A Long-term Value Prediction Framework In Video Ranking

Accurately modeling long-term value (LTV) at the ranking stage of short-video recommendation remains challenging. While delayed feedback and extended engagement have been explored, fine-grained attribution and robust position normalization at billion-scale are still underdeveloped. We propose a practical ranking-stage LTV framework addressing three challenges: position bias, attribution ambiguity, and temporal limitations. (1) Position bias: We introduce a Position-aware Debias Quantile (PDQ) module that normalizes engagement via quantile-based distributions, enabling position-robust LTV estimation without architectural changes. (2) Attribution ambiguity: We propose a multi-dimensional attribution module that learns continuous attribution strengths across contextual, behavioral, and content signals, replacing static rules to capture nuanced inter-video influence. A customized hybrid loss with explicit noise filtering improves causal clarity. (3) Temporal limitations: We present a cross-temporal author modeling module that builds censoring-aware, day-level LTV targets to capture creator-driven re-engagement over longer horizons; the design is extensible to other dimensions (e.g., topics, styles). Offline studies and online A/B tests show significant improvements in LTV metrics and stable trade-offs with short-term objectives. Implemented as task augmentation within an existing ranking model, the framework supports efficient training and serving, and has been deployed at billion-scale in Taobao's production system, delivering sustained engagement gains while remaining compatible with industrial constraints.

ReaSeq: Unleashing World Knowledge via Reasoning for Sequential Modeling

Industrial recommender systems face two fundamental limitations under the log-driven paradigm: (1) knowledge poverty in ID-based item representations that causes brittle interest modeling under data sparsity, and (2) systemic blindness to beyond-log user interests that constrains model performance within platform boundaries. These limitations stem from an over-reliance on shallow interaction statistics and close-looped feedback while neglecting the rich world knowledge about product semantics and cross-domain behavioral patterns that Large Language Models have learned from vast corpora. To address these challenges, we introduce ReaSeq, a reasoning-enhanced framework that leverages world knowledge in Large Language Models to address both limitations through explicit and implicit reasoning. Specifically, ReaSeq employs explicit Chain-of-Thought reasoning via multi-agent collaboration to distill structured product knowledge into semantically enriched item representations, and latent reasoning via Diffusion Large Language Models to infer plausible beyond-log behaviors. Deployed on Taobao's ranking system serving hundreds of millions of users, ReaSeq achieves substantial gains: >6.0% in IPV and CTR, >2.9% in Orders, and >2.5% in GMV, validating the effectiveness of world-knowledge-enhanced reasoning over purely log-driven approaches.