InterveneBench: Benchmarking LLMs for Intervention Reasoning and Causal Study Design in Real Social Systems

Causal inference in social science relies on end-to-end, intervention-centered research-design reasoning grounded in real-world policy interventions, but current benchmarks fail to evaluate this capability of large language models (LLMs). We present InterveneBench, a benchmark designed to assess such reasoning in realistic social settings. Each instance in InterveneBench is derived from an empirical social science study and requires models to reason about policy interventions and identification assumptions without access to predefined causal graphs or structural equations. InterveneBench comprises 744 peer-reviewed studies across diverse policy domains. Experimental results show that state-of-the-art LLMs struggle under this setting. To address this limitation, we further propose a multi-agent framework, STRIDES. It achieves significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art reasoning models. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Sii-yuning/STRIDES.

Vision-Based Reasoning with Topology-Encoded Graphs for Anatomical Path Disambiguation in Robot-Assisted Endovascular Navigation

Robotic-assisted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constrained by the inherent limitations of 2D Digital Subtraction Angiography (DSA). Unlike physicians, who can directly manipulate guidewires and integrate tactile feedback with their prior anatomical knowledge, teleoperated robotic systems must rely solely on 2D projections. This mode of operation, simultaneously lacking spatial context and tactile sensation, may give rise to projection-induced ambiguities at vascular bifurcations. To address this challenge, we propose a two-stage framework (SCAR-UNet-GAT) for real-time robotic path planning. In the first stage, SCAR-UNet, a spatial-coordinate-attention-regularized U-Net, is employed for accurate coronary vessel segmentation. The integration of multi-level attention mechanisms enhances the delineation of thin, tortuous vessels and improves robustness against imaging noise. From the resulting binary masks, vessel centerlines and bifurcation points are extracted, and geometric descriptors (e.g., branch diameter, intersection angles) are fused with local DSA patches to construct node features. In the second stage, a Graph Attention Network (GAT) reasons over the vessel graph to identify anatomically consistent and clinically feasible trajectories, effectively distinguishing true bifurcations from projection-induced false crossings. On a clinical DSA dataset, SCAR-UNet achieved a Dice coefficient of 93.1%. For path disambiguation, the proposed GAT-based method attained a success rate of 95.0% and a target-arrival success rate of 90.0%, substantially outperforming conventional shortest-path planning (60.0% and 55.0%) and heuristic-based planning (75.0% and 70.0%). Validation on a robotic platform further confirmed the practical feasibility and robustness of the proposed framework.

Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling via Diffusion Posterior Sampling

Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile, current zero-shot methods suffer from physical inconsistencies and vanishing gradient issues under large scaling factors. We propose Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling (ZSSD), a zero-shot framework that performs statistical downscaling without paired data during training. ZSSD leverages a Physics-Consistent Climate Prior learned from reanalysis data, conditioned on geophysical boundaries and temporal information to enforce physical validity. Furthermore, to enable robust inference across varying GCMs, we introduce Unified Coordinate Guidance. This strategy addresses the vanishing gradient problem in vanilla DPS and ensures consistency with large-scale fields. Results show that ZSSD significantly outperforms existing zero-shot baselines in 99th percentile errors and successfully reconstructs complex weather events, such as tropical cyclones, across heterogeneous GCMs.