Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are impractical in many real-data settings, such as time series (where temporal dependence violates exchangeability, and where memoryless predictors will inevitably have poor predictive accuracy). Recent work shows that the split conformal prediction method is robust to these issues of memory-based predictors and deviations from exchangeability that are common features of time-series data. However, since using sample splitting can lead to lower accuracy, this motivates asking whether other predictive inference methods (that do not rely on data splitting) could also be reliably used in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer an arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a careful modification tailored to such settings, which we term the \emph{leave-a-window-out} (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from \emph{cyclic exchangeability}, and we introduce new coefficients to measure the extent of this departure. Experiments on time series data demonstrate that our LWO method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

Instance-optimal stochastic convex optimization: Can we improve upon sample-average and robust stochastic approximation?

We study the unconstrained minimization of a smooth and strongly convex population loss function under a stochastic oracle that introduces both additive and multiplicative noise; this is a canonical and widely-studied setting that arises across operations research, signal processing, and machine learning. We begin by showing that standard approaches such as sample average approximation and robust (or averaged) stochastic approximation can lead to suboptimal -- and in some cases arbitrarily poor -- performance with realistic finite sample sizes. In contrast, we demonstrate that a carefully designed variance reduction strategy, which we term VISOR for short, can significantly outperform these approaches while using the same sample size. Our upper bounds are complemented by finite-sample, information-theoretic local minimax lower bounds, which highlight fundamental, instance-dependent factors that govern the performance of any estimator. Taken together, these results demonstrate that an accelerated variant of VISOR is instance-optimal, achieving the best possible sample complexity up to logarithmic factors while also attaining optimal oracle complexity. We apply our theory to generalized linear models and improve upon classical results. In particular, we obtain the best-known non-asymptotic, instance-dependent generalization error bounds for stochastic methods, even in linear regression.

Perfusion Imaging and Single Material Reconstruction in Polychromatic Photon Counting CT

Background: Perfusion computed tomography (CT) images the dynamics of a contrast agent through the body over time, and is one of the highest X-ray dose scans in medical imaging. Recently, a theoretically justified reconstruction algorithm based on a monotone variational inequality (VI) was proposed for single material polychromatic photon-counting CT, and showed promising early results at low-dose imaging. Purpose: We adapt this reconstruction algorithm for perfusion CT, to reconstruct the concentration map of the contrast agent while the static background tissue is assumed known; we call our method VI-PRISM (VI-based PeRfusion Imaging and Single Material reconstruction). We evaluate its potential for dose-reduced perfusion CT, using a digital phantom with water and iodine of varying concentration. Methods: Simulated iodine concentrations range from 0.05 to 2.5 mg/ml. The simulated X-ray source emits photons up to 100 keV, with average intensity ranging from $10^5$ down to $10^2$ photons per detector element. The number of tomographic projections was varied from 984 down to 8 to characterize the tradeoff in photon allocation between views and intensity. Results: We compare VI-PRISM against filtered back-projection (FBP), and find that VI-PRISM recovers iodine concentration with error below 0.4 mg/ml at all source intensity levels tested. Even with a dose reduction between 10x and 100x compared to FBP, VI-PRISM exhibits reconstruction quality on par with FBP. Conclusion: Across all photon budgets and angular sampling densities tested, VI-PRISM achieved consistently lower RMSE, reduced noise, and higher SNR compared to filtered back-projection. Even in extremely photon-limited and sparsely sampled regimes, VI-PRISM recovered iodine concentrations with errors below 0.4 mg/ml, showing that VI-PRISM can support accurate and dose-efficient perfusion imaging in photon-counting CT.

Multiscale replay: A robust algorithm for stochastic variational inequalities with a Markovian buffer

We introduce the Multiscale Experience Replay (MER) algorithm for solving a class of stochastic variational inequalities (VIs) in settings where samples are generated from a Markov chain and we have access to a memory buffer to store them. Rather than uniformly sampling from the buffer, MER utilizes a multi-scale sampling scheme to emulate the behavior of VI algorithms designed for independent and identically distributed samples, overcoming bias in the de facto serial scheme and thereby accelerating convergence. Notably, unlike standard sample-skipping variants of serial algorithms, MER is robust in that it achieves this acceleration in iteration complexity whenever possible, and without requiring knowledge of the mixing time of the Markov chain. We also discuss applications of MER, particularly in policy evaluation with temporal difference learning and in training generalized linear models with dependent data.

Efficient reductions from a Gaussian source with applications to statistical-computational tradeoffs

Given a single observation from a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean $\theta$, we design computationally efficient procedures that can approximately generate an observation from a different target distribution $Q_{\theta}$ uniformly for all $\theta$ in a parameter set. We leverage our technique to establish reduction-based computational lower bounds for several canonical high-dimensional statistical models under widely-believed conjectures in average-case complexity. In particular, we cover cases in which: 1. $Q_{\theta}$ is a general location model with non-Gaussian distribution, including both light-tailed examples (e.g., generalized normal distributions) and heavy-tailed ones (e.g., Student's $t$-distributions). As a consequence, we show that computational lower bounds proved for spiked tensor PCA with Gaussian noise are universal, in that they extend to other non-Gaussian noise distributions within our class. 2. $Q_{\theta}$ is a normal distribution with mean $f(\theta)$ for a general, smooth, and nonlinear link function $f:\mathbb{R} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$. Using this reduction, we construct a reduction from symmetric mixtures of linear regressions to generalized linear models with link function $f$, and establish computational lower bounds for solving the $k$-sparse generalized linear model when $f$ is an even function. This result constitutes the first reduction-based confirmation of a $k$-to-$k^2$ statistical-to-computational gap in $k$-sparse phase retrieval, resolving a conjecture posed by Cai et al. (2016). As a second application, we construct a reduction from the sparse rank-1 submatrix model to the planted submatrix model, establishing a pointwise correspondence between the phase diagrams of the two models that faithfully preserves regions of computational hardness and tractability.

Estimating stationary mass, frequency by frequency

Suppose we observe a trajectory of length $n$ from an $\alpha$-mixing stochastic process over a finite but potentially large state space. We consider the problem of estimating the probability mass placed by the stationary distribution of any such process on elements that occur with a certain frequency in the observed sequence. We estimate this vector of probabilities in total variation distance, showing universal consistency in $n$ and recovering known results for i.i.d. sequences as special cases. Our proposed methodology carefully combines the plug-in (or empirical) estimator with a recently-proposed modification of the Good--Turing estimator called \textsc{WingIt}, which was originally developed for Markovian sequences. En route to controlling the error of our estimator, we develop new performance bounds on \textsc{WingIt} and the plug-in estimator for $\alpha$-mixing stochastic processes. Importantly, the extensively used method of Poissonization can no longer be applied in our non i.i.d. setting, and so we develop complementary tools -- including concentration inequalities for a natural self-normalized statistic of mixing sequences -- that may prove independently useful in the design and analysis of estimators for related problems.

Just Wing It: Optimal Estimation of Missing Mass in a Markovian Sequence

We study the problem of estimating the stationary mass -- also called the unigram mass -- that is missing from a single trajectory of a discrete-time, ergodic Markov chain. This problem has several applications -- for example, estimating the stationary missing mass is critical for accurately smoothing probability estimates in sequence models. While the classical Good--Turing estimator from the 1950s has appealing properties for i.i.d. data, it is known to be biased in the Markov setting, and other heuristic estimators do not come equipped with guarantees. Operating in the general setting in which the size of the state space may be much larger than the length $n$ of the trajectory, we develop a linear-runtime estimator called \emph{Windowed Good--Turing} (\textsc{WingIt}) and show that its risk decays as $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathsf{T_{mix}}/n)$, where $\mathsf{T_{mix}}$ denotes the mixing time of the chain in total variation distance. Notably, this rate is independent of the size of the state space and minimax-optimal up to a logarithmic factor in $n / \mathsf{T_{mix}}$. We also present a bound on the variance of the missing mass random variable, which may be of independent interest. We extend our estimator to approximate the stationary mass placed on elements occurring with small frequency in $X^n$. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our estimators both in simulations on canonical chains and on sequences constructed from a popular natural language corpus.

Efficient reductions between some statistical models

We study the problem of approximately transforming a sample from a source statistical model to a sample from a target statistical model without knowing the parameters of the source model, and construct several computationally efficient such reductions between statistical experiments. In particular, we provide computationally efficient procedures that approximately reduce uniform, Erlang, and Laplace location models to general target families. We illustrate our methodology by establishing nonasymptotic reductions between some canonical high-dimensional problems, spanning mixtures of experts, phase retrieval, and signal denoising. Notably, the reductions are structure preserving and can accommodate missing data. We also point to a possible application in transforming one differentially private mechanism to another.

Hyperparameter tuning via trajectory predictions: Stochastic prox-linear methods in matrix sensing

Motivated by the desire to understand stochastic algorithms for nonconvex optimization that are robust to their hyperparameter choices, we analyze a mini-batched prox-linear iterative algorithm for the problem of recovering an unknown rank-1 matrix from rank-1 Gaussian measurements corrupted by noise. We derive a deterministic recursion that predicts the error of this method and show, using a non-asymptotic framework, that this prediction is accurate for any batch-size and a large range of step-sizes. In particular, our analysis reveals that this method, though stochastic, converges linearly from a local initialization with a fixed step-size to a statistical error floor. Our analysis also exposes how the batch-size, step-size, and noise level affect the (linear) convergence rate and the eventual statistical estimation error, and we demonstrate how to use our deterministic predictions to perform hyperparameter tuning (e.g. step-size and batch-size selection) without ever running the method. On a technical level, our analysis is enabled in part by showing that the fluctuations of the empirical iterates around our deterministic predictions scale with the error of the previous iterate.

Perceptual adjustment queries and an inverted measurement paradigm for low-rank metric learning

We introduce a new type of query mechanism for collecting human feedback, called the perceptual adjustment query ( PAQ). Being both informative and cognitively lightweight, the PAQ adopts an inverted measurement scheme, and combines advantages from both cardinal and ordinal queries. We showcase the PAQ in the metric learning problem, where we collect PAQ measurements to learn an unknown Mahalanobis distance. This gives rise to a high-dimensional, low-rank matrix estimation problem to which standard matrix estimators cannot be applied. Consequently, we develop a two-stage estimator for metric learning from PAQs, and provide sample complexity guarantees for this estimator. We present numerical simulations demonstrating the performance of the estimator and its notable properties.