Instance-optimality in optimal value estimation: Adaptivity via variance-reduced Q-learning

Various algorithms in reinforcement learning exhibit dramatic variability in their convergence rates and ultimate accuracy as a function of the problem structure. Such instance-specific behavior is not captured by existing global minimax bounds, which are worst-case in nature. We analyze the problem of estimating optimal $Q$-value functions for a discounted Markov decision process with discrete states and actions and identify an instance-dependent functional that controls the difficulty of estimation in the $\ell_\infty$-norm. Using a local minimax framework, we show that this functional arises in lower bounds on the accuracy on any estimation procedure. In the other direction, we establish the sharpness of our lower bounds, up to factors logarithmic in the state and action spaces, by analyzing a variance-reduced version of $Q$-learning. Our theory provides a precise way of distinguishing "easy" problems from "hard" ones in the context of $Q$-learning, as illustrated by an ensemble with a continuum of difficulty.

Preference learning along multiple criteria: A game-theoretic perspective

The literature on ranking from ordinal data is vast, and there are several ways to aggregate overall preferences from pairwise comparisons between objects. In particular, it is well known that any Nash equilibrium of the zero sum game induced by the preference matrix defines a natural solution concept (winning distribution over objects) known as a von Neumann winner. Many real-world problems, however, are inevitably multi-criteria, with different pairwise preferences governing the different criteria. In this work, we generalize the notion of a von Neumann winner to the multi-criteria setting by taking inspiration from Blackwell's approachability. Our framework allows for non-linear aggregation of preferences across criteria, and generalizes the linearization-based approach from multi-objective optimization. From a theoretical standpoint, we show that the Blackwell winner of a multi-criteria problem instance can be computed as the solution to a convex optimization problem. Furthermore, given random samples of pairwise comparisons, we show that a simple plug-in estimator achieves near-optimal minimax sample complexity. Finally, we showcase the practical utility of our framework in a user study on autonomous driving, where we find that the Blackwell winner outperforms the von Neumann winner for the overall preferences.

Minimax Off-Policy Evaluation for Multi-Armed Bandits

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation in the multi-armed bandit model with bounded rewards, and develop minimax rate-optimal procedures under three settings. First, when the behavior policy is known, we show that the Switch estimator, a method that alternates between the plug-in and importance sampling estimators, is minimax rate-optimal for all sample sizes. Second, when the behavior policy is unknown, we analyze performance in terms of the competitive ratio, thereby revealing a fundamental gap between the settings of known and unknown behavior policies. When the behavior policy is unknown, any estimator must have mean-squared error larger -- relative to the oracle estimator equipped with the knowledge of the behavior policy -- by a multiplicative factor proportional to the support size of the target policy. Moreover, we demonstrate that the plug-in approach achieves this worst-case competitive ratio up to a logarithmic factor. Third, we initiate the study of the partial knowledge setting in which it is assumed that the minimum probability taken by the behavior policy is known. We show that the plug-in estimator is optimal for relatively large values of the minimum probability, but is sub-optimal when the minimum probability is low. In order to remedy this gap, we propose a new estimator based on approximation by Chebyshev polynomials that provably achieves the optimal estimation error. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data corroborate our theoretical findings.

Optimal oracle inequalities for solving projected fixed-point equations

Linear fixed point equations in Hilbert spaces arise in a variety of settings, including reinforcement learning, and computational methods for solving differential and integral equations. We study methods that use a collection of random observations to compute approximate solutions by searching over a known low-dimensional subspace of the Hilbert space. First, we prove an instance-dependent upper bound on the mean-squared error for a linear stochastic approximation scheme that exploits Polyak--Ruppert averaging. This bound consists of two terms: an approximation error term with an instance-dependent approximation factor, and a statistical error term that captures the instance-specific complexity of the noise when projected onto the low-dimensional subspace. Using information theoretic methods, we also establish lower bounds showing that both of these terms cannot be improved, again in an instance-dependent sense. A concrete consequence of our characterization is that the optimal approximation factor in this problem can be much larger than a universal constant. We show how our results precisely characterize the error of a class of temporal difference learning methods for the policy evaluation problem with linear function approximation, establishing their optimality.

ROOT-SGD: Sharp Nonasymptotics and Asymptotic Efficiency in a Single Algorithm

The theory and practice of stochastic optimization has focused on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in recent years, retaining the basic first-order stochastic nature of SGD while aiming to improve it via mechanisms such as averaging, momentum, and variance reduction. Improvement can be measured along various dimensions, however, and it has proved difficult to achieve improvements both in terms of nonasymptotic measures of convergence rate and asymptotic measures of distributional tightness. In this work, we consider first-order stochastic optimization from a general statistical point of view, motivating a specific form of recursive averaging of past stochastic gradients. The resulting algorithm, which we refer to as \emph{Recursive One-Over-T SGD} (ROOT-SGD), matches the state-of-the-art convergence rate among online variance-reduced stochastic approximation methods. Moreover, under slightly stronger distributional assumptions, the rescaled last-iterate of ROOT-SGD converges to a zero-mean Gaussian distribution that achieves near-optimal covariance.

Revisiting complexity and the bias-variance tradeoff

The recent success of high-dimensional models, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), has led many to question the validity of the bias-variance tradeoff principle in high dimensions. We reexamine it with respect to two key choices: the model class and the complexity measure. We argue that failing to suitably specify either one can falsely suggest that the tradeoff does not hold. This observation motivates us to seek a valid complexity measure, defined with respect to a reasonably good class of models. Building on Rissanen's principle of minimum description length (MDL), we propose a novel MDL-based complexity (MDL-COMP). We focus on the context of linear models, which have been recently used as a stylized tractable approximation to DNNs in high-dimensions. MDL-COMP is defined via an optimality criterion over the encodings induced by a good Ridge estimator class. We derive closed-form expressions for MDL-COMP and show that for a dataset with $n$ observations and $d$ parameters it is \emph{not always} equal to $d/n$, and is a function of the singular values of the design matrix and the signal-to-noise ratio. For random Gaussian design, we find that while MDL-COMP scales linearly with $d$ in low-dimensions ($d<n$), for high-dimensions ($d>n$) the scaling is exponentially smaller, scaling as $\log d$. We hope that such a slow growth of complexity in high-dimensions can help shed light on the good generalization performance of several well-tuned high-dimensional models. Moreover, via an array of simulations and real-data experiments, we show that a data-driven Prac-MDL-COMP can inform hyper-parameter tuning for ridge regression in limited data settings, sometimes improving upon cross-validation.

Instability, Computational Efficiency and Statistical Accuracy

Many statistical estimators are defined as the fixed point of a data-dependent operator, with estimators based on minimizing a cost function being an important special case. The limiting performance of such estimators depends on the properties of the population-level operator in the idealized limit of infinitely many samples. We develop a general framework that yields bounds on statistical accuracy based on the interplay between the deterministic convergence rate of the algorithm at the population level, and its degree of (in)stability when applied to an empirical object based on $n$ samples. Using this framework, we analyze both stable forms of gradient descent and some higher-order and unstable algorithms, including Newton's method and its cubic-regularized variant, as well as the EM algorithm. We provide applications of our general results to several concrete classes of models, including Gaussian mixture estimation, single-index models, and informative non-response models. We exhibit cases in which an unstable algorithm can achieve the same statistical accuracy as a stable algorithm in exponentially fewer steps---namely, with the number of iterations being reduced from polynomial to logarithmic in sample size $n$.

FedSplit: An algorithmic framework for fast federated optimization

Motivated by federated learning, we consider the hub-and-spoke model of distributed optimization in which a central authority coordinates the computation of a solution among many agents while limiting communication. We first study some past procedures for federated optimization, and show that their fixed points need not correspond to stationary points of the original optimization problem, even in simple convex settings with deterministic updates. In order to remedy these issues, we introduce FedSplit, a class of algorithms based on operator splitting procedures for solving distributed convex minimization with additive structure. We prove that these procedures have the correct fixed points, corresponding to optima of the original optimization problem, and we characterize their convergence rates under different settings. Our theory shows that these methods are provably robust to inexact computation of intermediate local quantities. We complement our theory with some simple experiments that demonstrate the benefits of our methods in practice.

Lower bounds in multiple testing: A framework based on derandomized proxies

The large bulk of work in multiple testing has focused on specifying procedures that control the false discovery rate (FDR), with relatively less attention being paid to the corresponding Type II error known as the false non-discovery rate (FNR). A line of more recent work in multiple testing has begun to investigate the tradeoffs between the FDR and FNR and to provide lower bounds on the performance of procedures that depend on the model structure. Lacking thus far, however, has been a general approach to obtaining lower bounds for a broad class of models. This paper introduces an analysis strategy based on derandomization, illustrated by applications to various concrete models. Our main result is meta-theorem that gives a general recipe for obtaining lower bounds on the combination of FDR and FNR. We illustrate this meta-theorem by deriving explicit bounds for several models, including instances with dependence, scale-transformed alternatives, and non-Gaussian-like distributions. We provide numerical simulations of some of these lower bounds, and show a close relation to the actual performance of the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) algorithm.

On Linear Stochastic Approximation: Fine-grained Polyak-Ruppert and Non-Asymptotic Concentration

We undertake a precise study of the asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of stochastic approximation procedures with Polyak-Ruppert averaging for solving a linear system $\bar{A} \theta = \bar{b}$. When the matrix $\bar{A}$ is Hurwitz, we prove a central limit theorem (CLT) for the averaged iterates with fixed step size and number of iterations going to infinity. The CLT characterizes the exact asymptotic covariance matrix, which is the sum of the classical Polyak-Ruppert covariance and a correction term that scales with the step size. Under assumptions on the tail of the noise distribution, we prove a non-asymptotic concentration inequality whose main term matches the covariance in CLT in any direction, up to universal constants. When the matrix $\bar{A}$ is not Hurwitz but only has non-negative real parts in its eigenvalues, we prove that the averaged LSA procedure actually achieves an $O(1/T)$ rate in mean-squared error. Our results provide a more refined understanding of linear stochastic approximation in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic settings. We also show various applications of the main results, including the study of momentum-based stochastic gradient methods as well as temporal difference algorithms in reinforcement learning.