamic interaction. Additionally, we propose an FK-steered sampling strategy that leverages intermediate observation likelihoods to guide the generative trajectories, effectively improving the sample quality during inference. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on standard SBI benchmarks, producing posteriors that closely match ground-truth MCMC. Furthermore, in a real-world exoplanet orbital estimation task, FUSE successfully resolves complex parameter degeneracies that challenge existing methods, highlighting its potential to accelerate complex scientific discoveries in astrophysics and beyond.

Rapid Parameter Estimation for Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals Using Machine Learning

Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) signals pose significant challenges in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy owing to their low-frequency nature and highly complex waveforms, which occupy a high-dimensional parameter space with numerous variables. Given their extended inspiral timescales and low signal-to-noise ratios, EMRI signals warrant prolonged observation periods. Parameter estimation becomes particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies, arising from multiple local maxima, as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function. These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis while employing traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods. To address these challenges, the present study applies machine learning to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals, leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ODE neural networks. Our approach demonstrates computational efficiency several orders of magnitude faster than the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, while preserving the unbiasedness of parameter estimation. We show that machine learning technology has the potential to efficiently handle the vast parameter space, involving up to seventeen parameters, associated with EMRI signals. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first instance of applying machine learning, specifically the Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), to EMRI signal analysis. Our findings highlight the promising potential of machine learning in EMRI waveform analysis, offering new perspectives for the advancement of space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.