Human in the Loop Adaptive Optimization for Improved Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting models often produce systematic, predictable errors even in critical domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare. We introduce a novel post training adaptive optimization framework that improves forecast accuracy without retraining or architectural changes. Our method automatically applies expressive transformations optimized via reinforcement learning, contextual bandits, or genetic algorithms to correct model outputs in a lightweight and model agnostic way. Theoretically, we prove that affine corrections always reduce the mean squared error; practically, we extend this idea with dynamic action based optimization. The framework also supports an optional human in the loop component: domain experts can guide corrections using natural language, which is parsed into actions by a language model. Across multiple benchmarks (e.g., electricity, weather, traffic), we observe consistent accuracy gains with minimal computational overhead. Our interactive demo shows the framework's real time usability. By combining automated post hoc refinement with interpretable and extensible mechanisms, our approach offers a powerful new direction for practical forecasting systems.

High-Dimensional Analysis of Bootstrap Ensemble Classifiers

Bootstrap methods have long been a cornerstone of ensemble learning in machine learning. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of bootstrap techniques applied to the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) ensemble in the context of large and growing sample sizes and feature dimensionalities. Leveraging tools from Random Matrix Theory, we investigate the performance of this classifier that aggregates decision functions from multiple weak classifiers, each trained on different subsets of the data. We provide insights into the use of bootstrap methods in high-dimensional settings, enhancing our understanding of their impact. Based on these findings, we propose strategies to select the number of subsets and the regularization parameter that maximize the performance of the LSSVM. Empirical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical results.

Mantis: Lightweight Calibrated Foundation Model for User-Friendly Time Series Classification

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Analysing Multi-Task Regression via Random Matrix Theory with Application to Time Series Forecasting

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Random matrix theory improved Fréchet mean of symmetric positive definite matrices

In this study, we consider the realm of covariance matrices in machine learning, particularly focusing on computing Fr\'echet means on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices, commonly referred to as Karcher or geometric means. Such means are leveraged in numerous machine-learning tasks. Relying on advanced statistical tools, we introduce a random matrix theory-based method that estimates Fr\'echet means, which is particularly beneficial when dealing with low sample support and a high number of matrices to average. Our experimental evaluation, involving both synthetic and real-world EEG and hyperspectral datasets, shows that we largely outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Random Matrix Analysis to Balance between Supervised and Unsupervised Learning under the Low Density Separation Assumption

We propose a theoretical framework to analyze semi-supervised classification under the low density separation assumption in a high-dimensional regime. In particular, we introduce QLDS, a linear classification model, where the low density separation assumption is implemented via quadratic margin maximization. The algorithm has an explicit solution with rich theoretical properties, and we show that particular cases of our algorithm are the least-square support vector machine in the supervised case, the spectral clustering in the fully unsupervised regime, and a class of semi-supervised graph-based approaches. As such, QLDS establishes a smooth bridge between these supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Using recent advances in the random matrix theory, we formally derive a theoretical evaluation of the classification error in the asymptotic regime. As an application, we derive a hyperparameter selection policy that finds the best balance between the supervised and the unsupervised terms of our learning criterion. Finally, we provide extensive illustrations of our framework, as well as an experimental study on several benchmarks to demonstrate that QLDS, while being computationally more efficient, improves over cross-validation for hyperparameter selection, indicating a high promise of the usage of random matrix theory for semi-supervised model selection.

PCA-based Multi Task Learning: a Random Matrix Approach

The article proposes and theoretically analyses a \emph{computationally efficient} multi-task learning (MTL) extension of popular principal component analysis (PCA)-based supervised learning schemes \cite{barshan2011supervised,bair2006prediction}. The analysis reveals that (i) by default learning may dramatically fail by suffering from \emph{negative transfer}, but that (ii) simple counter-measures on data labels avert negative transfer and necessarily result in improved performances. Supporting experiments on synthetic and real data benchmarks show that the proposed method achieves comparable performance with state-of-the-art MTL methods but at a \emph{significantly reduced computational cost}.

Multi-task learning on the edge: cost-efficiency and theoretical optimality

This article proposes a distributed multi-task learning (MTL) algorithm based on supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) which is: (i) theoretically optimal for Gaussian mixtures, (ii) computationally cheap and scalable. Supporting experiments on synthetic and real benchmark data demonstrate that significant energy gains can be obtained with no performance loss.

Large Dimensional Analysis and Improvement of Multi Task Learning

Multi Task Learning (MTL) efficiently leverages useful information contained in multiple related tasks to help improve the generalization performance of all tasks. This article conducts a large dimensional analysis of a simple but, as we shall see, extremely powerful when carefully tuned, Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) version of MTL, in the regime where the dimension $p$ of the data and their number $n$ grow large at the same rate. Under mild assumptions on the input data, the theoretical analysis of the MTL-LSSVM algorithm first reveals the "sufficient statistics" exploited by the algorithm and their interaction at work. These results demonstrate, as a striking consequence, that the standard approach to MTL-LSSVM is largely suboptimal, can lead to severe effects of negative transfer but that these impairments are easily corrected. These corrections are turned into an improved MTL-LSSVM algorithm which can only benefit from additional data, and the theoretical performance of which is also analyzed. As evidenced and theoretically sustained in numerous recent works, these large dimensional results are robust to broad ranges of data distributions, which our present experiments corroborate. Specifically, the article reports a systematically close behavior between theoretical and empirical performances on popular datasets, which is strongly suggestive of the applicability of the proposed carefully tuned MTL-LSSVM method to real data. This fine-tuning is fully based on the theoretical analysis and does not in particular require any cross validation procedure. Besides, the reported performances on real datasets almost systematically outperform much more elaborate and less intuitive state-of-the-art multi-task and transfer learning methods.

Random Matrix-Improved Estimation of the Wasserstein Distance between two Centered Gaussian Distributions

This article proposes a method to consistently estimate functionals $\frac1p\sum_{i=1}^pf(\lambda_i(C_1C_2))$ of the eigenvalues of the product of two covariance matrices $C_1,C_2\in\mathbb{R}^{p\times p}$ based on the empirical estimates $\lambda_i(\hat C_1\hat C_2)$ ($\hat C_a=\frac1{n_a}\sum_{i=1}^{n_a} x_i^{(a)}x_i^{(a){{\sf T}}}$), when the size $p$ and number $n_a$ of the (zero mean) samples $x_i^{(a)}$ are similar. As a corollary, a consistent estimate of the Wasserstein distance (related to the case $f(t)=\sqrt{t}$) between centered Gaussian distributions is derived. The new estimate is shown to largely outperform the classical sample covariance-based `plug-in' estimator. Based on this finding, a practical application to covariance estimation is then devised which demonstrates potentially significant performance gains with respect to state-of-the-art alternatives.