Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guarantees

Selecting artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as large language models (LLMs), from multiple candidates requires accurate performance estimation. This is ideally achieved through empirical evaluations involving abundant real-world data. However, such evaluations are costly and impractical at scale. To address this challenge, autoevaluation methods leverage synthetic data produced by automated evaluators, such as LLMs-as-judges, reducing variance but potentially introducing bias. Recent approaches have employed semi-supervised prediction-powered inference (\texttt{PPI}) to correct for the bias of autoevaluators. However, the use of autoevaluators may lead in practice to a degradation in sample efficiency compared to conventional methods using only real-world data. In this paper, we propose \texttt{R-AutoEval+}, a novel framework that provides finite-sample reliability guarantees on the model evaluation, while also ensuring an enhanced (or at least no worse) sample efficiency compared to conventional methods. The key innovation of \texttt{R-AutoEval+} is an adaptive construction of the model evaluation variable, which dynamically tunes its reliance on synthetic data, reverting to conventional methods when the autoevaluator is insufficiently accurate. Experiments on the use of LLMs-as-judges for the optimization of quantization settings for the weights of an LLM, and for prompt design in LLMs confirm the reliability and efficiency of \texttt{R-AutoEval+}.

Turbo-ICL: In-Context Learning-Based Turbo Equalization

This paper introduces a novel in-context learning (ICL) framework, inspired by large language models (LLMs), for soft-input soft-output channel equalization in coded multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. The proposed approach learns to infer posterior symbol distributions directly from a prompt of pilot signals and decoder feedback. A key innovation is the use of prompt augmentation to incorporate extrinsic information from the decoder output as additional context, enabling the ICL model to refine its symbol estimates iteratively across turbo decoding iterations. Two model variants, based on Transformer and state-space architectures, are developed and evaluated. Extensive simulations demonstrate that, when traditional linear assumptions break down, e.g., in the presence of low-resolution quantization, ICL equalizers consistently outperform conventional model-based baselines, even when the latter are provided with perfect channel state information. Results also highlight the advantage of Transformer-based models under limited training diversity, as well as the efficiency of state-space models in resource-constrained scenarios.

Conformal Calibration: Ensuring the Reliability of Black-Box AI in Wireless Systems

AI is poised to revolutionize telecommunication networks by boosting efficiency, automation, and decision-making. However, the black-box nature of most AI models introduces substantial risk, possibly deterring adoption by network operators. These risks are not addressed by the current prevailing deployment strategy, which typically follows a best-effort train-and-deploy paradigm. This paper reviews conformal calibration, a general framework that moves beyond the state of the art by adopting computationally lightweight, advanced statistical tools that offer formal reliability guarantees without requiring further training or fine-tuning. Conformal calibration encompasses pre-deployment calibration via uncertainty quantification or hyperparameter selection; online monitoring to detect and mitigate failures in real time; and counterfactual post-deployment performance analysis to address "what if" diagnostic questions after deployment. By weaving conformal calibration into the AI model lifecycle, network operators can establish confidence in black-box AI models as a dependable enabling technology for wireless systems.

Online Conformal Probabilistic Numerics via Adaptive Edge-Cloud Offloading

Consider an edge computing setting in which a user submits queries for the solution of a linear system to an edge processor, which is subject to time-varying computing availability. The edge processor applies a probabilistic linear solver (PLS) so as to be able to respond to the user's query within the allotted time and computing budget. Feedback to the user is in the form of an uncertainty set. Due to model misspecification, the uncertainty set obtained via a direct application of PLS does not come with coverage guarantees with respect to the true solution of the linear system. This work introduces a new method to calibrate the uncertainty sets produced by PLS with the aim of guaranteeing long-term coverage requirements. The proposed method, referred to as online conformal prediction-PLS (OCP-PLS), assumes sporadic feedback from cloud to edge. This enables the online calibration of uncertainty thresholds via online conformal prediction (OCP), an online optimization method previously studied in the context of prediction models. The validity of OCP-PLS is verified via experiments that bring insights into trade-offs between coverage, prediction set size, and cloud usage.

Mirror Online Conformal Prediction with Intermittent Feedback

Online conformal prediction enables the runtime calibration of a pre-trained artificial intelligence model using feedback on its performance. Calibration is achieved through set predictions that are updated via online rules so as to ensure long-term coverage guarantees. While recent research has demonstrated the benefits of incorporating prior knowledge into the calibration process, this has come at the cost of replacing coverage guarantees with less tangible regret guarantees based on the quantile loss. This work introduces intermittent mirror online conformal prediction (IM-OCP), a novel runtime calibration framework that integrates prior knowledge, while maintaining long-term coverage and achieving sub-linear regret. IM-OCP features closed-form updates with minimal memory complexity, and is designed to operate under potentially intermittent feedback.

Online Conformal Compression for Zero-Delay Communication with Distortion Guarantees

We investigate a lossy source compression problem in which both the encoder and decoder are equipped with a pre-trained sequence predictor. We propose an online lossy compression scheme that, under a 0-1 loss distortion function, ensures a deterministic, per-sequence upper bound on the distortion (outage) level for any time instant. The outage guarantees apply irrespective of any assumption on the distribution of the sequences to be encoded or on the quality of the predictor at the encoder and decoder. The proposed method, referred to as online conformal compression (OCC), is built upon online conformal prediction--a novel method for constructing confidence intervals for arbitrary predictors. Numerical results show that OCC achieves a compression rate comparable to that of an idealized scheme in which the encoder, with hindsight, selects the optimal subset of symbols to describe to the decoder, while satisfying the overall outage constraint.

Robust Bayesian Optimization via Localized Online Conformal Prediction

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential approach for optimizing black-box objective functions using zeroth-order noisy observations. In BO, Gaussian processes (GPs) are employed as probabilistic surrogate models to estimate the objective function based on past observations, guiding the selection of future queries to maximize utility. However, the performance of BO heavily relies on the quality of these probabilistic estimates, which can deteriorate significantly under model misspecification. To address this issue, we introduce localized online conformal prediction-based Bayesian optimization (LOCBO), a BO algorithm that calibrates the GP model through localized online conformal prediction (CP). LOCBO corrects the GP likelihood based on predictive sets produced by LOCBO, and the corrected GP likelihood is then denoised to obtain a calibrated posterior distribution on the objective function. The likelihood calibration step leverages an input-dependent calibration threshold to tailor coverage guarantees to different regions of the input space. Under minimal noise assumptions, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for LOCBO's iterates that hold for the unobserved objective function. These theoretical findings are validated through experiments on synthetic and real-world optimization tasks, demonstrating that LOCBO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art BO algorithms in the presence of model misspecification.

In-Context Learned Equalization in Cell-Free Massive MIMO via State-Space Models

Sequence models have demonstrated the ability to perform tasks like channel equalization and symbol detection by automatically adapting to current channel conditions. This is done without requiring any explicit optimization and by leveraging not only short pilot sequences but also contextual information such as long-term channel statistics. The operating principle underlying automatic adaptation is in-context learning (ICL), an emerging property of sequence models. Prior art adopted transformer-based sequence models, which, however, have a computational complexity scaling quadratically with the context length due to batch processing. Recently, state-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a more efficient alternative, affording a linear inference complexity in the context size. This work explores the potential of SSMs for ICL-based equalization in cell-free massive MIMO systems. Results show that selective SSMs achieve comparable performance to transformer-based models while requiring approximately eight times fewer parameters and five times fewer floating-point operations.

Adaptive Learn-then-Test: Statistically Valid and Efficient Hyperparameter Selection

We introduce adaptive learn-then-test (aLTT), an efficient hyperparameter selection procedure that provides finite-sample statistical guarantees on the population risk of AI models. Unlike the existing learn-then-test (LTT) technique, which relies on conventional p-value-based multiple hypothesis testing (MHT), aLTT implements sequential data-dependent MHT with early termination by leveraging e-processes. As a result, aLTT can reduce the number of testing rounds, making it particularly well-suited for scenarios in which testing is costly or presents safety risks. Apart from maintaining statistical validity, in applications such as online policy selection for offline reinforcement learning and hyperparameter tuning for engineering systems, aLTT is shown to achieve the same performance as LTT while requiring only a fraction of the testing rounds.

Conformal Distributed Remote Inference in Sensor Networks Under Reliability and Communication Constraints

This paper presents communication-constrained distributed conformal risk control (CD-CRC) framework, a novel decision-making framework for sensor networks under communication constraints. Targeting multi-label classification problems, such as segmentation, CD-CRC dynamically adjusts local and global thresholds used to identify significant labels with the goal of ensuring a target false negative rate (FNR), while adhering to communication capacity limits. CD-CRC builds on online exponentiated gradient descent to estimate the relative quality of the observations of different sensors, and on online conformal risk control (CRC) as a mechanism to control local and global thresholds. CD-CRC is proved to offer deterministic worst-case performance guarantees in terms of FNR and communication overhead, while the regret performance in terms of false positive rate (FPR) is characterized as a function of the key hyperparameters. Simulation results highlight the effectiveness of CD-CRC, particularly in communication resource-constrained environments, making it a valuable tool for enhancing the performance and reliability of distributed sensor networks.