Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

Privacy-Preserving Federated Fraud Detection in Payment Transactions with NVIDIA FLARE

Fraud-related financial losses continue to rise, while regulatory, privacy, and data-sovereignty constraints increasingly limit the feasibility of centralized fraud detection systems. Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for enabling collaborative model training across institutions without sharing raw transaction data. Yet, its practical effectiveness under realistic, non-IID financial data distributions remains insufficiently validated. In this work, we present a multi-institution, industry-oriented proof-of-concept study evaluating federated anomaly detection for payment transactions using the NVIDIA FLARE framework. We simulate a realistic federation of heterogeneous financial institutions, each observing distinct fraud typologies and operating under strict data isolation. Using a deep neural network trained via federated averaging (FedAvg), we demonstrate that federated models achieve a mean F1-score of 0.903 - substantially outperforming locally trained models (0.643) and closely approaching centralized training performance (0.925), while preserving full data sovereignty. We further analyze convergence behavior, showing that strong performance is achieved within 10 federated communication rounds, highlighting the operational viability of FL in latency- and cost-sensitive financial environments. To support deployment in regulated settings, we evaluate model interpretability using Shapley-based feature attribution and confirm that federated models rely on semantically coherent, domain-relevant decision signals. Finally, we incorporate sample-level differential privacy via DP-SGD and demonstrate favorable privacy-utility trade-offs...