Social Interpretable Tree for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

Understanding the multiple socially-acceptable future behaviors is an essential task for many vision applications. In this paper, we propose a tree-based method, termed as Social Interpretable Tree (SIT), to address this multi-modal prediction task, where a hand-crafted tree is built depending on the prior information of observed trajectory to model multiple future trajectories. Specifically, a path in the tree from the root to leaf represents an individual possible future trajectory. SIT employs a coarse-to-fine optimization strategy, in which the tree is first built by high-order velocity to balance the complexity and coverage of the tree and then optimized greedily to encourage multimodality. Finally, a teacher-forcing refining operation is used to predict the final fine trajectory. Compared with prior methods which leverage implicit latent variables to represent possible future trajectories, the path in the tree can explicitly explain the rough moving behaviors (e.g., go straight and then turn right), and thus provides better interpretability. Despite the hand-crafted tree, the experimental results on ETH-UCY and Stanford Drone datasets demonstrate that our method is capable of matching or exceeding the performance of state-of-the-art methods. Interestingly, the experiments show that the raw built tree without training outperforms many prior deep neural network based approaches. Meanwhile, our method presents sufficient flexibility in long-term prediction and different best-of-$K$ predictions.

SGCN:Sparse Graph Convolution Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is a key technology in autopilot, which remains to be very challenging due to complex interactions between pedestrians. However, previous works based on dense undirected interaction suffer from modeling superfluous interactions and neglect of trajectory motion tendency, and thus inevitably result in a considerable deviance from the reality. To cope with these issues, we present a Sparse Graph Convolution Network~(SGCN) for pedestrian trajectory prediction. Specifically, the SGCN explicitly models the sparse directed interaction with a sparse directed spatial graph to capture adaptive interaction pedestrians. Meanwhile, we use a sparse directed temporal graph to model the motion tendency, thus to facilitate the prediction based on the observed direction. Finally, parameters of a bi-Gaussian distribution for trajectory prediction are estimated by fusing the above two sparse graphs. We evaluate our proposed method on the ETH and UCY datasets, and the experimental results show our method outperforms comparative state-of-the-art methods by 9% in Average Displacement Error(ADE) and 13% in Final Displacement Error(FDE). Notably, visualizations indicate that our method can capture adaptive interactions between pedestrians and their effective motion tendencies.