ST-LoRA: Single Trajectory LoRA Ensemble for Uncertainty Aware Agricultural Segmentation

Reliable decision-support in digital agriculture requires accurate predictions and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensemble methods provide strong uncertainty quantification, but their computational and memory demands limit practical use, while single-model approximations often trade off uncertainty quality for efficiency. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble framework that builds diverse ensemble members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. Each member shares a frozen pretrained backbone and differs only in lightweight low-rank adapters, reducing trainable parameters to under 10% of the full model while preserving ensemble diversity. We evaluate across two agricultural datasets - GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse) - using SegFormer and Mask2Former, covering in-distribution performance, calibration under distribution shift, and out-of-distribution detection. Ablations show feed-forward layers, not attention layers, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, contrary to the attention-only convention from language models. ST-LoRA matches or exceeds full-rank ensembles in segmentation accuracy and calibration across both datasets and architectures, while substantially reducing training time, inference latency, memory footprint, and storage requirements. Against efficient baselines - Snapshot Ensemble, MC Dropout, and Deep Deterministic Uncertainty - ST-LoRA consistently matches or outperforms them in image/pixel-level OoD detection, calibration stability under shift, and cross-seed variance, with far fewer parameters and lower compute. These results show LoRA-efficient ensemble adaptation is a highly effective, practical approach for uncertainty-aware agricultural vision systems.

Forecasting the Number of Harvest-ready Fruits of Sweet Peppers Using Multimodal Time-Series Data

Accurate yield forecasting at the individual-plant level is critical for precision agriculture and supply-chain planning, yet public datasets capturing both visual growth dynamics and per-plant measurement labels are scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel, annotated image time-series dataset of 691 sweet pepper plants monitored over two growing seasons, comprising 4837 images with per-plant fruit counts categorized by maturity. We propose a multimodal deep learning framework that fuses high-dimensional image features, extracted using the DinoV3 encoder, with numerical count measurements. Our architecture utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to model temporal dependencies and handles irregular sampling intervals common in greenhouse monitoring. Through quantitative experiments, we demonstrate that this multimodal approach reduces RMSE over a persistence baseline by 33% and 38% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively, with a further 1.2% average gain over a measurement-only model. Furthermore, we employ Deep Ensembles and Gaussian Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates, with an Uncertainty Calibration Error (UCE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.89 depending on the cross-season evaluation direction, offering a principled confidence signal for real-world agricultural decision-making. We release the dataset and code to support reproducible research and to accelerate development of data-driven yield forecasting methods for horticultural crops.

Still image and spatial-temporal tomato data enabling detection, segmentation, tracking, and video-instance segmentation using strong and weak labels

In this manuscript we release two datasets for visual sensing of tomato plants grown in commercial-like settings and acquired using a robot. The first is BUTom21 which consists of still images and manual annotations. The second is BUTom-ST21 which consists of video-based data and semi-automated annotations through AI-based methods, referred to as pseudo-labels. In both cases, we provide pixel-level labels for the ripeness of the fruit. The aim is to provide the research community a challenging set of real-world imagery to explore methods to sense and estimate the state of tomato plants and their fruit, which is an important horticultural crop. Importantly, the spatial-temporal dataset provides individual fruit count and ripeness information enabling researchers to push the boundaries of field-based phenotyping.

Confident Naturalness Explanation (CNE): A Framework to Explain and Assess Patterns Forming Naturalness

Protected natural areas are regions that have been minimally affected by human activities such as urbanization, agriculture, and other human interventions. To better understand and map the naturalness of these areas, machine learning models can be used to analyze satellite imagery. Specifically, explainable machine learning methods show promise in uncovering patterns that contribute to the concept of naturalness within these protected environments. Additionally, addressing the uncertainty inherent in machine learning models is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of this concept. However, existing approaches have limitations. They either fail to provide explanations that are both valid and objective or struggle to offer a quantitative metric that accurately measures the contribution of specific patterns to naturalness, along with the associated confidence. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called the Confident Naturalness Explanation (CNE) framework. This framework combines explainable machine learning and uncertainty quantification to assess and explain naturalness. We introduce a new quantitative metric that describes the confident contribution of patterns to the concept of naturalness. Furthermore, we generate an uncertainty-aware segmentation mask for each input sample, highlighting areas where the model lacks knowledge. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, we apply it to a study site in Fennoscandia using two open-source satellite datasets.