Mirror Online Conformal Prediction with Intermittent Feedback

Online conformal prediction enables the runtime calibration of a pre-trained artificial intelligence model using feedback on its performance. Calibration is achieved through set predictions that are updated via online rules so as to ensure long-term coverage guarantees. While recent research has demonstrated the benefits of incorporating prior knowledge into the calibration process, this has come at the cost of replacing coverage guarantees with less tangible regret guarantees based on the quantile loss. This work introduces intermittent mirror online conformal prediction (IM-OCP), a novel runtime calibration framework that integrates prior knowledge, while maintaining long-term coverage and achieving sub-linear regret. IM-OCP features closed-form updates with minimal memory complexity, and is designed to operate under potentially intermittent feedback.

Online Conformal Compression for Zero-Delay Communication with Distortion Guarantees

We investigate a lossy source compression problem in which both the encoder and decoder are equipped with a pre-trained sequence predictor. We propose an online lossy compression scheme that, under a 0-1 loss distortion function, ensures a deterministic, per-sequence upper bound on the distortion (outage) level for any time instant. The outage guarantees apply irrespective of any assumption on the distribution of the sequences to be encoded or on the quality of the predictor at the encoder and decoder. The proposed method, referred to as online conformal compression (OCC), is built upon online conformal prediction--a novel method for constructing confidence intervals for arbitrary predictors. Numerical results show that OCC achieves a compression rate comparable to that of an idealized scheme in which the encoder, with hindsight, selects the optimal subset of symbols to describe to the decoder, while satisfying the overall outage constraint.

Context-Aware Doubly-Robust Semi-Supervised Learning

The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in next-generation communication systems is challenged by the heterogeneity of traffic and network conditions, which call for the use of highly contextual, site-specific, data. A promising solution is to rely not only on real-world data, but also on synthetic pseudo-data generated by a network digital twin (NDT). However, the effectiveness of this approach hinges on the accuracy of the NDT, which can vary widely across different contexts. To address this problem, this paper introduces context-aware doubly-robust (CDR) learning, a novel semi-supervised scheme that adapts its reliance on the pseudo-data to the different levels of fidelity of the NDT across contexts. CDR is evaluated on the task of downlink beamforming, showing superior performance compared to previous state-of-the-art semi-supervised approaches.

Ensuring Reliability via Hyperparameter Selection: Review and Advances

Hyperparameter selection is a critical step in the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) models, particularly in the current era of foundational, pre-trained, models. By framing hyperparameter selection as a multiple hypothesis testing problem, recent research has shown that it is possible to provide statistical guarantees on population risk measures attained by the selected hyperparameter. This paper reviews the Learn-Then-Test (LTT) framework, which formalizes this approach, and explores several extensions tailored to engineering-relevant scenarios. These extensions encompass different risk measures and statistical guarantees, multi-objective optimization, the incorporation of prior knowledge and dependency structures into the hyperparameter selection process, as well as adaptivity. The paper also includes illustrative applications for communication systems.

Calibrating Wireless AI via Meta-Learned Context-Dependent Conformal Prediction

Modern software-defined networks, such as Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) systems, rely on artificial intelligence (AI)-powered applications running on controllers interfaced with the radio access network. To ensure that these AI applications operate reliably at runtime, they must be properly calibrated before deployment. A promising and theoretically grounded approach to calibration is conformal prediction (CP), which enhances any AI model by transforming it into a provably reliable set predictor that provides error bars for estimates and decisions. CP requires calibration data that matches the distribution of the environment encountered during runtime. However, in practical scenarios, network controllers often have access only to data collected under different contexts -- such as varying traffic patterns and network conditions -- leading to a mismatch between the calibration and runtime distributions. This paper introduces a novel methodology to address this calibration-test distribution shift. The approach leverages meta-learning to develop a zero-shot estimator of distribution shifts, relying solely on contextual information. The proposed method, called meta-learned context-dependent weighted conformal prediction (ML-WCP), enables effective calibration of AI applications without requiring data from the current context. Additionally, it can incorporate data from multiple contexts to further enhance calibration reliability.

Distributed Conformal Prediction via Message Passing

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing distribution-free statistical coverage guarantees for prediction sets by leveraging held-out datasets. In this work, we address a decentralized setting where each device has limited calibration data and can communicate only with its neighbors over an arbitrary graph topology. We propose two message-passing-based approaches for achieving reliable inference via CP: quantile-based distributed conformal prediction (Q-DCP) and histogram-based distributed conformal prediction (H-DCP). Q-DCP employs distributed quantile regression enhanced with tailored smoothing and regularization terms to accelerate convergence, while H-DCP uses a consensus-based histogram estimation approach. Through extensive experiments, we investigate the trade-offs between hyperparameter tuning requirements, communication overhead, coverage guarantees, and prediction set sizes across different network topologies.

Distilling Calibration via Conformalized Credal Inference

Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) models on edge devices involves a delicate balance between meeting stringent complexity constraints, such as limited memory and energy resources, and ensuring reliable performance in sensitive decision-making tasks. One way to enhance reliability is through uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference. This approach, however, typically necessitates maintaining and running multiple models in an ensemble, which may exceed the computational limits of edge devices. This paper introduces a low-complexity methodology to address this challenge by distilling calibration information from a more complex model. In an offline phase, predictive probabilities generated by a high-complexity cloud-based model are leveraged to determine a threshold based on the typical divergence between the cloud and edge models. At run time, this threshold is used to construct credal sets -- ranges of predictive probabilities that are guaranteed, with a user-selected confidence level, to include the predictions of the cloud model. The credal sets are obtained through thresholding of a divergence measure in the simplex of predictive probabilities. Experiments on visual and language tasks demonstrate that the proposed approach, termed Conformalized Distillation for Credal Inference (CD-CI), significantly improves calibration performance compared to low-complexity Bayesian methods, such as Laplace approximation, making it a practical and efficient solution for edge AI deployments.

Robust Bayesian Optimization via Localized Online Conformal Prediction

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential approach for optimizing black-box objective functions using zeroth-order noisy observations. In BO, Gaussian processes (GPs) are employed as probabilistic surrogate models to estimate the objective function based on past observations, guiding the selection of future queries to maximize utility. However, the performance of BO heavily relies on the quality of these probabilistic estimates, which can deteriorate significantly under model misspecification. To address this issue, we introduce localized online conformal prediction-based Bayesian optimization (LOCBO), a BO algorithm that calibrates the GP model through localized online conformal prediction (CP). LOCBO corrects the GP likelihood based on predictive sets produced by LOCBO, and the corrected GP likelihood is then denoised to obtain a calibrated posterior distribution on the objective function. The likelihood calibration step leverages an input-dependent calibration threshold to tailor coverage guarantees to different regions of the input space. Under minimal noise assumptions, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for LOCBO's iterates that hold for the unobserved objective function. These theoretical findings are validated through experiments on synthetic and real-world optimization tasks, demonstrating that LOCBO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art BO algorithms in the presence of model misspecification.

NCAirFL: CSI-Free Over-the-Air Federated Learning Based on Non-Coherent Detection

Over-the-air federated learning (FL), i.e., AirFL, leverages computing primitively over multiple access channels. A long-standing challenge in AirFL is to achieve coherent signal alignment without relying on expensive channel estimation and feedback. This paper proposes NCAirFL, a CSI-free AirFL scheme based on unbiased non-coherent detection at the edge server. By exploiting binary dithering and a long-term memory based error-compensation mechanism, NCAirFL achieves a convergence rate of order $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ in terms of the average square norm of the gradient for general non-convex and smooth objectives, where $T$ is the number of communication rounds. Experiments demonstrate the competitive performance of NCAirFL compared to vanilla FL with ideal communications and to coherent transmission-based benchmarks.

Neuromorphic Wireless Split Computing with Multi-Level Spikes

Inspired by biological processes, neuromorphic computing utilizes spiking neural networks (SNNs) to perform inference tasks, offering significant efficiency gains for workloads involving sequential data. Recent advances in hardware and software have demonstrated that embedding a few bits of payload in each spike exchanged between the spiking neurons can further enhance inference accuracy. In a split computing architecture, where the SNN is divided across two separate devices, the device storing the first layers must share information about the spikes generated by the local output neurons with the other device. Consequently, the advantages of multi-level spikes must be balanced against the challenges of transmitting additional bits between the two devices. This paper addresses these challenges by investigating a wireless neuromorphic split computing architecture employing multi-level SNNs. For this system, we present the design of digital and analog modulation schemes optimized for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) radio interface. Simulation and experimental results using software-defined radios provide insights into the performance gains of multi-level SNN models and the optimal payload size as a function of the quality of the connection between a transmitter and receiver.