On the Connection Between MPNN and Graph Transformer

Graph Transformer (GT) recently has emerged as a new paradigm of graph learning algorithms, outperforming the previously popular Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) on multiple benchmarks. Previous work (Kim et al., 2022) shows that with proper position embedding, GT can approximate MPNN arbitrarily well, implying that GT is at least as powerful as MPNN. In this paper, we study the inverse connection and show that MPNN with virtual node (VN), a commonly used heuristic with little theoretical understanding, is powerful enough to arbitrarily approximate the self-attention layer of GT. In particular, we first show that if we consider one type of linear transformer, the so-called Performer/Linear Transformer (Choromanski et al., 2020; Katharopoulos et al., 2020), then MPNN + VN with only O(1) depth and O(1) width can approximate a self-attention layer in Performer/Linear Transformer. Next, via a connection between MPNN + VN and DeepSets, we prove the MPNN + VN with O(n^d) width and O(1) depth can approximate the self-attention layer arbitrarily well, where d is the input feature dimension. Lastly, under some assumptions, we provide an explicit construction of MPNN + VN with O(1) width and O(n) depth approximating the self-attention layer in GT arbitrarily well. On the empirical side, we demonstrate that 1) MPNN + VN is a surprisingly strong baseline, outperforming GT on the recently proposed Long Range Graph Benchmark (LRGB) dataset, 2) our MPNN + VN improves over early implementation on a wide range of OGB datasets and 3) MPNN + VN outperforms Linear Transformer and MPNN on the climate modeling task.

Generative Adversarial Symmetry Discovery

Despite the success of equivariant neural networks in scientific applications, they require knowing the symmetry group a priori. However, it may be difficult to know the right symmetry to use as an inductive bias in practice and enforcing the wrong symmetry could hurt the performance. In this paper, we propose a framework, LieGAN, to automatically discover equivariances from a dataset using a paradigm akin to generative adversarial training. Specifically, a generator learns a group of transformations applied to the data, which preserves the original distribution and fools the discriminator. LieGAN represents symmetry as interpretable Lie algebra basis and can discover various symmetries such as rotation group $\mathrm{SO}(n)$ and restricted Lorentz group $\mathrm{SO}(1,3)^+$ in trajectory prediction and top quark tagging tasks. The learned symmetry can also be readily used in several existing equivariant neural networks to improve accuracy and generalization in prediction.

Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Symmetries, flat minima, and the conserved quantities of gradient flow

Empirical studies of the loss landscape of deep networks have revealed that many local minima are connected through low-loss valleys. Ensemble models sampling different parts of a low-loss valley have reached SOTA performance. Yet, little is known about the theoretical origin of such valleys. We present a general framework for finding continuous symmetries in the parameter space, which carve out low-loss valleys. Importantly, we introduce a novel set of nonlinear, data-dependent symmetries for neural networks. These symmetries can transform a trained model such that it performs similarly on new samples. We then show that conserved quantities associated with linear symmetries can be used to define coordinates along low-loss valleys. The conserved quantities help reveal that using common initialization methods, gradient flow only explores a small part of the global minimum. By relating conserved quantities to convergence rate and sharpness of the minimum, we provide insights on how initialization impacts convergence and generalizability. We also find the nonlinear action to be viable for ensemble building to improve robustness under certain adversarial attacks.

Koopman Neural Forecaster for Time Series with Temporal Distribution Shifts

Temporal distributional shifts, with underlying dynamics changing over time, frequently occur in real-world time series, and pose a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks (DNNs). In this paper, we propose a novel deep sequence model based on the Koopman theory for time series forecasting: Koopman Neural Forecaster (KNF) that leverages DNNs to learn the linear Koopman space and the coefficients of chosen measurement functions. KNF imposes appropriate inductive biases for improved robustness against distributional shifts, employing both a global operator to learn shared characteristics, and a local operator to capture changing dynamics, as well as a specially-designed feedback loop to continuously update the learnt operators over time for rapidly varying behaviors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Koopman theory is applied to real-world chaotic time series without known governing laws. We demonstrate that KNF achieves the superior performance compared to the alternatives, on multiple time series datasets that are shown to suffer from distribution shifts.

Predicting the Future of AI with AI: High-quality link prediction in an exponentially growing knowledge network

A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is artificial intelligence (AI) research, where the number of scientific publications has been growing exponentially over the last years, making it challenging for human researchers to keep track of the progress. Here, we use AI techniques to predict the future research directions of AI itself. We develop a new graph-based benchmark based on real-world data -- the Science4Cast benchmark, which aims to predict the future state of an evolving semantic network of AI. For that, we use more than 100,000 research papers and build up a knowledge network with more than 64,000 concept nodes. We then present ten diverse methods to tackle this task, ranging from pure statistical to pure learning methods. Surprisingly, the most powerful methods use a carefully curated set of network features, rather than an end-to-end AI approach. It indicates a great potential that can be unleashed for purely ML approaches without human knowledge. Ultimately, better predictions of new future research directions will be a crucial component of more advanced research suggestion tools.

Data Augmentation vs. Equivariant Networks: A Theory of Generalization on Dynamics Forecasting

Exploiting symmetry in dynamical systems is a powerful way to improve the generalization of deep learning. The model learns to be invariant to transformation and hence is more robust to distribution shift. Data augmentation and equivariant networks are two major approaches to injecting symmetry into learning. However, their exact role in improving generalization is not well understood. In this work, we derive the generalization bounds for data augmentation and equivariant networks, characterizing their effect on learning in a unified framework. Unlike most prior theories for the i.i.d. setting, we focus on non-stationary dynamics forecasting with complex temporal dependencies.

LIMO: Latent Inceptionism for Targeted Molecule Generation

Generation of drug-like molecules with high binding affinity to target proteins remains a difficult and resource-intensive task in drug discovery. Existing approaches primarily employ reinforcement learning, Markov sampling, or deep generative models guided by Gaussian processes, which can be prohibitively slow when generating molecules with high binding affinity calculated by computationally-expensive physics-based methods. We present Latent Inceptionism on Molecules (LIMO), which significantly accelerates molecule generation with an inceptionism-like technique. LIMO employs a variational autoencoder-generated latent space and property prediction by two neural networks in sequence to enable faster gradient-based reverse-optimization of molecular properties. Comprehensive experiments show that LIMO performs competitively on benchmark tasks and markedly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques on the novel task of generating drug-like compounds with high binding affinity, reaching nanomolar range against two protein targets. We corroborate these docking-based results with more accurate molecular dynamics-based calculations of absolute binding free energy and show that one of our generated drug-like compounds has a predicted $K_D$ (a measure of binding affinity) of $6 \cdot 10^{-14}$ M against the human estrogen receptor, well beyond the affinities of typical early-stage drug candidates and most FDA-approved drugs to their respective targets. Code is available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/LIMO.

Multi-fidelity Hierarchical Neural Processes

Science and engineering fields use computer simulation extensively. These simulations are often run at multiple levels of sophistication to balance accuracy and efficiency. Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling reduces the computational cost by fusing different simulation outputs. Cheap data generated from low-fidelity simulators can be combined with limited high-quality data generated by an expensive high-fidelity simulator. Existing methods based on Gaussian processes rely on strong assumptions of the kernel functions and can hardly scale to high-dimensional settings. We propose Multi-fidelity Hierarchical Neural Processes (MF-HNP), a unified neural latent variable model for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling. MF-HNP inherits the flexibility and scalability of Neural Processes. The latent variables transform the correlations among different fidelity levels from observations to latent space. The predictions across fidelities are conditionally independent given the latent states. It helps alleviate the error propagation issue in existing methods. MF-HNP is flexible enough to handle non-nested high dimensional data at different fidelity levels with varying input and output dimensions. We evaluate MF-HNP on epidemiology and climate modeling tasks, achieving competitive performance in terms of accuracy and uncertainty estimation. In contrast to deep Gaussian Processes with only low-dimensional (< 10) tasks, our method shows great promise for speeding up high-dimensional complex simulations (over 7000 for epidemiology modeling and 45000 for climate modeling).