Joint Out-of-Distribution Detection and Uncertainty Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.

Joint Out-of-Distribution Detection and Uncertainty Estimation for Trajectory Predictio

Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.

LMR: Lane Distance-Based Metric for Trajectory Prediction

The development of approaches for trajectory prediction requires metrics to validate and compare their performance. Currently established metrics are based on Euclidean distance, which means that errors are weighted equally in all directions. Euclidean metrics are insufficient for structured environments like roads, since they do not properly capture the agent's intent relative to the underlying lane. In order to provide a reasonable assessment of trajectory prediction approaches with regard to the downstream planning task, we propose a new metric that is lane distance-based: Lane Miss Rate (LMR). For the calculation of LMR, the ground-truth and predicted endpoints are assigned to lane segments, more precisely their centerlines. Measured by the distance along the lane segments, predictions that are within a certain threshold distance to the ground-truth count as hits, otherwise they count as misses. LMR is then defined as the ratio of sequences that yield a miss. Our results on three state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models show that LMR preserves the order of Euclidean distance-based metrics. In contrast to the Euclidean Miss Rate, qualitative results show that LMR yields misses for sequences where predictions are located on wrong lanes. Hits on the other hand result for sequences where predictions are located on the correct lane. This means that LMR implicitly weights Euclidean error relative to the lane and goes into the direction of capturing intents of traffic agents. The source code of LMR for Argoverse 2 is publicly available.

RESET: Revisiting Trajectory Sets for Conditional Behavior Prediction

It is desirable to predict the behavior of traffic participants conditioned on different planned trajectories of the autonomous vehicle. This allows the downstream planner to estimate the impact of its decisions. Recent approaches for conditional behavior prediction rely on a regression decoder, meaning that coordinates or polynomial coefficients are regressed. In this work we revisit set-based trajectory prediction, where the probability of each trajectory in a predefined trajectory set is determined by a classification model, and first-time employ it to the task of conditional behavior prediction. We propose RESET, which combines a new metric-driven algorithm for trajectory set generation with a graph-based encoder. For unconditional prediction, RESET achieves comparable performance to a regression-based approach. Due to the nature of set-based approaches, it has the advantageous property of being able to predict a flexible number of trajectories without influencing runtime or complexity. For conditional prediction, RESET achieves reasonable results with late fusion of the planned trajectory, which was not observed for regression-based approaches before. This means that RESET is computationally lightweight to combine with a planner that proposes multiple future plans of the autonomous vehicle, as large parts of the forward pass can be reused.

Exploring Navigation Maps for Learning-Based Motion Prediction

The prediction of surrounding agents' motion is a key for safe autonomous driving. In this paper, we explore navigation maps as an alternative to the predominant High Definition (HD) maps for learning-based motion prediction. Navigation maps provide topological and geometrical information on road-level, HD maps additionally have centimeter-accurate lane-level information. As a result, HD maps are costly and time-consuming to obtain, while navigation maps with near-global coverage are freely available. We describe an approach to integrate navigation maps into learning-based motion prediction models. To exploit locally available HD maps during training, we additionally propose a model-agnostic method for knowledge distillation. In experiments on the publicly available Argoverse dataset with navigation maps obtained from OpenStreetMap, our approach shows a significant improvement over not using a map at all. Combined with our method for knowledge distillation, we achieve results that are close to the original HD map-reliant models. Our publicly available navigation map API for Argoverse enables researchers to develop and evaluate their own approaches using navigation maps.

SCENE: Reasoning about Traffic Scenes using Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks

Understanding traffic scenes requires considering heterogeneous information about dynamic agents and the static infrastructure. In this work we propose SCENE, a methodology to encode diverse traffic scenes in heterogeneous graphs and to reason about these graphs using a heterogeneous Graph Neural Network encoder and task-specific decoders. The heterogeneous graphs, whose structures are defined by an ontology, consist of different nodes with type-specific node features and different relations with type-specific edge features. In order to exploit all the information given by these graphs, we propose to use cascaded layers of graph convolution. The result is an encoding of the scene. Task-specific decoders can be applied to predict desired attributes of the scene. Extensive evaluation on two diverse binary node classification tasks show the main strength of this methodology: despite being generic, it even manages to outperform task-specific baselines. The further application of our methodology to the task of node classification in various knowledge graphs shows its transferability to other domains.

A Benchmark for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection in Multi-Agent Trajectories

Human intuition allows to detect abnormal driving scenarios in situations they never experienced before. Like humans detect those abnormal situations and take countermeasures to prevent collisions, self-driving cars need anomaly detection mechanisms. However, the literature lacks a standard benchmark for the comparison of anomaly detection algorithms. We fill the gap and propose the R-U-MAAD benchmark for unsupervised anomaly detection in multi-agent trajectories. The goal is to learn a representation of the normal driving from the training sequences without labels, and afterwards detect anomalies. We use the Argoverse Motion Forecasting dataset for the training and propose a test dataset of 160 sequences with human-annotated anomalies in urban environments. To this end we combine a replay of real-world trajectories and scene-dependent abnormal driving in the simulation. In our experiments we compare 11 baselines including linear models, deep auto-encoders and one-class classification models using standard anomaly detection metrics. The deep reconstruction and end-to-end one-class methods show promising results. The benchmark and the baseline models will be publicly available.

MEAT: Maneuver Extraction from Agent Trajectories

Advances in learning-based trajectory prediction are enabled by large-scale datasets. However, in-depth analysis of such datasets is limited. Moreover, the evaluation of prediction models is limited to metrics averaged over all samples in the dataset. We propose an automated methodology that allows to extract maneuvers (e.g., left turn, lane change) from agent trajectories in such datasets. The methodology considers information about the agent dynamics and information about the lane segments the agent traveled along. Although it is possible to use the resulting maneuvers for training classification networks, we exemplary use them for extensive trajectory dataset analysis and maneuver-specific evaluation of multiple state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Additionally, an analysis of the datasets and an evaluation of the prediction models based on the agent dynamics is provided.

CRAT-Pred: Vehicle Trajectory Prediction with Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks and Multi-Head Self-Attention

Predicting the motion of surrounding vehicles is essential for autonomous vehicles, as it governs their own motion plan. Current state-of-the-art vehicle prediction models heavily rely on map information. In reality, however, this information is not always available. We therefore propose CRAT-Pred, a multi-modal and non-rasterization-based trajectory prediction model, specifically designed to effectively model social interactions between vehicles, without relying on map information. CRAT-Pred applies a graph convolution method originating from the field of material science to vehicle prediction, allowing to efficiently leverage edge features, and combines it with multi-head self-attention. Compared to other map-free approaches, the model achieves state-of-the-art performance with a significantly lower number of model parameters. In addition to that, we quantitatively show that the self-attention mechanism is able to learn social interactions between vehicles, with the weights representing a measurable interaction score. The source code is publicly available.