Calibrating Bayesian Learning via Regularization, Confidence Minimization, and Selective Inference

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) models in fields such as engineering is limited by the known difficulty of quantifying the reliability of an AI's decision. A well-calibrated AI model must correctly report its accuracy on in-distribution (ID) inputs, while also enabling the detection of out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. A conventional approach to improve calibration is the application of Bayesian ensembling. However, owing to computational limitations and model misspecification, practical ensembling strategies do not necessarily enhance calibration. This paper proposes an extension of variational inference (VI)-based Bayesian learning that integrates calibration regularization for improved ID performance, confidence minimization for OOD detection, and selective calibration to ensure a synergistic use of calibration regularization and confidence minimization. The scheme is constructed successively by first introducing calibration-regularized Bayesian learning (CBNN), then incorporating out-of-distribution confidence minimization (OCM) to yield CBNN-OCM, and finally integrating also selective calibration to produce selective CBNN-OCM (SCBNN-OCM). Selective calibration rejects inputs for which the calibration performance is expected to be insufficient. Numerical results illustrate the trade-offs between ID accuracy, ID calibration, and OOD calibration attained by both frequentist and Bayesian learning methods. Among the main conclusions, SCBNN-OCM is seen to achieve best ID and OOD performance as compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches at the cost of rejecting a sufficiently large number of inputs.

Neuromorphic Split Computing with Wake-Up Radios: Architecture and Design via Digital Twinning

Neuromorphic computing leverages the sparsity of temporal data to reduce processing energy by activating a small subset of neurons and synapses at each time step. When deployed for split computing in edge-based systems, remote neuromorphic processing units (NPUs) can reduce the communication power budget by communicating asynchronously using sparse impulse radio (IR) waveforms. This way, the input signal sparsity translates directly into energy savings both in terms of computation and communication. However, with IR transmission, the main contributor to the overall energy consumption remains the power required to maintain the main radio on. This work proposes a novel architecture that integrates a wake-up radio mechanism within a split computing system consisting of remote, wirelessly connected, NPUs. A key challenge in the design of a wake-up radio-based neuromorphic split computing system is the selection of thresholds for sensing, wake-up signal detection, and decision making. To address this problem, as a second contribution, this work proposes a novel methodology that leverages the use of a digital twin (DT), i.e., a simulator, of the physical system, coupled with a sequential statistical testing approach known as Learn Then Test (LTT) to provide theoretical reliability guarantees. The proposed DT-LTT methodology is broadly applicable to other design problems, and is showcased here for neuromorphic communications. Experimental results validate the design and the analysis, confirming the theoretical reliability guarantees and illustrating trade-offs among reliability, energy consumption, and informativeness of the decisions.

Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization With Across-Task Transferable Max-Value Entropy Search

In many applications, ranging from logistics to engineering, a designer is faced with a sequence of optimization tasks for which the objectives are in the form of black-box functions that are costly to evaluate. For example, the designer may need to tune the hyperparameters of neural network models for different learning tasks over time. Rather than evaluating the objective function for each candidate solution, the designer may have access to approximations of the objective functions, for which higher-fidelity evaluations entail a larger cost. Existing multi-fidelity black-box optimization strategies select candidate solutions and fidelity levels with the goal of maximizing the information accrued about the optimal value or solution for the current task. Assuming that successive optimization tasks are related, this paper introduces a novel information-theoretic acquisition function that balances the need to acquire information about the current task with the goal of collecting information transferable to future tasks. The proposed method includes shared inter-task latent variables, which are transferred across tasks by implementing particle-based variational Bayesian updates. Experimental results across synthetic and real-world examples reveal that the proposed provident acquisition strategy that caters to future tasks can significantly improve the optimization efficiency as soon as a sufficient number of tasks is processed.

Cross-Validation Conformal Risk Control

Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set predictor that is extracted from the point predictor to control a risk function such as the probability of miscoverage or the false negative rate. The original CRC requires the available data set to be split between training and validation data sets. This can be problematic when data availability is limited, resulting in inefficient set predictors. In this paper, a novel CRC method is introduced that is based on cross-validation, rather than on validation as the original CRC. The proposed cross-validation CRC (CV-CRC) extends a version of the jackknife-minmax from CP to CRC, allowing for the control of a broader range of risk functions. CV-CRC is proved to offer theoretical guarantees on the average risk of the set predictor. Furthermore, numerical experiments show that CV-CRC can reduce the average set size with respect to CRC when the available data are limited.

Generalization and Informativeness of Conformal Prediction

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base predictor into a set predictor with coverage guarantees. While CP certifies the predicted set to contain the target quantity with a user-defined tolerance, it does not provide control over the average size of the predicted sets, i.e., over the informativeness of the prediction. In this work, a theoretical connection is established between the generalization properties of the base predictor and the informativeness of the resulting CP prediction sets. To this end, an upper bound is derived on the expected size of the CP set predictor that builds on generalization error bounds for the base predictor. The derived upper bound provides insights into the dependence of the average size of the CP set predictor on the amount of calibration data, the target reliability, and the generalization performance of the base predictor. The theoretical insights are validated using simple numerical regression and classification tasks.

Agreeing to Stop: Reliable Latency-Adaptive Decision Making via Ensembles of Spiking Neural Networks

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are recurrent models that can leverage sparsity in input time series to efficiently carry out tasks such as classification. Additional efficiency gains can be obtained if decisions are taken as early as possible as a function of the complexity of the input time series. The decision on when to stop inference and produce a decision must rely on an estimate of the current accuracy of the decision. Prior work demonstrated the use of conformal prediction (CP) as a principled way to quantify uncertainty and support adaptive-latency decisions in SNNs. In this paper, we propose to enhance the uncertainty quantification capabilities of SNNs by implementing ensemble models for the purpose of improving the reliability of stopping decisions. Intuitively, an ensemble of multiple models can decide when to stop more reliably by selecting times at which most models agree that the current accuracy level is sufficient. The proposed method relies on different forms of information pooling from ensemble models, and offers theoretical reliability guarantees. We specifically show that variational inference-based ensembles with p-variable pooling significantly reduce the average latency of state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining reliability guarantees.

Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Control

In many real-world problems, predictions are leveraged to monitor and control cyber-physical systems, demanding guarantees on the satisfaction of reliability and safety requirements. However, predictions are inherently uncertain, and managing prediction uncertainty presents significant challenges in environments characterized by complex dynamics and forking trajectories. In this work, we assume access to a pre-designed probabilistic implicit or explicit sequence model, which may have been obtained using model-based or model-free methods. We introduce probabilistic time series-conformal risk prediction (PTS-CRC), a novel post-hoc calibration procedure that operates on the predictions produced by any pre-designed probabilistic forecaster to yield reliable error bars. In contrast to existing art, PTS-CRC produces predictive sets based on an ensemble of multiple prototype trajectories sampled from the sequence model, supporting the efficient representation of forking uncertainties. Furthermore, unlike the state of the art, PTS-CRC can satisfy reliability definitions beyond coverage. This property is leveraged to devise a novel model predictive control (MPC) framework that addresses open-loop and closed-loop control problems under general average constraints on the quality or safety of the control policy. We experimentally validate the performance of PTS-CRC prediction and control by studying a number of use cases in the context of wireless networking. Across all the considered tasks, PTS-CRC predictors are shown to provide more informative predictive sets, as well as safe control policies with larger returns.

Federated Inference with Reliable Uncertainty Quantification over Wireless Channels via Conformal Prediction

Consider a setting in which devices and a server share a pre-trained model. The server wishes to make an inference on a new input given the model. Devices have access to data, previously not used for training, and can communicate to the server over a common wireless channel. If the devices have no access to the new input, can communication from devices to the server enhance the quality of the inference decision at the server? Recent work has introduced federated conformal prediction (CP), which leverages devices-to-server communication to improve the reliability of the server's decision. With federated CP, devices communicate to the server information about the loss accrued by the shared pre-trained model on the local data, and the server leverages this information to calibrate a decision interval, or set, so that it is guaranteed to contain the correct answer with a pre-defined target reliability level. Previous work assumed noise-free communication, whereby devices can communicate a single real number to the server. In this paper, we study for the first time federated CP in a wireless setting. We introduce a novel protocol, termed wireless federated conformal prediction (WFCP), which builds on type-based multiple access (TBMA) and on a novel quantile correction strategy. WFCP is proved to provide formal reliability guarantees in terms of coverage of the predicted set produced by the server. Using numerical results, we demonstrate the significant advantages of WFCP against digital implementations of existing federated CP schemes, especially in regimes with limited communication resources and/or large number of devices.

Bayesian Optimization with Formal Safety Guarantees via Online Conformal Prediction

Black-box zero-th order optimization is a central primitive for applications in fields as diverse as finance, physics, and engineering. In a common formulation of this problem, a designer sequentially attempts candidate solutions, receiving noisy feedback on the value of each attempt from the system. In this paper, we study scenarios in which feedback is also provided on the safety of the attempted solution, and the optimizer is constrained to limit the number of unsafe solutions that are tried throughout the optimization process. Focusing on methods based on Bayesian optimization (BO), prior art has introduced an optimization scheme -- referred to as SAFEOPT -- that is guaranteed not to select any unsafe solution with a controllable probability over feedback noise as long as strict assumptions on the safety constraint function are met. In this paper, a novel BO-based approach is introduced that satisfies safety requirements irrespective of properties of the constraint function. This strong theoretical guarantee is obtained at the cost of allowing for an arbitrary, controllable but non-zero, rate of violation of the safety constraint. The proposed method, referred to as SAFE-BOCP, builds on online conformal prediction (CP) and is specialized to the cases in which feedback on the safety constraint is either noiseless or noisy. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data validate the advantages and flexibility of the proposed SAFE-BOCP.

SpikeCP: Delay-Adaptive Reliable Spiking Neural Networks via Conformal Prediction

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) process time-series data via internal event-driven neural dynamics whose energy consumption depends on the number of spikes exchanged between neurons over the course of the input presentation. In typical implementations of an SNN classifier, decisions are produced after the entire input sequence has been processed, resulting in latency and energy consumption levels that are fairly uniform across inputs. Recently introduced delay-adaptive SNNs tailor the inference latency -- and, with it, the energy consumption -- to the difficulty of each example, by producing an early decision when the SNN model is sufficiently ``confident''. In this paper, we start by observing that, as an SNN processes input samples, its classification decisions tend to be first under-confident and then over-confident with respect to the decision's ground-truth, unknown, test accuracy. This makes it difficult to determine a stopping time that ensures a desired level of accuracy. To address this problem, we introduce a novel delay-adaptive SNN-based inference methodology that, wrapping around any pre-trained SNN classifier, provides guaranteed reliability for the decisions produced at input-dependent stopping times. The approach entails minimal added complexity as compared to the underlying SNN, requiring only thresholding and counting operations at run time, and it leverages tools from conformal prediction (CP).