Minimalist Traffic Prediction: Linear Layer Is All You Need

Traffic prediction is essential for the progression of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and the vision of smart cities. While Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have shown promise in this domain by leveraging Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) integrated with either RNNs or Transformers, they present challenges such as computational complexity, gradient issues, and resource-intensiveness. This paper addresses these challenges, advocating for three main solutions: a node-embedding approach, time series decomposition, and periodicity learning. We introduce STLinear, a minimalist model architecture designed for optimized efficiency and performance. Unlike traditional STGNNs, STlinear operates fully locally, avoiding inter-node data exchanges, and relies exclusively on linear layers, drastically cutting computational demands. Our empirical studies on real-world datasets confirm STLinear's prowess, matching or exceeding the accuracy of leading STGNNs, but with significantly reduced complexity and computation overhead (more than 95% reduction in MACs per epoch compared to state-of-the-art STGNN baseline published in 2023). In summary, STLinear emerges as a potent, efficient alternative to conventional STGNNs, with profound implications for the future of ITS and smart city initiatives.

Localised Adaptive Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network

Spatial-temporal graph models are prevailing for abstracting and modelling spatial and temporal dependencies. In this work, we ask the following question: whether and to what extent can we localise spatial-temporal graph models? We limit our scope to adaptive spatial-temporal graph neural networks (ASTGNNs), the state-of-the-art model architecture. Our approach to localisation involves sparsifying the spatial graph adjacency matrices. To this end, we propose Adaptive Graph Sparsification (AGS), a graph sparsification algorithm which successfully enables the localisation of ASTGNNs to an extreme extent (fully localisation). We apply AGS to two distinct ASTGNN architectures and nine spatial-temporal datasets. Intriguingly, we observe that spatial graphs in ASTGNNs can be sparsified by over 99.5\% without any decline in test accuracy. Furthermore, even when ASTGNNs are fully localised, becoming graph-less and purely temporal, we record no drop in accuracy for the majority of tested datasets, with only minor accuracy deterioration observed in the remaining datasets. However, when the partially or fully localised ASTGNNs are reinitialised and retrained on the same data, there is a considerable and consistent drop in accuracy. Based on these observations, we reckon that \textit{(i)} in the tested data, the information provided by the spatial dependencies is primarily included in the information provided by the temporal dependencies and, thus, can be essentially ignored for inference; and \textit{(ii)} although the spatial dependencies provide redundant information, it is vital for the effective training of ASTGNNs and thus cannot be ignored during training. Furthermore, the localisation of ASTGNNs holds the potential to reduce the heavy computation overhead required on large-scale spatial-temporal data and further enable the distributed deployment of ASTGNNs.

Hyper Attention Recurrent Neural Network: Tackling Temporal Covariate Shift in Time Series Analysis

Analyzing long time series with RNNs often suffers from infeasible training. Segmentation is therefore commonly used in data pre-processing. However, in non-stationary time series, there exists often distribution shift among different segments. RNN is easily swamped in the dilemma of fitting bias in these segments due to the lack of global information, leading to poor generalization, known as Temporal Covariate Shift (TCS) problem, which is only addressed by a recently proposed RNN-based model. One of the assumptions in TCS is that the distribution of all divided intervals under the same segment are identical. This assumption, however, may not be true on high-frequency time series, such as traffic flow, that also have large stochasticity. Besides, macro information across long periods isn't adequately considered in the latest RNN-based methods. To address the above issues, we propose Hyper Attention Recurrent Neural Network (HARNN) for the modeling of temporal patterns containing both micro and macro information. An HARNN consists of a meta layer for parameter generation and an attention-enabled main layer for inference. High-frequency segments are transformed into low-frequency segments and fed into the meta layers, while the first main layer consumes the same high-frequency segments as conventional methods. In this way, each low-frequency segment in the meta inputs generates a unique main layer, enabling the integration of both macro information and micro information for inference. This forces all main layers to predict the same target which fully harnesses the common knowledge in varied distributions when capturing temporal patterns. Evaluations on multiple benchmarks demonstrated that our model outperforms a couple of RNN-based methods on a federation of key metrics.