Ranking Inferences Based on the Top Choice of Multiway Comparisons

This paper considers ranking inference of $n$ items based on the observed data on the top choice among $M$ randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for $M$-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to $M=2$. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any $M$ distinguished items are selected for comparisons with probability $p$ and the selected $M$ items are compared $L$ times with multinomial outcomes, we establish the statistical rates of convergence for underlying $n$ preference scores using both $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm, with the minimum sampling complexity. In addition, we establish the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator that allows us to construct confidence intervals for the underlying scores. Furthermore, we propose a novel inference framework for ranking items through a sophisticated maximum pairwise difference statistic whose distribution is estimated via a valid Gaussian multiplier bootstrap. The estimated distribution is then used to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for the differences in the preference scores and the ranks of individual items. They also enable us to address various inference questions on the ranks of these items. Extensive simulation studies lend further support to our theoretical results. A real data application illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methods convincingly.

SIMPLE-RC: Group Network Inference with Non-Sharp Nulls and Weak Signals

Large-scale network inference with uncertainty quantification has important applications in natural, social, and medical sciences. The recent work of Fan, Fan, Han and Lv (2022) introduced a general framework of statistical inference on membership profiles in large networks (SIMPLE) for testing the sharp null hypothesis that a pair of given nodes share the same membership profiles. In real applications, there are often groups of nodes under investigation that may share similar membership profiles at the presence of relatively weaker signals than the setting considered in SIMPLE. To address these practical challenges, in this paper we propose a SIMPLE method with random coupling (SIMPLE-RC) for testing the non-sharp null hypothesis that a group of given nodes share similar (not necessarily identical) membership profiles under weaker signals. Utilizing the idea of random coupling, we construct our test as the maximum of the SIMPLE tests for subsampled node pairs from the group. Such technique reduces significantly the correlation among individual SIMPLE tests while largely maintaining the power, enabling delicate analysis on the asymptotic distributions of the SIMPLE-RC test. Our method and theory cover both the cases with and without node degree heterogeneity. These new theoretical developments are empowered by a second-order expansion of spiked eigenvectors under the $\ell_\infty$-norm, built upon our work for random matrices with weak spikes. Our theoretical results and the practical advantages of the newly suggested method are demonstrated through several simulation and real data examples.

Factor-Augmented Regularized Model for Hazard Regression

A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards model in presence of correlated covariates with factor structure, we propose a new model, Factor-Augmented Regularized Model for Hazard Regression (FarmHazard), which builds upon latent factors that drive covariate dependence and extends Cox's model. This new model generates procedures that operate in two steps by learning factors and idiosyncratic components from high-dimensional covariate vectors and then using them as new predictors. Cox's model is a widely used semi-parametric model for survival analysis, where censored data and time-dependent covariates bring additional technical challenges. We prove model selection consistency and estimation consistency under mild conditions. We also develop a factor-augmented variable screening procedure to deal with strong correlations in ultra-high dimensional problems. Extensive simulations and real data experiments demonstrate that our procedures enjoy good performance and achieve better results on model selection, out-of-sample C-index and screening than alternative methods.

Strategic Decision-Making in the Presence of Information Asymmetry: Provably Efficient RL with Algorithmic Instruments

We study offline reinforcement learning under a novel model called strategic MDP, which characterizes the strategic interactions between a principal and a sequence of myopic agents with private types. Due to the bilevel structure and private types, strategic MDP involves information asymmetry between the principal and the agents. We focus on the offline RL problem, where the goal is to learn the optimal policy of the principal concerning a target population of agents based on a pre-collected dataset that consists of historical interactions. The unobserved private types confound such a dataset as they affect both the rewards and observations received by the principal. We propose a novel algorithm, Pessimistic policy Learning with Algorithmic iNstruments (PLAN), which leverages the ideas of instrumental variable regression and the pessimism principle to learn a near-optimal principal's policy in the context of general function approximation. Our algorithm is based on the critical observation that the principal's actions serve as valid instrumental variables. In particular, under a partial coverage assumption on the offline dataset, we prove that PLAN outputs a $1 / \sqrt{K}$-optimal policy with $K$ being the number of collected trajectories. We further apply our framework to some special cases of strategic MDP, including strategic regression, strategic bandit, and noncompliance in recommendation systems.

Robust Matrix Completion with Heavy-tailed Noise

This paper studies low-rank matrix completion in the presence of heavy-tailed and possibly asymmetric noise, where we aim to estimate an underlying low-rank matrix given a set of highly incomplete noisy entries. Though the matrix completion problem has attracted much attention in the past decade, there is still lack of theoretical understanding when the observations are contaminated by heavy-tailed noises. Prior theory falls short of explaining the empirical results and is unable to capture the optimal dependence of the estimation error on the noise level. In this paper, we adopt an adaptive Huber loss to accommodate heavy-tailed noise, which is robust against large and possibly asymmetric errors when the parameter in the loss function is carefully designed to balance the Huberization biases and robustness to outliers. Then, we propose an efficient nonconvex algorithm via a balanced low-rank Burer-Monteiro matrix factorization and gradient decent with robust spectral initialization. We prove that under merely bounded second moment condition on the error distributions, rather than the sub-Gaussian assumption, the Euclidean error of the iterates generated by the proposed algorithm decrease geometrically fast until achieving a minimax-optimal statistical estimation error, which has the same order as that in the sub-Gaussian case. The key technique behind this significant advancement is a powerful leave-one-out analysis framework. The theoretical results are corroborated by our simulation studies.

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Is Minimax-Optimal for Offline Zero-Sum Markov Games

This paper makes progress towards learning Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum Markov games from offline data. Specifically, consider a $\gamma$-discounted infinite-horizon Markov game with $S$ states, where the max-player has $A$ actions and the min-player has $B$ actions. We propose a pessimistic model-based algorithm with Bernstein-style lower confidence bounds -- called VI-LCB-Game -- that provably finds an $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium with a sample complexity no larger than $\frac{C_{\mathsf{clipped}}^{\star}S(A+B)}{(1-\gamma)^{3}\varepsilon^{2}}$ (up to some log factor). Here, $C_{\mathsf{clipped}}^{\star}$ is some unilateral clipped concentrability coefficient that reflects the coverage and distribution shift of the available data (vis-\`a-vis the target data), and the target accuracy $\varepsilon$ can be any value within $\big(0,\frac{1}{1-\gamma}\big]$. Our sample complexity bound strengthens prior art by a factor of $\min\{A,B\}$, achieving minimax optimality for the entire $\varepsilon$-range. An appealing feature of our result lies in algorithmic simplicity, which reveals the unnecessity of variance reduction and sample splitting in achieving sample optimality.

How do noise tails impact on deep ReLU networks?

This paper investigates the stability of deep ReLU neural networks for nonparametric regression under the assumption that the noise has only a finite p-th moment. We unveil how the optimal rate of convergence depends on p, the degree of smoothness and the intrinsic dimension in a class of nonparametric regression functions with hierarchical composition structure when both the adaptive Huber loss and deep ReLU neural networks are used. This optimal rate of convergence cannot be obtained by the ordinary least squares but can be achieved by the Huber loss with a properly chosen parameter that adapts to the sample size, smoothness, and moment parameters. A concentration inequality for the adaptive Huber ReLU neural network estimators with allowable optimization errors is also derived. To establish a matching lower bound within the class of neural network estimators using the Huber loss, we employ a different strategy from the traditional route: constructing a deep ReLU network estimator that has a better empirical loss than the true function and the difference between these two functions furnishes a low bound. This step is related to the Huberization bias, yet more critically to the approximability of deep ReLU networks. As a result, we also contribute some new results on the approximation theory of deep ReLU neural networks.

The Efficacy of Pessimism in Asynchronous Q-Learning

This paper is concerned with the asynchronous form of Q-learning, which applies a stochastic approximation scheme to Markovian data samples. Motivated by the recent advances in offline reinforcement learning, we develop an algorithmic framework that incorporates the principle of pessimism into asynchronous Q-learning, which penalizes infrequently-visited state-action pairs based on suitable lower confidence bounds (LCBs). This framework leads to, among other things, improved sample efficiency and enhanced adaptivity in the presence of near-expert data. Our approach permits the observed data in some important scenarios to cover only partial state-action space, which is in stark contrast to prior theory that requires uniform coverage of all state-action pairs. When coupled with the idea of variance reduction, asynchronous Q-learning with LCB penalization achieves near-optimal sample complexity, provided that the target accuracy level is small enough. In comparison, prior works were suboptimal in terms of the dependency on the effective horizon even when i.i.d. sampling is permitted. Our results deliver the first theoretical support for the use of pessimism principle in the presence of Markovian non-i.i.d. data.

Are Latent Factor Regression and Sparse Regression Adequate?

We propose the Factor Augmented sparse linear Regression Model (FARM) that not only encompasses both the latent factor regression and sparse linear regression as special cases but also bridges dimension reduction and sparse regression together. We provide theoretical guarantees for the estimation of our model under the existence of sub-Gaussian and heavy-tailed noises (with bounded (1+x)-th moment, for all x>0), respectively. In addition, the existing works on supervised learning often assume the latent factor regression or the sparse linear regression is the true underlying model without justifying its adequacy. To fill in such an important gap, we also leverage our model as the alternative model to test the sufficiency of the latent factor regression and the sparse linear regression models. To accomplish these goals, we propose the Factor-Adjusted de-Biased Test (FabTest) and a two-stage ANOVA type test respectively. We also conduct large-scale numerical experiments including both synthetic and FRED macroeconomics data to corroborate the theoretical properties of our methods. Numerical results illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of our model against latent factor regression and sparse linear regression models.

Curriculum Learning for Vision-and-Language Navigation

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) is a task where an agent navigates in an embodied indoor environment under human instructions. Previous works ignore the distribution of sample difficulty and we argue that this potentially degrade their agent performance. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel curriculum-based training paradigm for VLN tasks that can balance human prior knowledge and agent learning progress about training samples. We develop the principle of curriculum design and re-arrange the benchmark Room-to-Room (R2R) dataset to make it suitable for curriculum training. Experiments show that our method is model-agnostic and can significantly improve the performance, the generalizability, and the training efficiency of current state-of-the-art navigation agents without increasing model complexity.