Explainability of AI Uncertainty: Application to Multiple Sclerosis Lesion Segmentation on MRI

Trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) is essential in healthcare, particularly for high-stakes tasks like medical image segmentation. Explainable AI and uncertainty quantification significantly enhance AI reliability by addressing key attributes such as robustness, usability, and explainability. Despite extensive technical advances in uncertainty quantification for medical imaging, understanding the clinical informativeness and interpretability of uncertainty remains limited. This study introduces a novel framework to explain the potential sources of predictive uncertainty, specifically in cortical lesion segmentation in multiple sclerosis using deep ensembles. The proposed analysis shifts the focus from the uncertainty-error relationship towards relevant medical and engineering factors. Our findings reveal that instance-wise uncertainty is strongly related to lesion size, shape, and cortical involvement. Expert rater feedback confirms that similar factors impede annotator confidence. Evaluations conducted on two datasets (206 patients, almost 2000 lesions) under both in-domain and distribution-shift conditions highlight the utility of the framework in different scenarios.

Cortical lesions, central vein sign, and paramagnetic rim lesions in multiple sclerosis: emerging machine learning techniques and future avenues

The current multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnostic criteria lack specificity, and this may lead to misdiagnosis, which remains an issue in present-day clinical practice. In addition, conventional biomarkers only moderately correlate with MS disease progression. Recently, advanced MS lesional imaging biomarkers such as cortical lesions (CL), the central vein sign (CVS), and paramagnetic rim lesions (PRL), visible in specialized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences, have shown higher specificity in differential diagnosis. Moreover, studies have shown that CL and PRL are potential prognostic biomarkers, the former correlating with cognitive impairments and the latter with early disability progression. As machine learning-based methods have achieved extraordinary performance in the assessment of conventional imaging biomarkers, such as white matter lesion segmentation, several automated or semi-automated methods have been proposed for CL, CVS, and PRL as well. In the present review, we first introduce these advanced MS imaging biomarkers and their imaging methods. Subsequently, we describe the corresponding machine learning-based methods that were used to tackle these clinical questions, putting them into context with respect to the challenges they are still facing, including non-standardized MRI protocols, limited datasets, and moderate inter-rater variability. We conclude by presenting the current limitations that prevent their broader deployment and suggesting future research directions.