Scalable Data Assimilation with Message Passing

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing approaches suffer from synchronisation overhead in this setting. In this paper, we exploit the formulation of data assimilation as a Bayesian inference problem and apply a message-passing algorithm to solve the spatial inference problem. Since message passing is inherently based on local computations, this approach lends itself to parallel and distributed computation. In combination with a GPU-accelerated implementation, we can scale the algorithm to very large grid sizes while retaining good accuracy and compute and memory requirements.

No Train No Gain: Revisiting Efficient Training Algorithms For Transformer-based Language Models

The computation necessary for training Transformer-based language models has skyrocketed in recent years. This trend has motivated research on efficient training algorithms designed to improve training, validation, and downstream performance faster than standard training. In this work, we revisit three categories of such algorithms: dynamic architectures (layer stacking, layer dropping), batch selection (selective backprop, RHO loss), and efficient optimizers (Lion, Sophia). When pre-training BERT and T5 with a fixed computation budget using such methods, we find that their training, validation, and downstream gains vanish compared to a baseline with a fully-decayed learning rate. We define an evaluation protocol that enables computation to be done on arbitrary machines by mapping all computation time to a reference machine which we call reference system time. We discuss the limitations of our proposed protocol and release our code to encourage rigorous research in efficient training procedures: https://github.com/JeanKaddour/NoTrainNoGain.

Optimally-Weighted Estimators of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy for Likelihood-Free Inference

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-$m$ rate, where $m$ is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large $m$ is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

Towards Healing the Blindness of Score Matching

Score-based divergences have been widely used in machine learning and statistics applications. Despite their empirical success, a blindness problem has been observed when using these for multi-modal distributions. In this work, we discuss the blindness problem and propose a new family of divergences that can mitigate the blindness problem. We illustrate our proposed divergence in the context of density estimation and report improved performance compared to traditional approaches.

Composite Goodness-of-fit Tests with Kernels

Model misspecification can create significant challenges for the implementation of probabilistic models, and this has led to development of a range of inference methods which directly account for this issue. However, whether these more involved methods are required will depend on whether the model is really misspecified, and there is a lack of generally applicable methods to answer this question. One set of tools which can help are goodness-of-fit tests, where we test whether a dataset could have been generated by a fixed distribution. Kernel-based tests have been developed to for this problem, and these are popular due to their flexibility, strong theoretical guarantees and ease of implementation in a wide range of scenarios. In this paper, we extend this line of work to the more challenging composite goodness-of-fit problem, where we are instead interested in whether the data comes from any distribution in some parametric family. This is equivalent to testing whether a parametric model is well-specified for the data.

Generating Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations By Implicit Minimisation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainties

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a practical tool for demonstrating why machine learning classifiers make particular decisions. For CEs to be useful, it is important that they are easy for users to interpret. Existing methods for generating interpretable CEs rely on auxiliary generative models, which may not be suitable for complex datasets, and incur engineering overhead. We introduce a simple and fast method for generating interpretable CEs in a white-box setting without an auxiliary model, by using the predictive uncertainty of the classifier. Our experiments show that our proposed algorithm generates more interpretable CEs, according to IM1 scores, than existing methods. Additionally, our approach allows us to estimate the uncertainty of a CE, which may be important in safety-critical applications, such as those in the medical domain.

Improving Deterministic Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning for Classification and Regression

We propose a new model that estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass and works on both classification and regression problems. Our approach combines a bi-Lipschitz feature extractor with an inducing point approximate Gaussian process, offering robust and principled uncertainty estimation. This can be seen as a refinement of Deep Kernel Learning (DKL), with our changes allowing DKL to match softmax neural networks accuracy. Our method overcomes the limitations of previous work addressing deterministic uncertainty quantification, such as the dependence of uncertainty on ad hoc hyper-parameters. Our method matches SotA accuracy, 96.2% on CIFAR-10, while maintaining the speed of softmax models, and provides uncertainty estimates that outperform previous single forward pass uncertainty models. Finally, we demonstrate our method on a recently introduced benchmark for uncertainty in regression: treatment deferral in causal models for personalized medicine.

On Signal-to-Noise Ratio Issues in Variational Inference for Deep Gaussian Processes

We show that the gradient estimates used in training Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) with importance-weighted variational inference are susceptible to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) issues. Specifically, we show both theoretically and empirically that the SNR of the gradient estimates for the latent variable's variational parameters decreases as the number of importance samples increases. As a result, these gradient estimates degrade to pure noise if the number of importance samples is too large. To address this pathology, we show how doubly-reparameterized gradient estimators, originally proposed for training variational autoencoders, can be adapted to the DGP setting and that the resultant estimators completely remedy the SNR issue, thereby providing more reliable training. Finally, we demonstrate that our fix can lead to improvements in the predictive performance of the model's predictive posterior.

Interlocking Backpropagation: Improving depthwise model-parallelism

The number of parameters in state of the art neural networks has drastically increased in recent years. This surge of interest in large scale neural networks has motivated the development of new distributed training strategies enabling such models. One such strategy is model-parallel distributed training. Unfortunately, model-parallelism suffers from poor resource utilisation, which leads to wasted resources. In this work, we improve upon recent developments in an idealised model-parallel optimisation setting: local learning. Motivated by poor resource utilisation, we introduce a class of intermediary strategies between local and global learning referred to as interlocking backpropagation. These strategies preserve many of the compute-efficiency advantages of local optimisation, while recovering much of the task performance achieved by global optimisation. We assess our strategies on both image classification ResNets and Transformer language models, finding that our strategy consistently out-performs local learning in terms of task performance, and out-performs global learning in training efficiency.