A Long-term Value Prediction Framework In Video Ranking

Accurately modeling long-term value (LTV) at the ranking stage of short-video recommendation remains challenging. While delayed feedback and extended engagement have been explored, fine-grained attribution and robust position normalization at billion-scale are still underdeveloped. We propose a practical ranking-stage LTV framework addressing three challenges: position bias, attribution ambiguity, and temporal limitations. (1) Position bias: We introduce a Position-aware Debias Quantile (PDQ) module that normalizes engagement via quantile-based distributions, enabling position-robust LTV estimation without architectural changes. (2) Attribution ambiguity: We propose a multi-dimensional attribution module that learns continuous attribution strengths across contextual, behavioral, and content signals, replacing static rules to capture nuanced inter-video influence. A customized hybrid loss with explicit noise filtering improves causal clarity. (3) Temporal limitations: We present a cross-temporal author modeling module that builds censoring-aware, day-level LTV targets to capture creator-driven re-engagement over longer horizons; the design is extensible to other dimensions (e.g., topics, styles). Offline studies and online A/B tests show significant improvements in LTV metrics and stable trade-offs with short-term objectives. Implemented as task augmentation within an existing ranking model, the framework supports efficient training and serving, and has been deployed at billion-scale in Taobao's production system, delivering sustained engagement gains while remaining compatible with industrial constraints.

Spatial Information Bottleneck for Interpretable Visual Recognition

Deep neural networks typically learn spatially entangled representations that conflate discriminative foreground features with spurious background correlations, thereby undermining model interpretability and robustness. We propose a novel understanding framework for gradient-based attribution from an information-theoretic perspective. We prove that, under mild conditions, the Vector-Jacobian Products (VJP) computed during backpropagation form minimal sufficient statistics of input features with respect to class labels. Motivated by this finding, we propose an encoding-decoding perspective : forward propagation encodes inputs into class space, while VJP in backpropagation decodes this encoding back to feature space. Therefore, we propose Spatial Information Bottleneck (S-IB) to spatially disentangle information flow. By maximizing mutual information between foreground VJP and inputs while minimizing mutual information in background regions, S-IB encourages networks to encode information only in class-relevant spatial regions. Since post-hoc explanation methods fundamentally derive from VJP computations, directly optimizing VJP's spatial structure during training improves visualization quality across diverse explanation paradigms. Experiments on five benchmarks demonstrate universal improvements across six explanation methods, achieving better foreground concentration and background suppression without method-specific tuning, alongside consistent classification accuracy gains.