Evaluating Language Model Agency through Negotiations

Companies, organizations, and governments increasingly exploit Language Models' (LM) remarkable capability to display agent-like behavior. As LMs are adopted to perform tasks with growing autonomy, there exists an urgent need for reliable and scalable evaluation benchmarks. Current, predominantly static LM benchmarks are ill-suited to evaluate such dynamic applications. Thus, we propose jointly evaluating LM performance and alignment through the lenses of negotiation games. We argue that this common task better reflects real-world deployment conditions while offering insights into LMs' decision-making processes. Crucially, negotiation games allow us to study multi-turn, and cross-model interactions, modulate complexity, and side-step accidental data leakage in evaluation. We report results for six publicly accessible LMs from several major providers on a variety of negotiation games, evaluating both self-play and cross-play performance. Noteworthy findings include: (i) open-source models are currently unable to complete these tasks; (ii) cooperative bargaining games prove challenging; and (iii) the most powerful models do not always "win".

A Glitch in the Matrix? Locating and Detecting Language Model Grounding with Fakepedia

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in storing and recalling factual knowledge, but also in adapting to novel in-context information. Yet, the mechanisms underlying their in-context grounding remain unknown, especially in situations where in-context information contradicts factual knowledge embedded in the parameters. This is critical for retrieval-augmented generation methods, which enrich the context with up-to-date information, hoping that grounding can rectify the outdated parametric knowledge. In this study, we introduce Fakepedia, a counterfactual dataset designed to evaluate grounding abilities when the parametric knowledge clashes with the in-context information. We benchmark various LLMs with Fakepedia and discover that GPT-4-turbo has a strong preference for its parametric knowledge. Mistral-7B, on the contrary, is the model that most robustly chooses the grounded answer. Then, we conduct causal mediation analysis on LLM components when answering Fakepedia queries. We demonstrate that inspection of the computational graph alone can predict LLM grounding with 92.8% accuracy, especially because few MLPs in the Transformer can predict non-grounded behavior. Our results, together with existing findings about factual recall mechanisms, provide a coherent narrative of how grounding and factual recall mechanisms interact within LLMs.

SoK: Memorization in General-Purpose Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are advancing at a remarkable pace, with myriad applications under development. Unlike most earlier machine learning models, they are no longer built for one specific application but are designed to excel in a wide range of tasks. A major part of this success is due to their huge training datasets and the unprecedented number of model parameters, which allow them to memorize large amounts of information contained in the training data. This memorization goes beyond mere language, and encompasses information only present in a few documents. This is often desirable since it is necessary for performing tasks such as question answering, and therefore an important part of learning, but also brings a whole array of issues, from privacy and security to copyright and beyond. LLMs can memorize short secrets in the training data, but can also memorize concepts like facts or writing styles that can be expressed in text in many different ways. We propose a taxonomy for memorization in LLMs that covers verbatim text, facts, ideas and algorithms, writing styles, distributional properties, and alignment goals. We describe the implications of each type of memorization - both positive and negative - for model performance, privacy, security and confidentiality, copyright, and auditing, and ways to detect and prevent memorization. We further highlight the challenges that arise from the predominant way of defining memorization with respect to model behavior instead of model weights, due to LLM-specific phenomena such as reasoning capabilities or differences between decoding algorithms. Throughout the paper, we describe potential risks and opportunities arising from memorization in LLMs that we hope will motivate new research directions.

Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work

We show that the use of large language models (LLMs) is prevalent among crowd workers, and that targeted mitigation strategies can significantly reduce, but not eliminate, LLM use. On a text summarization task where workers were not directed in any way regarding their LLM use, the estimated prevalence of LLM use was around 30%, but was reduced by about half by asking workers to not use LLMs and by raising the cost of using them, e.g., by disabling copy-pasting. Secondary analyses give further insight into LLM use and its prevention: LLM use yields high-quality but homogeneous responses, which may harm research concerned with human (rather than model) behavior and degrade future models trained with crowdsourced data. At the same time, preventing LLM use may be at odds with obtaining high-quality responses; e.g., when requesting workers not to use LLMs, summaries contained fewer keywords carrying essential information. Our estimates will likely change as LLMs increase in popularity or capabilities, and as norms around their usage change. Yet, understanding the co-evolution of LLM-based tools and users is key to maintaining the validity of research done using crowdsourcing, and we provide a critical baseline before widespread adoption ensues.

Stranger Danger! Cross-Community Interactions with Fringe Users Increase the Growth of Fringe Communities on Reddit

Fringe communities promoting conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies have thrived on mainstream platforms, raising questions about the mechanisms driving their growth. Here, we hypothesize and study a possible mechanism: new members may be recruited through fringe-interactions: the exchange of comments between members and non-members of fringe communities. We apply text-based causal inference techniques to study the impact of fringe-interactions on the growth of three prominent fringe communities on Reddit: r/Incel, r/GenderCritical, and r/The_Donald. Our results indicate that fringe-interactions attract new members to fringe communities. Users who receive these interactions are up to 4.2 percentage points (pp) more likely to join fringe communities than similar, matched users who do not. This effect is influenced by 1) the characteristics of communities where the interaction happens (e.g., left vs. right-leaning communities) and 2) the language used in the interactions. Interactions using toxic language have a 5pp higher chance of attracting newcomers to fringe communities than non-toxic interactions. We find no effect when repeating this analysis by replacing fringe (r/Incel, r/GenderCritical, and r/The_Donald) with non-fringe communities (r/climatechange, r/NBA, r/leagueoflegends), suggesting this growth mechanism is specific to fringe communities. Overall, our findings suggest that curtailing fringe-interactions may reduce the growth of fringe communities on mainstream platforms.

In-class Data Analysis Replications: Teaching Students while Testing Science

Science is facing a reproducibility crisis. Previous work has proposed incorporating data analysis replications into classrooms as a potential solution. However, despite the potential benefits, it is unclear whether this approach is feasible, and if so, what the involved stakeholders-students, educators, and scientists-should expect from it. Can students perform a data analysis replication over the course of a class? What are the costs and benefits for educators? And how can this solution help benchmark and improve the state of science? In the present study, we incorporated data analysis replications in the project component of the Applied Data Analysis course (CS-401) taught at EPFL (N=354 students). Here we report pre-registered findings based on surveys administered throughout the course. First, we demonstrate that students can replicate previously published scientific papers, most of them qualitatively and some exactly. We find discrepancies between what students expect of data analysis replications and what they experience by doing them along with changes in expectations about reproducibility, which together serve as evidence of attitude shifts to foster students' critical thinking. Second, we provide information for educators about how much overhead is needed to incorporate replications into the classroom and identify concerns that replications bring as compared to more traditional assignments. Third, we identify tangible benefits of the in-class data analysis replications for scientific communities, such as a collection of replication reports and insights about replication barriers in scientific work that should be avoided going forward. Overall, we demonstrate that incorporating replication tasks into a large data science class can increase the reproducibility of scientific work as a by-product of data science instruction, thus benefiting both science and students.

Critical Evaluation of Artificial Intelligence as Digital Twin of Pathologist for Prostate Cancer Pathology

Prostate cancer pathology plays a crucial role in clinical management but is time-consuming. Artificial intelligence (AI) shows promise in detecting prostate cancer and grading patterns. We tested an AI-based digital twin of a pathologist, vPatho, on 2,603 histology images of prostate tissue stained with hematoxylin and eosin. We analyzed various factors influencing tumor-grade disagreement between vPatho and six human pathologists. Our results demonstrated that vPatho achieved comparable performance in prostate cancer detection and tumor volume estimation, as reported in the literature. Concordance levels between vPatho and human pathologists were examined. Notably, moderate to substantial agreement was observed in identifying complementary histological features such as ductal, cribriform, nerve, blood vessels, and lymph cell infiltrations. However, concordance in tumor grading showed a decline when applied to prostatectomy specimens (kappa = 0.44) compared to biopsy cores (kappa = 0.70). Adjusting the decision threshold for the secondary Gleason pattern from 5% to 10% improved the concordance level between pathologists and vPatho for tumor grading on prostatectomy specimens (kappa from 0.44 to 0.64). Potential causes of grade discordance included the vertical extent of tumors toward the prostate boundary and the proportions of slides with prostate cancer. Gleason pattern 4 was particularly associated with discordance. Notably, grade discordance with vPatho was not specific to any of the six pathologists involved in routine clinical grading. In conclusion, our study highlights the potential utility of AI in developing a digital twin of a pathologist. This approach can help uncover limitations in AI adoption and the current grading system for prostate cancer pathology.

Fly-Swat or Cannon? Cost-Effective Language Model Choice via Meta-Modeling

Generative language models (LMs) have become omnipresent across data science. For a wide variety of tasks, inputs can be phrased as natural language prompts for an LM, from whose output the solution can then be extracted. LM performance has consistently been increasing with model size - but so has the monetary cost of querying the ever larger models. Importantly, however, not all inputs are equally hard: some require larger LMs for obtaining a satisfactory solution, whereas for others smaller LMs suffice. Based on this fact, we design a framework for Cost-Effective Language Model Choice (CELMOC). Given a set of inputs and a set of candidate LMs, CELMOC judiciously assigns each input to an LM predicted to do well on the input according to a so-called meta-model, aiming to achieve high overall performance at low cost. The cost-performance trade-off can be flexibly tuned by the user. Options include, among others, maximizing total expected performance (or the number of processed inputs) while staying within a given cost budget, or minimizing total cost while processing all inputs. We evaluate CELMOC on 14 datasets covering five natural language tasks, using four candidate LMs of vastly different size and cost. With CELMOC, we match the performance of the largest available LM while achieving a cost reduction of 63%. Via our publicly available library, researchers as well as practitioners can thus save large amounts of money without sacrificing performance.

Flows: Building Blocks of Reasoning and Collaborating AI

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have produced highly capable and controllable systems. This creates unprecedented opportunities for structured reasoning as well as collaboration among multiple AI systems and humans. To fully realize this potential, it is essential to develop a principled way of designing and studying such structured interactions. For this purpose, we introduce the conceptual framework of Flows: a systematic approach to modeling complex interactions. Flows are self-contained building blocks of computation, with an isolated state, communicating through a standardized message-based interface. This modular design allows Flows to be recursively composed into arbitrarily nested interactions, with a substantial reduction of complexity. Crucially, any interaction can be implemented using this framework, including prior work on AI--AI and human--AI interactions, prompt engineering schemes, and tool augmentation. We demonstrate the potential of Flows on the task of competitive coding, a challenging task on which even GPT-4 struggles. Our results suggest that structured reasoning and collaboration substantially improve generalization, with AI-only Flows adding +$21$ and human--AI Flows adding +$54$ absolute points in terms of solve rate. To support rapid and rigorous research, we introduce the aiFlows library. The library comes with a repository of Flows that can be easily used, extended, and composed into novel, more complex Flows. The aiFlows library is available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/aiflows. Data and Flows for reproducing our experiments are available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/cc_flows.

Artificial Artificial Artificial Intelligence: Crowd Workers Widely Use Large Language Models for Text Production Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) are remarkable data annotators. They can be used to generate high-fidelity supervised training data, as well as survey and experimental data. With the widespread adoption of LLMs, human gold--standard annotations are key to understanding the capabilities of LLMs and the validity of their results. However, crowdsourcing, an important, inexpensive way to obtain human annotations, may itself be impacted by LLMs, as crowd workers have financial incentives to use LLMs to increase their productivity and income. To investigate this concern, we conducted a case study on the prevalence of LLM usage by crowd workers. We reran an abstract summarization task from the literature on Amazon Mechanical Turk and, through a combination of keystroke detection and synthetic text classification, estimate that 33-46% of crowd workers used LLMs when completing the task. Although generalization to other, less LLM-friendly tasks is unclear, our results call for platforms, researchers, and crowd workers to find new ways to ensure that human data remain human, perhaps using the methodology proposed here as a stepping stone. Code/data: https://github.com/epfl-dlab/GPTurk