DeepTIMe: Deep Time-Index Meta-Learning for Non-Stationary Time-Series Forecasting

Deep learning has been actively applied to time-series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new autoregressive model architectures. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index based models, such as being a continuous signal function over time leading to smooth representations, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index based models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index based models, they are inadequate for forecasting due to the lack of inductive biases, and the non-stationarity of time-series. In this paper, we propose DeepTIMe, a deep time-index based model trained via a meta-learning formulation which overcomes these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTIMe.

Continual Normalization: Rethinking Batch Normalization for Online Continual Learning

Existing continual learning methods use Batch Normalization (BN) to facilitate training and improve generalization across tasks. However, the non-i.i.d and non-stationary nature of continual learning data, especially in the online setting, amplify the discrepancy between training and testing in BN and hinder the performance of older tasks. In this work, we study the cross-task normalization effect of BN in online continual learning where BN normalizes the testing data using moments biased towards the current task, resulting in higher catastrophic forgetting. This limitation motivates us to propose a simple yet effective method that we call Continual Normalization (CN) to facilitate training similar to BN while mitigating its negative effect. Extensive experiments on different continual learning algorithms and online scenarios show that CN is a direct replacement for BN and can provide substantial performance improvements. Our implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/phquang/Continual-Normalization}.

BLIP: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training for Unified Vision-Language Understanding and Generation

Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP) has advanced the performance for many vision-language tasks. However, most existing pre-trained models only excel in either understanding-based tasks or generation-based tasks. Furthermore, performance improvement has been largely achieved by scaling up the dataset with noisy image-text pairs collected from the web, which is a suboptimal source of supervision. In this paper, we propose BLIP, a new VLP framework which transfers flexibly to both vision-language understanding and generation tasks. BLIP effectively utilizes the noisy web data by bootstrapping the captions, where a captioner generates synthetic captions and a filter removes the noisy ones. We achieve state-of-the-art results on a wide range of vision-language tasks, such as image-text retrieval (+2.7% in average recall@1), image captioning (+2.8% in CIDEr), and VQA (+1.6% in VQA score). BLIP also demonstrates strong generalization ability when directly transferred to video-language tasks in a zero-shot manner. Code, models, and datasets are released at https://github.com/salesforce/BLIP.

CoST: Contrastive Learning of Disentangled Seasonal-Trend Representations for Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning has been actively studied for time series forecasting, and the mainstream paradigm is based on the end-to-end training of neural network architectures, ranging from classical LSTM/RNNs to more recent TCNs and Transformers. Motivated by the recent success of representation learning in computer vision and natural language processing, we argue that a more promising paradigm for time series forecasting, is to first learn disentangled feature representations, followed by a simple regression fine-tuning step -- we justify such a paradigm from a causal perspective. Following this principle, we propose a new time series representation learning framework for time series forecasting named CoST, which applies contrastive learning methods to learn disentangled seasonal-trend representations. CoST comprises both time domain and frequency domain contrastive losses to learn discriminative trend and seasonal representations, respectively. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that CoST consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a considerable margin, achieving a 21.3\% improvement in MSE on multivariate benchmarks. It is also robust to various choices of backbone encoders, as well as downstream regressors.

ETSformer: Exponential Smoothing Transformers for Time-series Forecasting

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. The code and models of our implementations will be released.

DualNet: Continual Learning, Fast and Slow

According to Complementary Learning Systems (CLS) theory~\citep{mcclelland1995there} in neuroscience, humans do effective \emph{continual learning} through two complementary systems: a fast learning system centered on the hippocampus for rapid learning of the specifics and individual experiences, and a slow learning system located in the neocortex for the gradual acquisition of structured knowledge about the environment. Motivated by this theory, we propose a novel continual learning framework named "DualNet", which comprises a fast learning system for supervised learning of pattern-separated representation from specific tasks and a slow learning system for unsupervised representation learning of task-agnostic general representation via a Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) technique. The two fast and slow learning systems are complementary and work seamlessly in a holistic continual learning framework. Our extensive experiments on two challenging continual learning benchmarks of CORE50 and miniImageNet show that DualNet outperforms state-of-the-art continual learning methods by a large margin. We further conduct ablation studies of different SSL objectives to validate DualNet's efficacy, robustness, and scalability. Code will be made available upon acceptance.

Merlion: A Machine Learning Library for Time Series

We introduce Merlion, an open-source machine learning library for time series. It features a unified interface for many commonly used models and datasets for anomaly detection and forecasting on both univariate and multivariate time series, along with standard pre/post-processing layers. It has several modules to improve ease-of-use, including visualization, anomaly score calibration to improve interpetability, AutoML for hyperparameter tuning and model selection, and model ensembling. Merlion also provides a unique evaluation framework that simulates the live deployment and re-training of a model in production. This library aims to provide engineers and researchers a one-stop solution to rapidly develop models for their specific time series needs and benchmark them across multiple time series datasets. In this technical report, we highlight Merlion's architecture and major functionalities, and we report benchmark numbers across different baseline models and ensembles.

Align before Fuse: Vision and Language Representation Learning with Momentum Distillation

Large-scale vision and language representation learning has shown promising improvements on various vision-language tasks. Most existing methods employ a transformer-based multimodal encoder to jointly model visual tokens (region-based image features) and word tokens. Because the visual tokens and word tokens are unaligned, it is challenging for the multimodal encoder to learn image-text interactions. In this paper, we introduce a contrastive loss to ALign the image and text representations BEfore Fusing (ALBEF) them through cross-modal attention, which enables more grounded vision and language representation learning. Unlike most existing methods, our method does not require bounding box annotations nor high-resolution images. In order to improve learning from noisy web data, we propose momentum distillation, a self-training method which learns from pseudo-targets produced by a momentum model. We provide a theoretical analysis of ALBEF from a mutual information maximization perspective, showing that different training tasks can be interpreted as different ways to generate views for an image-text pair. ALBEF achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple downstream vision-language tasks. On image-text retrieval, ALBEF outperforms methods that are pre-trained on orders of magnitude larger datasets. On VQA and NLVR$^2$, ALBEF achieves absolute improvements of 2.37% and 3.84% compared to the state-of-the-art, while enjoying faster inference speed. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/salesforce/ALBEF/.

A Theory-Driven Self-Labeling Refinement Method for Contrastive Representation Learning

For an image query, unsupervised contrastive learning labels crops of the same image as positives, and other image crops as negatives. Although intuitive, such a native label assignment strategy cannot reveal the underlying semantic similarity between a query and its positives and negatives, and impairs performance, since some negatives are semantically similar to the query or even share the same semantic class as the query. In this work, we first prove that for contrastive learning, inaccurate label assignment heavily impairs its generalization for semantic instance discrimination, while accurate labels benefit its generalization. Inspired by this theory, we propose a novel self-labeling refinement approach for contrastive learning. It improves the label quality via two complementary modules: (i) self-labeling refinery (SLR) to generate accurate labels and (ii) momentum mixup (MM) to enhance similarity between query and its positive. SLR uses a positive of a query to estimate semantic similarity between a query and its positive and negatives, and combines estimated similarity with vanilla label assignment in contrastive learning to iteratively generate more accurate and informative soft labels. We theoretically show that our SLR can exactly recover the true semantic labels of label-corrupted data, and supervises networks to achieve zero prediction error on classification tasks. MM randomly combines queries and positives to increase semantic similarity between the generated virtual queries and their positives so as to improves label accuracy. Experimental results on CIFAR10, ImageNet, VOC and COCO show the effectiveness of our method. PyTorch code and model will be released online.