A Framework to Assess the Persuasion Risks Large Language Model Chatbots Pose to Democratic Societies

In recent years, significant concern has emerged regarding the potential threat that Large Language Models (LLMs) pose to democratic societies through their persuasive capabilities. We expand upon existing research by conducting two survey experiments and a real-world simulation exercise to determine whether it is more cost effective to persuade a large number of voters using LLM chatbots compared to standard political campaign practice, taking into account both the "receive" and "accept" steps in the persuasion process (Zaller 1992). These experiments improve upon previous work by assessing extended interactions between humans and LLMs (instead of using single-shot interactions) and by assessing both short- and long-run persuasive effects (rather than simply asking users to rate the persuasiveness of LLM-produced content). In two survey experiments (N = 10,417) across three distinct political domains, we find that while LLMs are about as persuasive as actual campaign ads once voters are exposed to them, political persuasion in the real-world depends on both exposure to a persuasive message and its impact conditional on exposure. Through simulations based on real-world parameters, we estimate that LLM-based persuasion costs between \$48-\$74 per persuaded voter compared to \$100 for traditional campaign methods, when accounting for the costs of exposure. However, it is currently much easier to scale traditional campaign persuasion methods than LLM-based persuasion. While LLMs do not currently appear to have substantially greater potential for large-scale political persuasion than existing non-LLM methods, this may change as LLM capabilities continue to improve and it becomes easier to scalably encourage exposure to persuasive LLMs.

Estimating the age-conditioned average treatment effects curves: An application for assessing load-management strategies in the NBA

In the realm of competitive sports, understanding the performance dynamics of athletes, represented by the age curve (showing progression, peak, and decline), is vital. Our research introduces a novel framework for quantifying age-specific treatment effects, enhancing the granularity of performance trajectory analysis. Firstly, we propose a methodology for estimating the age curve using game-level data, diverging from traditional season-level data approaches, and tackling its inherent complexities with a meta-learner framework that leverages advanced machine learning models. This approach uncovers intricate non-linear patterns missed by existing methods. Secondly, our framework enables the identification of causal effects, allowing for a detailed examination of age curves under various conditions. By defining the Age-Conditioned Treatment Effect (ACTE), we facilitate the exploration of causal relationships regarding treatment impacts at specific ages. Finally, applying this methodology to study the effects of rest days on performance metrics, particularly across different ages, offers valuable insights into load management strategies' effectiveness. Our findings underscore the importance of tailored rest periods, highlighting their positive impact on athlete performance and suggesting a reevaluation of current management practices for optimizing athlete performance.

A supervised generative optimization approach for tabular data

Synthetic data generation has emerged as a crucial topic for financial institutions, driven by multiple factors, such as privacy protection and data augmentation. Many algorithms have been proposed for synthetic data generation but reaching the consensus on which method we should use for the specific data sets and use cases remains challenging. Moreover, the majority of existing approaches are ``unsupervised'' in the sense that they do not take into account the downstream task. To address these issues, this work presents a novel synthetic data generation framework. The framework integrates a supervised component tailored to the specific downstream task and employs a meta-learning approach to learn the optimal mixture distribution of existing synthetic distributions.