Stories that (are) Move(d by) Markets: A Causal Exploration of Market Shocks and Semantic Shifts across Different Partisan Groups

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show that shifts in semantic embedding space can be causally linked to financial market shocks -- deviations from the expected market behaviour. Furthermore, we show how partisanship can influence the predictive power of text for market fluctuations and shape reactions to those same shocks. We also provide some evidence that text-based signals are particularly salient during unexpected events such as COVID-19, highlighting the value of language data as an exogenous variable in economic forecasting. Our findings underscore the bidirectional relationship between news outlets and market shocks, offering a novel empirical approach to studying their effect on each other.

When Dimensionality Hurts: The Role of LLM Embedding Compression for Noisy Regression Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable success in language modelling due to scaling laws found in model size and the hidden dimension of the model's text representation. Yet, we demonstrate that compressed representations of text can yield better performance in LLM-based regression tasks. In this paper, we compare the relative performance of embedding compression in three different signal-to-noise contexts: financial return prediction, writing quality assessment and review scoring. Our results show that compressing embeddings, in a minimally supervised manner using an autoencoder's hidden representation, can mitigate overfitting and improve performance on noisy tasks, such as financial return prediction; but that compression reduces performance on tasks that have high causal dependencies between the input and target data. Our results suggest that the success of interpretable compressed representations such as sentiment may be due to a regularising effect.

Traditional Methods Outperform Generative LLMs at Forecasting Credit Ratings

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to perform well for many downstream tasks. Transfer learning can enable LLMs to acquire skills that were not targeted during pre-training. In financial contexts, LLMs can sometimes beat well-established benchmarks. This paper investigates how well LLMs perform in the task of forecasting corporate credit ratings. We show that while LLMs are very good at encoding textual information, traditional methods are still very competitive when it comes to encoding numeric and multimodal data. For our task, current LLMs perform worse than a more traditional XGBoost architecture that combines fundamental and macroeconomic data with high-density text-based embedding features.

Decoding Climate Disagreement: A Graph Neural Network-Based Approach to Understanding Social Media Dynamics

This work introduces the ClimateSent-GAT Model, an innovative method that integrates Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with techniques from natural language processing to accurately identify and predict disagreements within Reddit comment-reply pairs. Our model classifies disagreements into three categories: agree, disagree, and neutral. Leveraging the inherent graph structure of Reddit comment-reply pairs, the model significantly outperforms existing benchmarks by capturing complex interaction patterns and sentiment dynamics. This research advances graph-based NLP methodologies and provides actionable insights for policymakers and educators in climate science communication.

Time Machine GPT

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

Probing Large Language Models for Scalar Adjective Lexical Semantics and Scalar Diversity Pragmatics

Scalar adjectives pertain to various domain scales and vary in intensity within each scale (e.g. certain is more intense than likely on the likelihood scale). Scalar implicatures arise from the consideration of alternative statements which could have been made. They can be triggered by scalar adjectives and require listeners to reason pragmatically about them. Some scalar adjectives are more likely to trigger scalar implicatures than others. This phenomenon is referred to as scalar diversity. In this study, we probe different families of Large Language Models such as GPT-4 for their knowledge of the lexical semantics of scalar adjectives and one specific aspect of their pragmatics, namely scalar diversity. We find that they encode rich lexical-semantic information about scalar adjectives. However, the rich lexical-semantic knowledge does not entail a good understanding of scalar diversity. We also compare current models of different sizes and complexities and find that larger models are not always better. Finally, we explain our probing results by leveraging linguistic intuitions and model training objectives.

STEntConv: Predicting Disagreement with Stance Detection and a Signed Graph Convolutional Network

The rise of social media platforms has led to an increase in polarised online discussions, especially on political and socio-cultural topics such as elections and climate change. We propose a simple and novel unsupervised method to predict whether the authors of two posts agree or disagree, leveraging user stances about named entities obtained from their posts. We present STEntConv, a model which builds a graph of users and named entities weighted by stance and trains a Signed Graph Convolutional Network (SGCN) to detect disagreement between comment and reply posts. We run experiments and ablation studies and show that including this information improves disagreement detection performance on a dataset of Reddit posts for a range of controversial subreddit topics, without the need for platform-specific features or user history.

Graph-enhanced Large Language Models in Asynchronous Plan Reasoning

Reasoning about asynchronous plans is challenging since it requires sequential and parallel planning to optimize time costs. Can large language models (LLMs) succeed at this task? Here, we present the first large-scale study investigating this question. We find that a representative set of closed and open-source LLMs, including GPT-4 and LLaMA-2, behave poorly when not supplied with illustrations about the task-solving process in our benchmark AsyncHow. We propose a novel technique called Plan Like a Graph (PLaG) that combines graphs with natural language prompts and achieves state-of-the-art results. We show that although PLaG can boost model performance, LLMs still suffer from drastic degradation when task complexity increases, highlighting the limits of utilizing LLMs for simulating digital devices. We see our study as an exciting step towards using LLMs as efficient autonomous agents.

Unsupervised Detection of Contextualized Embedding Bias with Application to Ideology

We propose a fully unsupervised method to detect bias in contextualized embeddings. The method leverages the assortative information latently encoded by social networks and combines orthogonality regularization, structured sparsity learning, and graph neural networks to find the embedding subspace capturing this information. As a concrete example, we focus on the phenomenon of ideological bias: we introduce the concept of an ideological subspace, show how it can be found by applying our method to online discussion forums, and present techniques to probe it. Our experiments suggest that the ideological subspace encodes abstract evaluative semantics and reflects changes in the political left-right spectrum during the presidency of Donald Trump.

Forecasting COVID-19 Caseloads Using Unsupervised Embedding Clusters of Social Media Posts

We present a novel approach incorporating transformer-based language models into infectious disease modelling. Text-derived features are quantified by tracking high-density clusters of sentence-level representations of Reddit posts within specific US states' COVID-19 subreddits. We benchmark these clustered embedding features against features extracted from other high-quality datasets. In a threshold-classification task, we show that they outperform all other feature types at predicting upward trend signals, a significant result for infectious disease modelling in areas where epidemiological data is unreliable. Subsequently, in a time-series forecasting task we fully utilise the predictive power of the caseload and compare the relative strengths of using different supplementary datasets as covariate feature sets in a transformer-based time-series model.