Risk prediction of pathological gambling on social media

This paper addresses the problem of risk prediction on social media data, specifically focusing on the classification of Reddit users as having a pathological gambling disorder. To tackle this problem, this paper focuses on incorporating temporal and emotional features into the model. The preprocessing phase involves dealing with the time irregularity of posts by padding sequences. Two baseline architectures are used for preliminary evaluation: BERT classifier on concatenated posts per user and GRU with LSTM on sequential data. Experimental results demonstrate that the sequential models outperform the concatenation-based model. The results of the experiments conclude that the incorporation of a time decay layer (TD) and passing the emotion classification layer (EmoBERTa) through LSTM improves the performance significantly. Experiments concluded that the addition of a self-attention layer didn't significantly improve the performance of the model, however provided easily interpretable attention scores. The developed architecture with the inclusion of EmoBERTa and TD layers achieved a high F1 score, beating existing benchmarks on pathological gambling dataset. Future work may involve the early prediction of risk factors associated with pathological gambling disorder and testing models on other datasets. Overall, this research highlights the significance of the sequential processing of posts including temporal and emotional features to boost the predictive power, as well as adding an attention layer for interpretability.

Modelling Irregularly Sampled Time Series Without Imputation

Modelling irregularly-sampled time series (ISTS) is challenging because of missing values. Most existing methods focus on handling ISTS by converting irregularly sampled data into regularly sampled data via imputation. These models assume an underlying missing mechanism leading to unwanted bias and sub-optimal performance. We present SLAN (Switch LSTM Aggregate Network), which utilizes a pack of LSTMs to model ISTS without imputation, eliminating the assumption of any underlying process. It dynamically adapts its architecture on the fly based on the measured sensors. SLAN exploits the irregularity information to capture each sensor's local summary explicitly and maintains a global summary state throughout the observational period. We demonstrate the efficacy of SLAN on publicly available datasets, namely, MIMIC-III, Physionet 2012 and Physionet 2019. The code is available at https://github.com/Rohit102497/SLAN.

Polarimetric phase retrieval: uniqueness and algorithms

This work introduces a novel Fourier phase retrieval model, called polarimetric phase retrieval that enables a systematic use of polarization information in Fourier phase retrieval problems. We provide a complete characterization of uniqueness properties of this new model by unraveling equivalencies with a peculiar polynomial factorization problem. We introduce two different but complementary categories of reconstruction methods. The first one is algebraic and relies on the use of approximate greatest common divisor computations using Sylvester matrices. The second one carefully adapts existing algorithms for Fourier phase retrieval, namely semidefinite positive relaxation and Wirtinger-Flow, to solve the polarimetric phase retrieval problem. Finally, a set of numerical experiments permits a detailed assessment of the numerical behavior and relative performances of each proposed reconstruction strategy. We further highlight a reconstruction strategy that combines both approaches for scalable, computationally efficient and asymptotically MSE optimal performance.

Wind power predictions from nowcasts to 4-hour forecasts: a learning approach with variable selection

We study the prediction of short term wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for those quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy systems and markets. For those time scales, outputs of numerical weather prediction models are usually overlooked even though they should provide valuable information on higher scales dynamics. In this work, we combine those outputs with local observations using machine learning. So as to make the results usable for practitioners, we focus on simple and well known methods which can handle a high volume of data. We study first variable selection through two simple techniques, a linear one and a nonlinear one. Then we exploit those results to forecast wind speed and wind power still with an emphasis on linear models versus nonlinear ones. For the wind power prediction, we also compare the indirect approach (wind speed predictions passed through a power curve) and the indirect one (directly predict wind power).

Learning over No-Preferred and Preferred Sequence of Items for Robust Recommendation (Extended Abstract)

This paper is an extended version of [Burashnikova et al., 2021, arXiv: 2012.06910], where we proposed a theoretically supported sequential strategy for training a large-scale Recommender System (RS) over implicit feedback, mainly in the form of clicks. The proposed approach consists in minimizing pairwise ranking loss over blocks of consecutive items constituted by a sequence of non-clicked items followed by a clicked one for each user. We present two variants of this strategy where model parameters are updated using either the momentum method or a gradient-based approach. To prevent updating the parameters for an abnormally high number of clicks over some targeted items (mainly due to bots), we introduce an upper and a lower threshold on the number of updates for each user. These thresholds are estimated over the distribution of the number of blocks in the training set. They affect the decision of RS by shifting the distribution of items that are shown to the users. Furthermore, we provide a convergence analysis of both algorithms and demonstrate their practical efficiency over six large-scale collections with respect to various ranking measures.

Recommender systems: when memory matters

In this paper, we study the effect of long memory in the learnability of a sequential recommender system including users' implicit feedback. We propose an online algorithm, where model parameters are updated user per user over blocks of items constituted by a sequence of unclicked items followed by a clicked one. We illustrate through thorough empirical evaluations that filtering users with respect to the degree of long memory contained in their interactions with the system allows to substantially gain in performance with respect to MAP and NDCG, especially in the context of training large-scale Recommender Systems.

Bilingual Topic Models for Comparable Corpora

Probabilistic topic models like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been previously extended to the bilingual setting. A fundamental modeling assumption in several of these extensions is that the input corpora are in the form of document pairs whose constituent documents share a single topic distribution. However, this assumption is strong for comparable corpora that consist of documents thematically similar to an extent only, which are, in turn, the most commonly available or easy to obtain. In this paper we relax this assumption by proposing for the paired documents to have separate, yet bound topic distributions. % a binding mechanism between the distributions of the paired documents. We suggest that the strength of the bound should depend on each pair's semantic similarity. To estimate the similarity of documents that are written in different languages we use cross-lingual word embeddings that are learned with shallow neural networks. We evaluate the proposed binding mechanism by extending two topic models: a bilingual adaptation of LDA that assumes bag-of-words inputs and a model that incorporates part of the text structure in the form of boundaries of semantically coherent segments. To assess the performance of the novel topic models we conduct intrinsic and extrinsic experiments on five bilingual, comparable corpora of English documents with French, German, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese documents. The results demonstrate the efficiency of our approach in terms of both topic coherence measured by the normalized point-wise mutual information, and generalization performance measured by perplexity and in terms of Mean Reciprocal Rank in a cross-lingual document retrieval task for each of the language pairs.

Learning over no-Preferred and Preferred Sequence of items for Robust Recommendation

In this paper, we propose a theoretically founded sequential strategy for training large-scale Recommender Systems (RS) over implicit feedback, mainly in the form of clicks. The proposed approach consists in minimizing pairwise ranking loss over blocks of consecutive items constituted by a sequence of non-clicked items followed by a clicked one for each user. We present two variants of this strategy where model parameters are updated using either the momentum method or a gradient-based approach. To prevent from updating the parameters for an abnormally high number of clicks over some targeted items (mainly due to bots), we introduce an upper and a lower threshold on the number of updates for each user. These thresholds are estimated over the distribution of the number of blocks in the training set. The thresholds affect the decision of RS and imply a shift over the distribution of items that are shown to the users. Furthermore, we provide a convergence analysis of both algorithms and demonstrate their practical efficiency over six large-scale collections, both regarding different ranking measures and computational time.

Nonlinear Functional Output Regression: a Dictionary Approach

Many applications in signal processing involve data that consists in a high number of simultaneous or sequential measurements of the same phenomenon. Such data is inherently high dimensional, however it contains strong within observation correlations and smoothness patterns which can be exploited in the learning process. A relevant modelling is provided by functional data analysis. We consider the setting of functional output regression. We introduce Projection Learning, a novel dictionary-based approach that combines a representation of the functional output on this dictionary with the minimization of a functional loss. This general method is instantiated with vector-valued kernels, allowing to impose some structure on the model. We prove general theoretical results on projection learning, with in particular a bound on the estimation error. From the practical point of view, experiments on several data sets show the efficiency of the method. Notably, we provide evidence that Projection Learning is competitive compared to other nonlinear output functional regression methods and shows an interesting ability to deal with sparsely observed functions with missing data.

Dealing with Uncertain Inputs in Regression Trees

Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty in the output variable, using for example a quantile loss in Random Forests (Meinshausen, 2006). To the best of our knowledge, no extension has been provided yet for dealing with uncertainties in the input variables, even though such uncertainties are common in practical situations. We propose here such an extension by showing how standard regression trees optimizing a quadratic loss can be adapted and learned while taking into account the uncertainties in the input. By doing so, one no longer assumes that an observation lies into a single region of the regression tree, but rather that it belongs to each region with a certain probability. Experiments conducted on several data sets illustrate the good behavior of the proposed extension.