Evaluating the World Model Implicit in a Generative Model

Recent work suggests that large language models may implicitly learn world models. How should we assess this possibility? We formalize this question for the case where the underlying reality is governed by a deterministic finite automaton. This includes problems as diverse as simple logical reasoning, geographic navigation, game-playing, and chemistry. We propose new evaluation metrics for world model recovery inspired by the classic Myhill-Nerode theorem from language theory. We illustrate their utility in three domains: game playing, logic puzzles, and navigation. In all domains, the generative models we consider do well on existing diagnostics for assessing world models, but our evaluation metrics reveal their world models to be far less coherent than they appear. Such incoherence creates fragility: using a generative model to solve related but subtly different tasks can lead it to fail badly. Building generative models that meaningfully capture the underlying logic of the domains they model would be immensely valuable; our results suggest new ways to assess how close a given model is to that goal.

Improved Frequency Estimation Algorithms with and without Predictions

Estimating frequencies of elements appearing in a data stream is a key task in large-scale data analysis. Popular sketching approaches to this problem (e.g., CountMin and CountSketch) come with worst-case guarantees that probabilistically bound the error of the estimated frequencies for any possible input. The work of Hsu et al. (2019) introduced the idea of using machine learning to tailor sketching algorithms to the specific data distribution they are being run on. In particular, their learning-augmented frequency estimation algorithm uses a learned heavy-hitter oracle which predicts which elements will appear many times in the stream. We give a novel algorithm, which in some parameter regimes, already theoretically outperforms the learning based algorithm of Hsu et al. without the use of any predictions. Augmenting our algorithm with heavy-hitter predictions further reduces the error and improves upon the state of the art. Empirically, our algorithms achieve superior performance in all experiments compared to prior approaches.

Constant Approximation for Individual Preference Stable Clustering

Individual preference (IP) stability, introduced by Ahmadi et al. (ICML 2022), is a natural clustering objective inspired by stability and fairness constraints. A clustering is $\alpha$-IP stable if the average distance of every data point to its own cluster is at most $\alpha$ times the average distance to any other cluster. Unfortunately, determining if a dataset admits a $1$-IP stable clustering is NP-Hard. Moreover, before this work, it was unknown if an $o(n)$-IP stable clustering always \emph{exists}, as the prior state of the art only guaranteed an $O(n)$-IP stable clustering. We close this gap in understanding and show that an $O(1)$-IP stable clustering always exists for general metrics, and we give an efficient algorithm which outputs such a clustering. We also introduce generalizations of IP stability beyond average distance and give efficient, near-optimal algorithms in the cases where we consider the maximum and minimum distances within and between clusters.

Data Structures for Density Estimation

We study statistical/computational tradeoffs for the following density estimation problem: given $k$ distributions $v_1, \ldots, v_k$ over a discrete domain of size $n$, and sampling access to a distribution $p$, identify $v_i$ that is "close" to $p$. Our main result is the first data structure that, given a sublinear (in $n$) number of samples from $p$, identifies $v_i$ in time sublinear in $k$. We also give an improved version of the algorithm of Acharya et al. (2018) that reports $v_i$ in time linear in $k$. The experimental evaluation of the latter algorithm shows that it achieves a significant reduction in the number of operations needed to achieve a given accuracy compared to prior work.

Learned Interpolation for Better Streaming Quantile Approximation with Worst-Case Guarantees

An $\varepsilon$-approximate quantile sketch over a stream of $n$ inputs approximates the rank of any query point $q$ - that is, the number of input points less than $q$ - up to an additive error of $\varepsilon n$, generally with some probability of at least $1 - 1/\mathrm{poly}(n)$, while consuming $o(n)$ space. While the celebrated KLL sketch of Karnin, Lang, and Liberty achieves a provably optimal quantile approximation algorithm over worst-case streams, the approximations it achieves in practice are often far from optimal. Indeed, the most commonly used technique in practice is Dunning's t-digest, which often achieves much better approximations than KLL on real-world data but is known to have arbitrarily large errors in the worst case. We apply interpolation techniques to the streaming quantiles problem to attempt to achieve better approximations on real-world data sets than KLL while maintaining similar guarantees in the worst case.

Improved Space Bounds for Learning with Experts

We give improved tradeoffs between space and regret for the online learning with expert advice problem over $T$ days with $n$ experts. Given a space budget of $n^{\delta}$ for $\delta \in (0,1)$, we provide an algorithm achieving regret $\tilde{O}(n^2 T^{1/(1+\delta)})$, improving upon the regret bound $\tilde{O}(n^2 T^{2/(2+\delta)})$ in the recent work of [PZ23]. The improvement is particularly salient in the regime $\delta \rightarrow 1$ where the regret of our algorithm approaches $\tilde{O}_n(\sqrt{T})$, matching the $T$ dependence in the standard online setting without space restrictions.

Exponentially Improving the Complexity of Simulating the Weisfeiler-Lehman Test with Graph Neural Networks

Recent work shows that the expressive power of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in distinguishing non-isomorphic graphs is exactly the same as that of the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) graph test. In particular, they show that the WL test can be simulated by GNNs. However, those simulations involve neural networks for the 'combine' function of size polynomial or even exponential in the number of graph nodes $n$, as well as feature vectors of length linear in $n$. We present an improved simulation of the WL test on GNNs with \emph{exponentially} lower complexity. In particular, the neural network implementing the combine function in each node has only a polylogarithmic number of parameters in $n$, and the feature vectors exchanged by the nodes of GNN consists of only $O(\log n)$ bits. We also give logarithmic lower bounds for the feature vector length and the size of the neural networks, showing the (near)-optimality of our construction.

Triangle and Four Cycle Counting with Predictions in Graph Streams

We propose data-driven one-pass streaming algorithms for estimating the number of triangles and four cycles, two fundamental problems in graph analytics that are widely studied in the graph data stream literature. Recently, (Hsu 2018) and (Jiang 2020) applied machine learning techniques in other data stream problems, using a trained oracle that can predict certain properties of the stream elements to improve on prior "classical" algorithms that did not use oracles. In this paper, we explore the power of a "heavy edge" oracle in multiple graph edge streaming models. In the adjacency list model, we present a one-pass triangle counting algorithm improving upon the previous space upper bounds without such an oracle. In the arbitrary order model, we present algorithms for both triangle and four cycle estimation with fewer passes and the same space complexity as in previous algorithms, and we show several of these bounds are optimal. We analyze our algorithms under several noise models, showing that the algorithms perform well even when the oracle errs. Our methodology expands upon prior work on "classical" streaming algorithms, as previous multi-pass and random order streaming algorithms can be seen as special cases of our algorithms, where the first pass or random order was used to implement the heavy edge oracle. Lastly, our experiments demonstrate advantages of the proposed method compared to state-of-the-art streaming algorithms.

Online Bipartite Matching with Predicted Degrees

We propose a model for online graph problems where algorithms are given access to an oracle that predicts the degrees of nodes in the graph (e.g., based on past data). Within this model, we study the classic problem of online bipartite matching. An extensive empirical evaluation shows that a greedy algorithm called MinPredictedDegree compares favorably to state-of-the-art online algorithms for this problem. We also initiate the theoretical study of MinPredictedDegree on a natural random graph model with power law degree distribution and show that it produces matchings almost as large as the maximum matching on such graphs.

How bad is worst-case data if you know where it comes from?

We introduce a framework for studying how distributional assumptions on the process by which data is partitioned into a training and test set can be leveraged to provide accurate estimation or learning algorithms, even for worst-case datasets. We consider a setting of $n$ datapoints, $x_1,\ldots,x_n$, together with a specified distribution, $P$, over partitions of these datapoints into a training set, test set, and irrelevant set. An algorithm takes as input a description of $P$ (or sample access), the indices of the test and training sets, and the datapoints in the training set, and returns a model or estimate that will be evaluated on the datapoints in the test set. We evaluate an algorithm in terms of its worst-case expected performance: the expected performance over potential test/training sets, for worst-case datapoints, $x_1,\ldots,x_n.$ This framework is a departure from more typical distributional assumptions on the datapoints (e.g. that data is drawn independently, or according to an exchangeable process), and can model a number of natural data collection processes, including processes with dependencies such as "snowball sampling" and "chain sampling", and settings where test and training sets satisfy chronological constraints (e.g. the test instances were observed after the training instances). Within this framework, we consider the setting where datapoints are bounded real numbers, and the goal is to estimate the mean of the test set. We give an efficient algorithm that returns a weighted combination of the training set---whose weights depend on the distribution, $P$, and on the training and test set indices---and show that the worst-case expected error achieved by this algorithm is at most a multiplicative $\pi/2$ factor worse than the optimal of such algorithms. The algorithm, and its proof, leverage a surprising connection to the Grothendieck problem.