UniTS: Building a Unified Time Series Model

Foundation models, especially LLMs, are profoundly transforming deep learning. Instead of training many task-specific models, we can adapt a single pretrained model to many tasks via fewshot prompting or fine-tuning. However, current foundation models apply to sequence data but not to time series, which present unique challenges due to the inherent diverse and multidomain time series datasets, diverging task specifications across forecasting, classification and other types of tasks, and the apparent need for task-specialized models. We developed UNITS, a unified time series model that supports a universal task specification, accommodating classification, forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection tasks. This is achieved through a novel unified network backbone, which incorporates sequence and variable attention along with a dynamic linear operator and is trained as a unified model. Across 38 multi-domain datasets, UNITS demonstrates superior performance compared to task-specific models and repurposed natural language-based LLMs. UNITS exhibits remarkable zero-shot, few-shot, and prompt learning capabilities when evaluated on new data domains and tasks. The source code and datasets are available at https://github.com/mims-harvard/UniTS.

Quantified Task Misalignment to Inform PEFT: An Exploration of Domain Generalization and Catastrophic Forgetting in CLIP

Foundations models are presented as generalists that often perform well over a myriad of tasks. Fine-tuning these models, even on limited data, provides an additional boost in task-specific performance but often at the cost of their wider generalization, an effect termed catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, we analyze the relation between task difficulty in the CLIP model and the performance of several simple parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods through the lens of domain generalization and catastrophic forgetting. We provide evidence that the silhouette score of the zero-shot image and text embeddings is a better measure of task difficulty than the average cosine similarity of correct image/label embeddings, and discuss observable relationships between task difficulty, fine-tuning method, domain generalization, and catastrophic forgetting. Additionally, the averaged results across tasks and performance measures demonstrate that a simplified method that trains only a subset of attention weights, which we call A-CLIP, yields a balance between domain generalization and catastrophic forgetting.

A Data Centric Approach for Unsupervised Domain Generalization via Retrieval from Web Scale Multimodal Data

Domain generalization (DG) is an important problem that learns a model that can generalize to unseen test domains leveraging one or more source domains, under the assumption of shared label spaces. However, most DG methods assume access to abundant source data in the target label space, a requirement that proves overly stringent for numerous real-world applications, where acquiring the same label space as the target task is prohibitively expensive. For this setting, we tackle the multimodal version of the unsupervised domain generalization (UDG) problem, which uses a large task-agnostic unlabeled source dataset, such as LAION-2B during finetuning. Our framework does not explicitly assume any relationship between the source dataset and target task. Instead, it relies only on the premise that the source dataset can be efficiently searched in a joint vision-language space. For this multimodal UDG setting, we propose a novel method to build a small ($<$100K) subset of the source data in three simple steps: (1) diversified retrieval using label names as queries, (2) rank pseudo-labeling, and (3) clustering to find representative samples. To demonstrate the value of studying the multimodal UDG problem, we compare our results against state-of-the-art source-free DG and zero-shot (ZS) methods on their respective benchmarks and show up to 10% improvement in accuracy on 20 diverse target datasets. Additionally, our multi-stage dataset construction method achieves 3% improvement on average over nearest neighbors retrieval. Code is available: https://github.com/Chris210634/mudg

Image-Caption Encoding for Improving Zero-Shot Generalization

Recent advances in vision-language models have combined contrastive approaches with generative methods to achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) on downstream inference tasks like zero-shot image classification. However, a persistent issue of these models for image classification is their out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization capabilities. We first show that when an OOD data point is misclassified, the correct class can be typically found in the Top-K predicted classes. In order to steer the model prediction toward the correct class within the top predicted classes, we propose the Image-Caption Encoding (ICE) method, a straightforward approach that directly enforces consistency between the image-conditioned and caption-conditioned predictions at evaluation time only. Intuitively, we take advantage of unique properties of the generated captions to guide our local search for the correct class label within the Top-K predicted classes. We show that our method can be easily combined with other SOTA methods to enhance Top-1 OOD accuracies by 0.5% on average and up to 3% on challenging datasets. Our code: https://github.com/Chris210634/ice

Descriptor and Word Soups: Overcoming the Parameter Efficiency Accuracy Tradeoff for Out-of-Distribution Few-shot Learning

Over the past year, a large body of multimodal research has emerged around zero-shot evaluation using GPT descriptors. These studies boost the zero-shot accuracy of pretrained VL models with an ensemble of label-specific text generated by GPT. A recent study, WaffleCLIP, demonstrated that similar zero-shot accuracy can be achieved with an ensemble of random descriptors. However, both zero-shot methods are un-trainable and consequently sub-optimal when some few-shot out-of-distribution (OOD) training data is available. Inspired by these prior works, we present two more flexible methods called descriptor and word soups, which do not require an LLM at test time and can leverage training data to increase OOD target accuracy. Descriptor soup greedily selects a small set of textual descriptors using generic few-shot training data, then calculates robust class embeddings using the selected descriptors. Word soup greedily assembles a chain of words in a similar manner. Compared to existing few-shot soft prompt tuning methods, word soup requires fewer parameters by construction and less GPU memory, since it does not require backpropagation. Both soups outperform current published few-shot methods, even when combined with SoTA zero-shot methods, on cross-dataset and domain generalization benchmarks. Compared with SoTA prompt and descriptor ensembling methods, such as ProDA and WaffleCLIP, word soup achieves higher OOD accuracy with fewer ensemble members. Please checkout our code: github.com/Chris210634/word_soups

Robust Fine-Tuning of Vision-Language Models for Domain Generalization

Transfer learning enables the sharing of common knowledge among models for a variety of downstream tasks, but traditional methods suffer in limited training data settings and produce narrow models incapable of effectively generalizing under distribution shifts. Foundation models have recently demonstrated impressive zero-shot inference capabilities and robustness under distribution shifts. However, zero-shot evaluation for these models has been predominantly confined to benchmarks with simple distribution shifts, limiting our understanding of their effectiveness under the more realistic shifts found in practice. Moreover, common fine-tuning methods for these models have yet to be evaluated against vision models in few-shot scenarios where training data is limited. To address these gaps, we present a new recipe for few-shot fine-tuning of the popular vision-language foundation model CLIP and evaluate its performance on challenging benchmark datasets with realistic distribution shifts from the WILDS collection. Our experimentation demonstrates that, while zero-shot CLIP fails to match performance of trained vision models on more complex benchmarks, few-shot CLIP fine-tuning outperforms its vision-only counterparts in terms of in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy at all levels of training data availability. This provides a strong incentive for adoption of foundation models within few-shot learning applications operating with real-world data. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-ll/robust-vision-language-finetuning

Encoding Time-Series Explanations through Self-Supervised Model Behavior Consistency

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently uninterpretable nature of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on 8 synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

ERM++: An Improved Baseline for Domain Generalization

Multi-source Domain Generalization (DG) measures a classifier's ability to generalize to new distributions of data it was not trained on, given several training domains. While several multi-source DG methods have been proposed, they incur additional complexity during training by using domain labels. Recent work has shown that a well-tuned Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) training procedure, that is simply minimizing the empirical risk on the source domains, can outperform most existing DG methods. We identify several key candidate techniques to further improve ERM performance, such as better utilization of training data, model parameter selection, and weight-space regularization. We call the resulting method ERM++, and show it significantly improves the performance of DG on five multi-source datasets by over 5% compared to standard ERM, and beats state-of-the-art despite being less computationally expensive. Additionally, we demonstrate the efficacy of ERM++ on the WILDS-FMOW dataset, a challenging DG benchmark. We hope that ERM++ becomes a strong baseline for future DG research. Code is released at https://github.com/piotr-teterwak/erm_plusplus.

Domain Adaptation for Time Series Under Feature and Label Shifts

The transfer of models trained on labeled datasets in a source domain to unlabeled target domains is made possible by unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). However, when dealing with complex time series models, the transferability becomes challenging due to the dynamic temporal structure that varies between domains, resulting in feature shifts and gaps in the time and frequency representations. Furthermore, tasks in the source and target domains can have vastly different label distributions, making it difficult for UDA to mitigate label shifts and recognize labels that only exist in the target domain. We present RAINCOAT, the first model for both closed-set and universal DA on complex time series. RAINCOAT addresses feature and label shifts by considering both temporal and frequency features, aligning them across domains, and correcting for misalignments to facilitate the detection of private labels. Additionally,RAINCOAT improves transferability by identifying label shifts in target domains. Our experiments with 5 datasets and 13 state-of-the-art UDA methods demonstrate that RAINCOAT can achieve an improvement in performance of up to 16.33%, and can effectively handle both closed-set and universal adaptation.

Supervised Metric Learning for Retrieval via Contextual Similarity Optimization

Existing deep metric learning approaches fall into three general categories: contrastive learning, average precision (AP) maximization, and classification. We propose a novel alternative approach, \emph{contextual similarity optimization}, inspired by work in unsupervised metric learning. Contextual similarity is a discrete similarity measure based on relationships between neighborhood sets, and is widely used in the unsupervised setting as pseudo-supervision. Inspired by this success, we propose a framework which optimizes \emph{a combination of contextual and cosine similarities}. Contextual similarity calculation involves several non-differentiable operations, including the heaviside function and intersection of sets. We show how to circumvent non-differentiability to explicitly optimize contextual similarity, and we further incorporate appropriate similarity regularization to yield our novel metric learning loss. The resulting loss function achieves state-of-the-art Recall @ 1 accuracy on standard supervised image retrieval benchmarks when combined with the standard contrastive loss. Code is released here: \url{https://github.com/Chris210634/metric-learning-using-contextual-similarity}