The Persuasive Power of Large Language Models

The increasing capability of Large Language Models to act as human-like social agents raises two important questions in the area of opinion dynamics. First, whether these agents can generate effective arguments that could be injected into the online discourse to steer the public opinion. Second, whether artificial agents can interact with each other to reproduce dynamics of persuasion typical of human social systems, opening up opportunities for studying synthetic social systems as faithful proxies for opinion dynamics in human populations. To address these questions, we designed a synthetic persuasion dialogue scenario on the topic of climate change, where a 'convincer' agent generates a persuasive argument for a 'skeptic' agent, who subsequently assesses whether the argument changed its internal opinion state. Different types of arguments were generated to incorporate different linguistic dimensions underpinning psycho-linguistic theories of opinion change. We then asked human judges to evaluate the persuasiveness of machine-generated arguments. Arguments that included factual knowledge, markers of trust, expressions of support, and conveyed status were deemed most effective according to both humans and agents, with humans reporting a marked preference for knowledge-based arguments. Our experimental framework lays the groundwork for future in-silico studies of opinion dynamics, and our findings suggest that artificial agents have the potential of playing an important role in collective processes of opinion formation in online social media.

Dream Content Discovery from Reddit with an Unsupervised Mixed-Method Approach

Dreaming is a fundamental but not fully understood part of human experience that can shed light on our thought patterns. Traditional dream analysis practices, while popular and aided by over 130 unique scales and rating systems, have limitations. Mostly based on retrospective surveys or lab studies, they struggle to be applied on a large scale or to show the importance and connections between different dream themes. To overcome these issues, we developed a new, data-driven mixed-method approach for identifying topics in free-form dream reports through natural language processing. We tested this method on 44,213 dream reports from Reddit's r/Dreams subreddit, where we found 217 topics, grouped into 22 larger themes: the most extensive collection of dream topics to date. We validated our topics by comparing it to the widely-used Hall and van de Castle scale. Going beyond traditional scales, our method can find unique patterns in different dream types (like nightmares or recurring dreams), understand topic importance and connections, and observe changes in collective dream experiences over time and around major events, like the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent Russo-Ukrainian war. We envision that the applications of our method will provide valuable insights into the intricate nature of dreaming.

Is a prompt and a few samples all you need? Using GPT-4 for data augmentation in low-resource classification tasks

Obtaining and annotating data can be expensive and time-consuming, especially in complex, low-resource domains. We use GPT-4 and ChatGPT to augment small labeled datasets with synthetic data via simple prompts, in three different classification tasks with varying complexity. For each task, we randomly select a base sample of 500 texts to generate 5,000 new synthetic samples. We explore two augmentation strategies: one that preserves original label distribution and another that balances the distribution. Using a progressively larger training sample size, we train and evaluate a 110M parameter multilingual language model on the real and synthetic data separately. We also test GPT-4 and ChatGPT in a zero-shot setting on the test sets. We observe that GPT-4 and ChatGPT have strong zero-shot performance across all tasks. We find that data augmented with synthetic samples yields a good downstream performance, and particularly aids in low-resource settings, such as in identifying rare classes. Human-annotated data exhibits a strong predictive power, overtaking synthetic data in two out of the three tasks. This finding highlights the need for more complex prompts for synthetic datasets to consistently surpass human-generated ones.

Epidemic Dreams: Dreaming about health during the COVID-19 pandemic

The continuity hypothesis of dreams suggests that the content of dreams is continuous with the dreamer's waking experiences. Given the unprecedented nature of the experiences during COVID-19, we studied the continuity hypothesis in the context of the pandemic. We implemented a deep-learning algorithm that can extract mentions of medical conditions from text and applied it to two datasets collected during the pandemic: 2,888 dream reports (dreaming life experiences), and 57M tweets mentioning the pandemic (waking life experiences). The health expressions common to both sets were typical COVID-19 symptoms (e.g., cough, fever, and anxiety), suggesting that dreams reflected people's real-world experiences. The health expressions that distinguished the two sets reflected differences in thought processes: expressions in waking life reflected a linear and logical thought process and, as such, described realistic symptoms or related disorders (e.g., nasal pain, SARS, H1N1); those in dreaming life reflected a thought process closer to the visual and emotional spheres and, as such, described either conditions unrelated to the virus (e.g., maggots, deformities, snakebites), or conditions of surreal nature (e.g., teeth falling out, body crumbling into sand). Our results confirm that dream reports represent an understudied yet valuable source of people's health experiences in the real world.

The Healthy States of America: Creating a Health Taxonomy with Social Media

Since the uptake of social media, researchers have mined online discussions to track the outbreak and evolution of specific diseases or chronic conditions such as influenza or depression. To broaden the set of diseases under study, we developed a Deep Learning tool for Natural Language Processing that extracts mentions of virtually any medical condition or disease from unstructured social media text. With that tool at hand, we processed Reddit and Twitter posts, analyzed the clusters of the two resulting co-occurrence networks of conditions, and discovered that they correspond to well-defined categories of medical conditions. This resulted in the creation of the first comprehensive taxonomy of medical conditions automatically derived from online discussions. We validated the structure of our taxonomy against the official International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-11), finding matches of our clusters with 20 official categories, out of 22. Based on the mentions of our taxonomy's sub-categories on Reddit posts geo-referenced in the U.S., we were then able to compute disease-specific health scores. As opposed to counts of disease mentions or counts with no knowledge of our taxonomy's structure, we found that our disease-specific health scores are causally linked with the officially reported prevalence of 18 conditions.

The Language of Dialogue Is Complex

Integrative Complexity (IC) is a psychometric that measures the ability of a person to recognize multiple perspectives and connect them, thus identifying paths for conflict resolution. IC has been linked to a wide variety of political, social and personal outcomes but evaluating it is a time-consuming process requiring skilled professionals to manually score texts, a fact which accounts for the limited exploration of IC at scale on social media.We combine natural language processing and machine learning to train an IC classification model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on unseen data and more closely adheres to the established structure of the IC coding process than previous automated approaches. When applied to the content of 400k+ comments from online fora about depression and knowledge exchange, our model was capable of replicating key findings of prior work, thus providing the first example of using IC tools for large-scale social media analytics.

People are Strange when you're a Stranger: Impact and Influence of Bots on Social Networks

Bots are, for many Web and social media users, the source of many dangerous attacks or the carrier of unwanted messages, such as spam. Nevertheless, crawlers and software agents are a precious tool for analysts, and they are continuously executed to collect data or to test distributed applications. However, no one knows which is the real potential of a bot whose purpose is to control a community, to manipulate consensus, or to influence user behavior. It is commonly believed that the better an agent simulates human behavior in a social network, the more it can succeed to generate an impact in that community. We contribute to shed light on this issue through an online social experiment aimed to study to what extent a bot with no trust, no profile, and no aims to reproduce human behavior, can become popular and influential in a social media. Results show that a basic social probing activity can be used to acquire social relevance on the network and that the so-acquired popularity can be effectively leveraged to drive users in their social connectivity choices. We also register that our bot activity unveiled hidden social polarization patterns in the community and triggered an emotional response of individuals that brings to light subtle privacy hazards perceived by the user base.